AI Giants Call for a Slowdown: Is a Shift in Tech Stocks Around the Corner? A Layman's Explanation of This "Security Controversy"
Hello everyone, I'm your financial journalist. Recently, something quite interesting happened in the AI community: three giants that usually compete fiercely with each other—Anthropic (owned by Dalio Amodi), OpenAI (led by Sam Altman), and xAI (founded by Elon Musk)—unusually agreed and jointly declared, "Let's slow down. AI is developing too fast; we need to put the brakes on!"
This announcement sent the market into a frenzy. OpenAI even announced the postponement of its IPO. Many people are wondering: Does this mean the AI bubble is about to burst? Will tech stocks take a big hit?
Don't worry. Let's put our emotions aside and break down this situation in simple terms. Is this really a pause in technology development, or is it a carefully orchestrated public relations stunt? What does it mean for us ordinary investors and the entire industry?
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1. Words of Slowdown, but Feet on the Gas: How Credible Is This Consensus?
First, we need to clarify a key point: Have they really stopped? Not really.
It's like three racers on the track suddenly saying, "Oh, this car is too fast; it's dangerous, we need to slow down." But if you look closely, you'll see their gas pedals aren't even slightly eased; they're actually accelerating.
Evidence of Discrepancy Between Words and Actions:
- Anthropic's Double Standards: In June, Anthropic released a report warning that AI could get out of control and called on the industry to pause research and development. What happened? Just five days later, they launched an even more powerful new model. That's like a doctor telling you not to eat sugar, then immediately eating a huge piece of cake themselves.
- Heavy Investment: While calling for a slowdown, Anthropic secured a massive $65 billion in funding, becoming the most valued company in the world, and also signed a $45 billion deal for computing power with SpaceX. OpenAI wasn't idle either; its revenue continued to grow in the second quarter, showing strong commercial momentum.
Why Are They Doing This?—the Prisoner Dilemma in the AI Industry
There's a harsh rule in the AI industry: The one who stops first loses. If Anthropic really stopped, OpenAI and xAI would take the opportunity to widen their technological lead and gain market share. So, no company is actually willing to stop on its own.
Conclusion: This is a "low-cost safety statement." According to some analysts, the joint declaration by the three giants is essentially a form of expectation management.
- Lack of Commitment: There's no agreement or verification mechanism; no company has actually stopped.
- Clear Purpose: It's to show regulators and the public that they are responsible and to cool down the overheated market emotions, preventing the bubble from bursting in an ugly way.
In One Sentence: Don't be scared by the word "slowdown." The fundamentals (actual technological progress and profitability) haven't changed, but market confidence has been shaken.
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2. Valuations to Be Discounted: From "Unlimited Faith" to "Rational Return"
Tech stocks, especially AI stocks, have soared over the past two years for two reasons:
1. Performance: Nvidia's chip sales were booming, cloud providers were buying servers in droves, and there was a shortage of optical modules—real money was flowing into the market.
2. Faith: Everyone believed that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) was just around the corner, with model capabilities doubling every few months, creating an unlimited future. So, even with P/E ratios of 100 or 200 times, people thought it was reasonable because the future looked so bright.
The giants' statement hits right at this faith:
- Official Disproof of Unrestricted Growth: When OpenAI admitted serious security issues that prevented an IPO, and industry leaders said growth needed to slow down, it means the myth of "unlimited and error-free AI" has been shaken.
- Lack of a Pricing Benchmark: OpenAI's IPO postponement removes a major pricing reference point. Before, people used OpenAI's value to estimate other AI companies' values. Now that benchmark is gone, valuations in the private equity market will drop, which will affect the stock market, leading to a correction in stocks that were priced based on unproven promises.
Historical Comparison: When Musk called for a pause in 2023, no one listened because he was considered an outsider. This time, it's the “core players” speaking in unison, coupled with a real action like a postponed IPO, making the impact much more significant.
In One Sentence: Performance hasn't declined, but the hype is no longer valid. Stocks with no real performance support and based on unproven promises will see their valuations drop, leading to greater volatility.
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3. Who Gets Hit, and Who Benefits? The Uneven Impact on the Industry Chain
The effects of this controversy are not uniform; some sectors will be hit, while others may benefit:
1. Hard Hit: Large Model Companies
- Reason: Their high valuations are based on the expectation of continuous technological breakthroughs and rapid commercialization. Now that the giants say they need to slow down, markets worry about whether these advancements will slow.
- Impact: Their valuations will be pressured. Although domestic large model companies may not slow down immediately, their stock prices could still be affected by market sentiment.
2. Upstream Impact: AI Computing Power Chain (Potential Risks)
- Reason: The demand for computing power (GPUs, servers, optical modules, etc.) depends on cloud giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta's capital spending.
- Current Situation: These companies still have strong capital expenditure plans (expected to grow by 75%-80%), so their short-term performance is stable.
- Risk: Investors may wonder if the giants are using security concerns as a pretext to reduce spending. If model development really slows, their capital expenditure plans could be adjusted downward, affecting the valuations of related companies like Nvidia and optical module manufacturers.
3. Opportunities in Cybersecurity
- Reason: If AI poses risks, the demand for security solutions increases.
- New Threats: Hackers can now use AI to launch coordinated attacks, altering records. This highlights the need for advanced AI-based security solutions.
- Performance Proof: Companies like CrowdStrike (leading AI security provider) saw a 51% increase in net revenue. Domestic companies like Qianxin and Qimingxing also saw over 100% growth in AI security revenue.
- Impact: Cybersecurity has become a core focus. With high barriers and strong demand, these companies' valuations are likely to rise.
In One Sentence: Companies selling computing power (such as Nvidia) may face reduced demand, while those selling security solutions (like CrowdStrike) are in a golden position.
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4. A Guide for Ordinary Investors
Let's get back to the practical question: What does this mean for the stocks I hold? What should I do?
- Distinguish Between Hype and Performance: Stocks with P/E ratios in the hundreds of times, no profits, and relying on unproven AI promises will see the biggest valuations drop. If they fall, it might not be an opportunity but the end of their value.
- Focus on Real Performance: Companies with actual revenue, profits, and real orders in AI security or computing power will see potential opportunities during a market downturn.
- Watch for Liquidity Changes: The global interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, and market liquidity may decrease. Investors will be more cautious and focus on tangible performance.
- Investment Advice:
- Be cautious of high-valued computing power stocks; if you hold stocks in this sector with extremely high valuations, be prepared for potential valuations to drop.
- Look at the AI security sector; it's an undervalued area with solid growth prospects. Companies like CrowdStrike and domestic players like Qianxin and Qimingxing will benefit from increasing security demand.
- Be Patient and Avoid Overbuying: Short-term volatility is high, so don't rush to buy into unproven AI stocks.
In Summary: The AI giants' call for a slowdown pierces the bubble but doesn't break the cycle. The AI industry will continue to grow, but the market will no longer be driven by the illusion of unlimited growth. Instead, it will value security and real performance.
Remember: Stocks with solid performance will see opportunities in a downturn; those based on unproven promises will face significant losses.