A 36-Hour "Carnival Ride": Why Was the AI Sector Manipulated by a Few Words?
In the past two days, something quite magical happened in the global tech stock market. You might think that AI is the major trend for the next few decades, so how could stock prices experience such wild fluctuations just because of a few remarks from influential figures?
Let's not rush to look at the charts. First, I'll explain what's happened in simple terms, and then I'll break down who's really behind these movements.
Summary of the Key Events: A Market Shock Triggered by Words
In less than 36 hours, AI-related stocks around the world experienced a dramatic surge, followed by a drop, and then another rise.
1. Trigger (September 14): Three big names from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (Altmann, Armodi, and Musk) surprisingly agreed to call for a slowdown in the development of advanced AI. The market thought, "Oh no, are they going to put the brakes on AI? Will we stop investing in it?" As a result, tech stocks in Japan and South Korea tumbled, and A-share markets, particularly those in the optical module and memory chip sectors, also suffered.
2. Reversal (September 15): U.S. President Donald Trump stepped in to calm the situation, stating that claims of AI destroying humanity were nonsense and that AI is actually the strongest economic driver. The market felt relieved, and sentiment improved slightly.
3. Current Situation (Market Close on September 15): A-share markets did not mirror the U.S. decline; instead, there was a divergence. Stocks heavily reliant on overseas giants (like those in the optical module sector) continued to fall, while those pursuing a "domestic substitution" strategy (such as semiconductor equipment and copper-clad plate materials) rose against the trend. However, due to a lack of new capital, trading volumes declined, and many stocks fell again by the end of the day.
In one sentence: The fluctuation was not due to any real issues with AI technology or companies' profitability; it was purely because the market was highly sensitive and overly reactive to any news.
In-Depth Analysis: Why Do a Few Words Have Such Power?
To help you understand the logic behind this, I'll break down the events into five aspects:
1. The Rapid Shift in Market Sentiment: From a Call for Slower Progress to a President's Denial
The most dramatic part of these two days was the rapid change in market sentiment:
- Scene One: The AI industry's top players suddenly agreed to slow down. From September 12 to 14, Anthropic released a 150-page risk report stating that AI's rapid evolution was out of control, and OpenAI and SpaceX's leaders echoed this concern. Market Interpretation: If the big players were slowing down, it meant fewer investments in servers and data centers. This led to a panic sell-off in tech stocks in Japan, South Korea, and China.
- Scene Two: Trump's Statement Counteracted the Panic: On September 15, Trump argued that fears of AI destroying humanity were false and that AI is a powerful economic force. Market Interpretation:** Since the president had spoken, it seemed policy would continue to support AI, so market sentiment stabilized slightly, and A-share markets even rose in the morning.
Key Point: Note that none of the companies actually announced budget cuts or shutdowns of data centers. The rise and fall were 90% emotional and 10% based on fundamental factors. The market was betting on future expectations, not current reality.
2. Why Didn't A-Share Markets Follow the U.S. Decline? The Domestic Substitution Strategy Became a Safe Haven
If you looked at the A-share market on September 15, you'd notice a strange phenomenon: while the U.S. semiconductor index fell by 5.86%, not all A-share stocks declined. Some even rose:
- Who Fell? (Overseas Dependencies): Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which supply optical modules to U.S. giants like NVIDIA and Microsoft, saw their orders shrink, leading to declines.
- Who Rose? (Domestic Substitution Players): Companies like Huazheng New Materials (copper-clad plates), Huahai Qingke (semiconductor equipment), and Cambricon (domestic AI chips) rose. Reason: With increased pressure from the U.S., China needed to rely on domestic alternatives for security. This logic made these stocks more resilient.
3. The Market's Weakness: Why Such Sensitivity?
You might wonder why such a reaction occurred despite previous statements from influential figures. The market is in a particularly sensitive period:
- Performance Gap: A-share companies have already released their semi-annual reports, but the third-quarter reports are yet to come. Without recent financial data, investors are more anxious.
- Lack of New Capital: Trading volume on September 15 was 1.62 trillion yuan, much lower than usual, indicating no new large-scale capital entering the market. In a situation where funds are limited, any news can cause rapid stock movements.
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Fed was about to decide on interest rates, and 10-year U.S. bond yields exceeded 5%, raising the cost of borrowing and pressuring stock valuations. Investors were very cautious about negative news.
4. Is AI Really in Trouble?
Despite the stock price drops, let's look at the fundamentals:
- Strong Performance: Recent reports show that AI-related companies had impressive profit growth in the second quarter, with growth rates of 65% to 202%. The AI industry is still in a boom, and companies are indeed making money.
- Concerns: Analysts worry about whether the growth can sustain from the second quarter. For example, the memory chip industry is cyclical, and prices and volumes are rising, but whether this can continue is uncertain.
- Material Price Increases: Rising costs for copper-clad plates and electronic materials need to be verified by financial reports.
5. What About the Future? Different Views from Institutions
Institutions have different opinions on the market's direction:
- Optimists (Guotou Securities): Negative factors are already priced in, and the fourth quarter could be a turning point. They believe that the Fed's interest rate hikes have been anticipated, and long-term interest rates haven't risen much, indicating the market has absorbed the pressure. If AI companies' profits grow faster than interest rates, stock prices will rise.
- Cautions (CITIC Securities): Despite strong performance, future prospects are uncertain due to factors like U.S. interest rate hikes and potential competition from Anthropic. No new positive news has emerged, so it's better to wait for clearer signals before buying.
- Neutral to Bullish (Sindong Securities): They expect concerns to ease by mid-to-late September, presenting an opportunity for tech stocks.
Advice for Investors:
1. Don't Be Driven by Words: Listen to what the big players say, but don't assume the world will change overnight. Focus on actual orders, financial reports, and capital expenditure data.
2. Distinguish Between Domestic and Overseas Markets: Overseas markets are more affected by U.S. policies, while domestic markets are supported by domestic policies and security needs. If you're risk-averse, domestic substitution stocks may be more stable.
3. Watch Trading Volumes: If volumes decline, it means investors are cautious. Wait for volumes to increase or for clear positive financial news before entering the market.
4. Be Patient: The market is in a sensitive period with limited financial data. It's safer to be cautious and wait for clearer signals.
In conclusion: The AI sector's fluctuations were a typical example of an "emotional market" where fundamentals remain strong, but market sentiment is fragile. For ordinary investors, it's better to focus on companies with solid performance and less affected by overseas trends.