虎嗅

"Turmoil Rises: Some Face Tsunamis, Others Stand Amidst Starry Oceans"

原文:剧变袭来,有人滔天海啸,有人星辰大海

Hello! I'm your financial journalist friend. Today, we're going to discuss a rather sensitive but crucial topic: Is AI taking away our jobs, or is it actually creating bigger opportunities for us?

Recently, many young people have been feeling anxious, fearing that AI could become a “monster” that could push them out of their jobs. However, if you look at the latest data and trends, you'll find that the situation is much more complex—and also more interesting. It's similar to when smartphones first emerged; people worried that Nokia employees would lose their jobs, but in the end, while the number of phone sellers decreased, the number of people working on apps, in operations, and delivering food increased, and the entire way society worked changed.

Below, I'll break down the key points from this news into five aspects to explain them in plain language.

1. Don’t be scared by job cuts: AI is currently a job-creator

First of all, let's correct a common misconception. When people think of AI replacing humans, they often picture factories shutting down and workers lining up for benefits. But the data shows that AI is more like a “job-creator” rather than a “job-destroyer.”

Take the U.S. as an example: Since the rise of AI, about 200,000 jobs directly related to AI have been eliminated (such as in traditional customer service and basic coding), but at the same time, more than 1.3 million new jobs have been created!

Where have these 1.3 million new jobs gone?

  • Hardware and infrastructure: Building AI data centers and maintaining servers has created a huge industry, employing 600,000 people.
  • New job types: Roles like AI engineers, data annotators, and advanced deployment engineers have become highly sought-after.

Even research from Stanford University confirms this: Although AI has replaced some jobs in specific areas, there hasn’t been a widespread wave of unemployment. On the contrary, the global trend is positive; by 2030, it’s expected that 170 million new jobs will be created, and although 92 million old jobs will disappear, the net increase will still be 78 million.

In simple terms: Don’t panic. AI isn’t eliminating jobs; it’s reorganizing them. Old jobs are disappearing, but new, more lucrative ones are emerging.

2. Why do you find it hard to find a job? Because the “first job” is becoming less common

If the data is so positive, why are people still so anxious? Why do job descriptions on recruitment sites seem increasingly difficult to understand?

Here’s a harsh reality: AI is having the biggest impact on young people and entry-level jobs.

In the past, companies preferred to hire fresh graduates because they were cheap, obedient, and easy to train. They would start with basic tasks like coding, writing simple texts, and handling customer service, and after two years, they would become proficient. But now, AI can do these tasks well, quickly, and cheaply.

  • Companies’ priorities have changed: If AI can handle 80% of the repetitive, basic work, why would employers pay a lot for a new hire who needs training? They prefer to hire experienced workers or use AI instead.
  • Quiet layoffs: Many companies are not laying off large numbers of employees; instead, they stop hiring new ones. When old employees leave, the positions are not filled, or AI is used to replace them.

Data shows that 2024 is a turning point. In industries that are easily replaced by AI, the employment rate for 22-25-year-olds has decreased by 13%, and in some cases, it has even increased by 19%. In the U.S., the unemployment rate for college graduates has risen by 30%, while the overall labor force has only increased by 18%.

In simple terms: The bar for getting a job has gone up. In the past, you could get a job and then learn on the job; now, you need to have the skills needed from the start.

3. Which jobs are most at risk? Those that follow strict procedures

So, which jobs are most likely to be replaced by AI?

Research from Harvard University has found a pattern: AI is particularly good at handling explicit knowledge—information that is written in books, manuals, code standards, and SOPs (standard operating procedures).

  • High-risk jobs: Customer service representatives, basic operations, financial accounting, administrative assistants, junior programmers, telemarketing. These jobs involve following set procedures, and as long as the procedures are clear, AI can do them better, faster, and without fatigue or emotions.
  • Safe jobs: Jobs that require implicit knowledge— skills that come from experience, intuition, and understanding of human behavior. For example, how experienced doctors diagnose patients from their expressions, or how experienced lawyers read the courtroom dynamics, or jobs that require complex emotional communication and strategic thinking.

A report from ShanghaiTech University also points out that 26.6% of job positions are in a “high-exposure, low-complementarity” zone, meaning AI can do these tasks well, and the replacement by AI is irreversible.

In simple terms: If your job involves mostly copying and pasting, filling out forms, or writing repetitive texts, you’re at risk. If your job requires judgment, creativity, empathy, or handling unexpected situations, you’re relatively safe, and you might even become more valuable with AI’s help.

4. Do you still need to go to college? “Lifelong learning” is essential

This leads to a deeper question: If AI can replace basic jobs, is what you learn in college still useful?

The answer is: The traditional college education model is becoming obsolete.

  • Time mismatch: It takes four years to train a college graduate, but AI technology evolves every three years. By the time you graduate, many of the skills you learn may be outdated.
  • Skill value: Workers with AI skills earn 62% more than those without them, and in some industries, even 118% more.
  • Learning is becoming the norm: LinkedIn data shows that 53% of U.S. employees plan to learn new AI skills in the next six months. People no longer rely on schools to teach them for life; they learn new skills in short, continuous bursts, like watching videos.

Some high-tech companies are even hiring “teenage geniuses,” and a college degree is no longer the only requirement. Moreover, as the global birth rate declines (expected to fall below 2.1 by the 2040s), the labor force is shrinking, making humans more scarce and valuable than machines.

In simple terms: The value of a college degree is decreasing, but the value of learning ability is increasing. In the future, you may need to update your skills every three to five years. Not learning means facing chronic unemployment.

5. Where are the opportunities in the future? Become the one who uses AI, not the one who’s replaced by it

Finally, let’s look at the solutions.

The news mentions that companies like ServiceNow, Snowflake, and Visa are using AI internally on a large scale, and the result is increased efficiency. For example, Visa’s product design time has been reduced by 80%, and the number of code submissions has increased by 80%.

What does this mean? It means that people who know how to use AI will have a huge advantage.

  • From executor to commander: In the past, you might have spent 10 hours writing code; now, you can spend 1 hour directing AI to do it, and use the other 9 hours on strategic thinking and innovation.
  • New career paths: “AI engineers” are one of the fastest-growing professions on LinkedIn. But this doesn’t just refer to those who write algorithms; it also includes those who understand the business, data, and how to use AI to solve specific problems.
  • Human advantages: As repetitive tasks are taken over by machines, human value will lie in areas that machines can’t handle, such as thinking, emotion, and creativity.

In simple terms: Don’t compete with AI in speed or memory. Instead, learn how to give instructions to AI and use it to enhance your abilities. Just as we learned to use calculators, we now need to learn how to use AI.

In summary:

AI is not a threat; it’s a filter. It removes those who rely on repetitive work and keeps those who are willing to learn, think, and use tools.

For young people, anxiety is natural, but **action is more important than worry. Learn AI tools, understand which aspects of your industry can be optimized by AI, and develop the “human” skills that machines can’t learn.

The tide is coming, but if you learn to swim—or even surf—you won’t be a victim; you’ll be a beneficiary.