The AI Giants Go Their Separate Ways: One Rushes to Go Public, the Other Slows Down – The Inside Story
Hello everyone, I’m your financial journalist. Today, we’re talking about a major development in the world of artificial intelligence (AI): Anthropic (the parent company of Claude) and OpenAI (the parent company of ChatGPT), two once close competitors, are now taking completely opposite paths when it comes to going public.
In simple terms, Anthropic is speeding up its efforts to list on NASDAQ by mid-October, with a target valuation of $2 trillion, while OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman has publicly stated that the company will not go public in 2026 due to concerns about “AI safety” and the “unreached maturity of the time.”
It’s like two marathon runners: one suddenly accelerates towards the finish line, while the other stops in mid-run to tie their shoes. What’s really behind this? Is it a lack of funds? Or has the strategy changed? Let’s break it down in plain language.
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Surface-Level Reason: “Safety,” but the Real Motive: The Financial Situation
Many people might wonder if OpenAI is running out of money, given its high spending. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that “lack of funds” is not the main reason for the delay.
1. There’s Still Enough Money for Now
Although OpenAI spends a lot, its backers (Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, etc.) are very wealthy. In March this year, OpenAI raised $122 billion with a valuation of $850 billion. Even though it plans to spend $25 billion on computing power by 2030, it’s not in a situation where it can’t survive without going public in the short term.
2. The Real Problem: Revenue Doesn’t Keep Up with Expenses
There’ve been internal disagreements at OpenAI. CFO Sara Flehr has privately expressed concerns that the company’s revenue growth is slow enough to support Altman’s ambitious server expansion plans.
- Data Comparison: In the first quarter of this year, OpenAI’s revenue was $5.7 billion, falling short of targets. Even more troubling, $3.5 billion of that was spent on costs, resulting in a gross margin of only 39%.
- Comparison with Anthropic: During the same period, Anthropic’s revenue grew by five times, while OpenAI’s only grew by 50%.
3. “Safety” as a Cover Story
Altman’s claim that “it’s not wise to go public now due to AI safety risks” sounds responsible, but on Wall Street, it’s more likely a polite way of admitting that the company’s financials are not as strong as it would like to appear. By using “safety” as a pretext, OpenAI can save face and buy time to adjust its financial models.
Conclusion: OpenAI is delaying its public offering because its revenue growth isn’t keeping up with its spending. It needs time to optimize its cost structure or wait for more favorable market conditions.
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Anthropic’s “Perfect Plan”: Why Does It Dare to Rush?
In contrast, Anthropic has a impressive financial track record that has impressed Wall Street. It’s confident about its future because of its rapid revenue growth:
1. Explosive Revenue Growth
- By the end of 2025: Annual revenue is expected to be around $9 billion.
- In July 2024: Annual revenue exceeded $65 billion.
- Projection: It could reach $120 billion by the end of the year.
- Implication: Such growth is unprecedented in tech history, indicating a rapidly expanding market for its services.
2. Turning Profit
Most importantly, Anthropic has reported positive adjusted operating profits for two consecutive quarters.
- Profitability: Although this figure includes royalties from partners like Amazon and model training costs, it shows that the company is starting to make money despite significant investments.
- Gross Margin: Over 80% means it earns more than $20 in profit for every $100 in revenue, which is incredibly efficient in the capital-intensive AI industry.
3. The Ideal IPO Story
Wall Street loves companies with high growth, high margins, and positive profitability. Anthropic meets all these criteria. It doesn’t need to explain its losses; it just needs to show how profitable it is. This makes it more attractive to investors.
Conclusion: Anthropic is choosing to go public now because its financial story is the most compelling and can secure the highest valuation in the current market environment.
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The Race for Computing Power
The competition between the two companies is essentially a race for computing power (GPUs). The one with more power can train better models and retain users:
1. Anthropic’s Power Acquisition
Anthropic is aggressively securing computing resources:
- Deal with Microsoft Azure: Approximately $30 billion.
- Contract with Nvidia’s Lambda: $35 billion.
- Deal with Nscale (UK): A six-year agreement worth $45 billion.
- Total: These three deals alone amount to $110 billion.
- Implication: This shows Anthropic’s confidence in its future needs, indicating it’s willing to invest heavily in computing power to maintain its competitive edge.
2. OpenAI’s Reactive Approach
OpenAI’s higher spending (estimated at $665 billion by 2030) puts it at a disadvantage. It had to purchase more expensive computing power due to unexpected demand, leading to a drop in its gross margin from 46% to 33%-39%.
- Implication: OpenAI is reacting to market demands, while Anthropic is proactively planning ahead. In the capital market, “controllable costs” are more valuable than “high spending.”
Conclusion: Although both companies are spending heavily on computing power, Anthropic’s approach is more organized and predictable, giving it an advantage over OpenAI.
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Who Will Set the Standards First?
The timing of their public offerings is crucial. Anthropic’s move is not just about raising funds but also about setting the standards for the entire AI industry:
1. Setting a Valuation Benchmark
If Anthropic goes public with a $2 trillion valuation and its stock price rises, it will set a new benchmark for the industry.
- Benefits for OpenAI: OpenAI can use this to raise its own valuation in private markets, making it easier to fund future projects.
- Risks for OpenAI: If Anthropic’s performance is poor or its actual costs are revealed to be higher than expected, it could deflate the industry’s valuation and affect OpenAI’s valuation as well.
2. The Test of Financial Disclosure
Going public requires disclosing real financial data. If Anthropic’s reported figures are inflated, its stock price could plummet.
- OpenAI’s Strategy: OpenAI can wait and observe how Wall Street reacts to Anthropic’s financials before deciding when and how to go public.
Conclusion: Anthropic’s early move is an attempt to establish a leadership position; OpenAI’s pause is a defensive strategy to assess the market before making its next move.
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What Should Ordinary Investors Think?
For us, this split between the two AI giants reveals several key trends:
1. The AI Industry is Diversifying: It’s no longer about just being in the AI space; companies need to prove their profitability.
2. Computing Power is Key: Future success will depend on how efficiently they use computing power to generate revenue.
3. Public Offering is Just the Start: After going public, companies will face stricter scrutiny. Those that can sustain their profitability will redefine the industry’s valuation logic; those that fail may see a market correction.
4. OpenAI Is Not Out of the Race: Despite the delay, OpenAI still has a strong brand and user base. It’s likely waiting for the right moment or refining its financial strategy before trying again.
In summary, Anthropic is focused on securing the best possible valuation, while OpenAI is using the delay to optimize its financials and address safety concerns. This competition is just beginning. We’ll closely monitor Anthropic’s performance and whether OpenAI will resubmit its application in 2026. In the world of AI, being one step behind could mean falling behind an entire era.