虎嗅

China's Automotive Industry Faces Challenges in Brazil ③

原文:中国汽车产业的巴西考验③

In-Depth Analysis of Factory Location Choices in Brazil: Don’t Just Look at Land Prices—Consider Your “Neighbors” and Ports

As an economist and financial journalist who has long followed the global automotive industry chain, I carefully studied this in-depth report on the location choices made by Chinese automakers in Brazil. The core issue raised in the article is very clear: For Chinese companies looking to set up factories in Brazil, which state and which city should they choose?

In the past, when considering locations, we often focused on factors like “where the land is cheap” or “where there are more tax incentives.” However, this report, through on-site visits and case studies, reveals a more pragmatic and realistic perspective: Choosing a location is not just about finding an empty piece of land; it’s about solving a complex set of logistical and strategic problems involving customers, supply chains, ports, and talent.

To make this information easier to understand, I have broken down the report into five key aspects and explained the underlying business logic in plain language.

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1. The Difference Between Automobile Manufacturers and Parts Suppliers

This is the most fundamental distinction in the report. Many readers mistakenly think that “automakers building factories” is the same as “suppliers doing so,” but they are not.

  • Automobile manufacturers (such as Great Wall, Geely, BYD) are focused on “changing the environment”:

Automobile manufacturers are large customers with significant bargaining power and financial resources. When choosing a location, they prioritize the ability to start production quickly and policy benefits.

  • For example, Great Wall could take over an old Mercedes factory in Iracemápolis or build a new city near a port in Espírito Santo State.
  • Stellantis (formerly Fiat) invested heavily in building a supplier park in Goiânia in the northeast, bringing in 16 suppliers to set up operations together.
  • Key point: Automobile manufacturers can use substantial capital to create the necessary industrial infrastructure. They can tolerate initial shortcomings in supporting facilities because they are the leading players in the industry.
  • Parts suppliers (such as Apt, Top, and Joyson Safety) are focused on “integrating into the existing environment”:

Suppliers have less influence on the local industrial ecosystem. Their main concerns are whether there are customers nearby and whether there are other companies in the same area.

  • If a parts factory is located in the countryside, even if the land is cheap, the high transportation costs to deliver goods to automobile manufacturers hundreds of kilometers away can erode profits.
  • If it’s located inland in São Paulo, the high land costs may be offset by the presence of factories belonging to companies like Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen, allowing for more efficient supply.
  • Key point: Suppliers need to be part of an existing industrial cluster. They ask, “Is there a second or third customer available in addition to the first one?”

Simple analogy:

Automobile manufacturers are like large shopping centers that can be built in suburban areas with their own infrastructure, attracting brands to set up shop.

Parts suppliers are like convenience stores that must be located near where their customers are, as customers won’t travel long just to buy small parts.

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2. São Paulo Inland: Expensive but a Prime Location

The report spends a lot of space analyzing São Paulo State, especially its inland areas, and the conclusion is clear: For most Chinese parts companies, inland São Paulo is the top choice, even a necessity.

Why? Because it has the most mature automotive industry ecosystem in Brazil:

1. High customer density: São Paulo State generates 62.1% of Brazil’s automotive parts revenue. It’s home to Hyundai’s Piracicaba factory, Toyota’s Sorocaba factory, and Great Wall’s Iracemápolis factory.

  • Example: Apt, a tank manufacturer, bought an old factory in Americana, which is close to Hyundai, Great Wall, and ZF. Although it’s 3-4 hours to the port, the low delivery costs to nearby customers make it cost-effective.
  • Example: Top, a chassis parts manufacturer, is located near Guarulhos, just 20 kilometers from General Motors’ factory and 1.5 kilometers from the airport, with easy access to key materials. This proximity is unmatched in other areas.

2. Well-developed supply chain: Inland São Paulo doesn’t require companies to build their own injection molding facilities, as there are many professional injection molding, mold-making, and equipment maintenance companies nearby.

  • Example: Joyson Safety, a seatbelt manufacturer, initially invested in its own injection molding equipment due to limited local options but now outsources some of this work to save on costs.

3. Abundant talent: The region has a large pool of skilled workers, engineers, and technicians, ready to be hired for new factories.

Conclusion: Although the land and labor costs in inland São Paulo are high, the savings in logistics, communication, and equipment maintenance can offset these expenses. For suppliers aiming to serve multiple automobile manufacturers, this is the most cost-effective choice.

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3. Paraná and Curitiba: The Underestimated Alternative

The report highlights Curitiba in Paraná State as a strong contender, on par with São Paulo:

1. The Renault-Geely “anchor effect”:

Geely joined forces with Renault and used its existing facilities in São José dos Pinhais. This provides a well-established production team, management processes, and infrastructure.

  • This means suppliers have access to customers from both Geely/Renault and other companies like Volkswagen, Audi, and Volvo.

2. Port advantages: The Port of Paraná is only about 90 kilometers from the industrial area, reducing logistics costs significantly compared to the longer distances to Santos Port in São Paulo.

3. Energy and policies: Paraná State uses mostly clean energy (hydropower), which appeals to international companies concerned about ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance). The local government also provides comprehensive support.

Comparison with São Paulo:

São Paulo has a larger customer base and a complete supply chain; Paraná has a port and lower costs. Paraná is more cost-effective for companies that need to import equipment or export vehicles. It’s also a better choice if you want to serve multiple manufacturers like Hyundai, Toyota, and Great Wall.

Advice: Don’t wait until all locations in São Paulo are taken before considering Paraná; compare the two options carefully.

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4. Other Regions: Pitfalls and Opportunities

The report also analyzes regions like Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and the northeast. Each has its advantages and challenges:

1. Rio de Janeiro’s inland areas (Resende, Porto Real, Itatiaia):

  • Opportunities: These areas have factories belonging to Nissan, Volkswagen, and Stellantis, and are connected to São Paulo via the Dutra highway.
  • Challenges: Chery is considering acquiring an old Jaguar Land Rover factory, but the renovation costs are high, and the geology may be unfavorable.
  • Advice: Don’t focus solely on that one factory; investigate the entire industrial corridor.

2. Minas Gerais State:

  • Challenge: Lack of a port means higher transportation costs for imported parts.
  • Suggestions: Consider areas like Betim, which are close to General Motors, or southern regions like Bosso Alegre, which are suitable for construction equipment suppliers.

3. Goiás State (Cao factory):

  • Current situation: Companies like Chery, Changan, and GAC produce here through partnerships with Cao.
  • Challenges: No port, and the factories are spread out, making logistics more complex.
  • Advice: Build your first factory here only if you have large, long-term orders; otherwise, the high transportation costs to São Paulo or Paraná may be a downside.

4. Northeastern regions (Goiânia, Camassari):

  • Goiânia (Stellantis/Zero One): This area has a well-established industrial cluster with 38 suppliers. Zero One produces here, but new entrants need to assess whether they can integrate into the existing system.
  • Camassari (BYD): BYD is increasing local production, reducing opportunities for other suppliers. The location is far from major markets, increasing logistics costs.
  • Advice: Consider this option only if you have significant local orders.

5. Espírito Santo State (Aracruz):

  • Great Wall’s new base: The port in Porto Selê is ideal for vehicle exports and imports.
  • Challenge: Long distances to the main industrial area in São Paulo increase parts delivery costs.
  • Advice: This location is suitable for automobile manufacturers but not for small parts suppliers.

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5. Practical Advice for Chinese Companies

Based on the analysis, the report provides practical guidance:

1. For parts suppliers:

  • Top choices: Inland São Paulo (Piracicaba, Limeira, Americana, Campinas areas) and Curitiba in Paraná.
  • Strategy: Don’t limit your search to Chinese brands; look for companies like Hyundai, Toyota, and Volkswagen. The first customer determines your success, but other nearby customers are crucial for long-term viability.
  • Action: Start by inquiring about land, factory, and labor costs in these areas and compare them with other options.

2. For automobile manufacturers:

  • Strategy: Consider building near ports (e.g., Espírito Santo State) or in policy-subsidized areas (e.g., the northeast) to attract suppliers.
  • Consideration: Calculate the costs of setting up the necessary infrastructure and ensuring suppliers are willing to follow.

3. General principle: Don’t just focus on land prices; consider the total cost (land, logistics, labor, equipment, and maintenance).

  • Don’t rely solely on brand presence; evaluate the specific factory, parts, and procurement arrangements.
  • Gradual investment: Start by renting existing facilities and expanding gradually as your business grows. Avoid investing heavily in land from the beginning to reduce risks.

In summary: When building a factory in Brazil, proximity to key industries and customers is more important than low land prices. For most Chinese parts companies, inland São Paulo and Curitiba in Paraná offer the highest potential and the greatest opportunities. Don’t pursue extreme cost savings at the expense of being close to the industrial core.