Hello! I'm your financial news analyst assistant. Today, we're going to talk about a major development in South Korean politics: the plummeting support rates for President Lee Jae-myeong.
This isn't just about numbers; it reflects deep-seated anxieties in South Korean society, the struggles of the younger generation, and the impact of international geopolitics on domestic public opinion. Let's break down this issue in simple terms, without getting too complex with economic models.
Summary of the Key Points
In short, President Lee Jae-myeong is facing tough times. The latest polls show that his support rate has dropped for nine consecutive weeks, reaching its lowest point since he took office (33.8%), while the opposition rate has soared to 63.3%.
Why the decline? There are three main reasons:
1. Unaffordable housing: The government aimed to curb speculation in the housing market, but the policies ended up harming young people who really need homes. Landlords passed on the tax burden to tenants, causing housing prices in Seoul to rise for 85 consecutive weeks, leaving the young completely frustrated.
2. The controversy over sending troops: The United States pressured South Korea to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, which most South Koreans (including supporters of the ruling party) oppose, seeing it as a unnecessary burden on the country.
3. Scandals in appointments: There have been scandals involving new cabinet members, such as those who refused to resign from their parliamentary roles or were accused of illegal lobbying, which has raised doubts about the government's integrity.
As a result, the ruling Democratic Party's support rate has plummeted, while the opposition National Power Party's support rate has risen significantly. Lee Jae-myeong has had to hold a press conference to address these issues.
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A Deeper Look: Five Dimensions of Lee Jae-myeong's Trust Crisis
1. The Cold Reality Behind the Numbers: Why the Nine-WEEK Drop in Support Rates?
Let's look at the data. Polling agencies "Real Meter" and "Korean Gallup" both conclude that Lee Jae-myeong's reputation as a leader is deteriorating rapidly:
- New Low Support Rate: With a support rate of 33.8%, that means only a little over 3 out of 10 South Koreans think he is doing a good job. More concerning is the opposition rate of 63.3%. In politics, when the opposition rate far exceeds the support rate, it usually indicates strong dissatisfaction among the public, not just indifference.
- Continuous Decline: This isn't a one-week fluctuation; it's a nine-week trend, indicating that the problems have been accumulating over time.
- Partisan Impact: The president's declining support rate has dragged down the Democratic Party, which has lost 5.7 percentage points, while the National Power Party has gained 4.5 percentage points. This shows that voters are using their power to make a change in the next election.
In simple terms: It's like a company where the boss (the president) has had poor performance for nine months. Employees (the public) are not only dissatisfied but also starting to look for new options (the opposition party).
2. The Young Generation's Backlash: Why Did Housing Policies Become a Target?
This is the biggest factor contributing to Lee Jae-myeong's declining support rate. Polls show that the 18-29 age group has lost the most support, with the support rate for men in this age group dropping below 20% (to 19.6%).
Why Do Young People Dislike the Government?
- Housing Policies Hurting the Neediest: The government's efforts to curb housing speculation led to stricter mortgage restrictions. As a result, young people who wanted to buy homes but had only a small down payment were excluded from the market. They couldn't get loans, and housing prices continued to rise.
- Tax Burden: The government intended to tax those with multiple properties, but landlords passed on the extra taxes to tenants or took back their properties, increasing rent prices.
- Unstabilizing Housing Prices: Apartment prices in Seoul have been rising for 85 consecutive weeks. Young people see their wages stagnating while housing costs soar, leading them to believe the government is doing nothing or even making things worse.
Expert Opinion: Professor Zhan Debin from Shanghai University of International Business and Economics pointed out a historical pattern: whenever the Democratic Party (the progressive party) comes to power, housing prices rise. This has happened during the administrations of Roh Moo-hyun, Moon Jae-in, and Lee Jae-myeong, with the biggest increases during their terms. This has created a conditioned distrust of progressive governments among young people.
In simple terms: The government says it wants to fight against housing speculators, but instead, it ends up harming the young people who need homes and making things worse for them.
3. The Geopolitical Pressure: Why Did the Decision to Send Troops Trigger Anger?
Another major issue is the military deployment:
- Pressure from the US: The Trump administration has criticized South Korea for not doing enough to help with the Middle East situation and pressured it to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Public Opposition: South Korean public opinion is strongly against sending troops, with 45% opposing the decision and only 36% in favor. Even 55% of Democratic Party supporters oppose it.
- Protests: Protests have been ongoing in Seoul since early September, with concerns that South Korea could lose its neutrality and become a target in any conflict.
In simple terms: The government is caught in a difficult position between its ally, the US, and the angry public. Sending troops would lead to a collapse in domestic support, while not sending them could be seen as disloyalty by the US. The government is still delaying a decision, planning talks with the US this week, but public opinion has already reached a boiling point.
4. The Flip in Personnel Appointments: Another Source of Trust Crisis
Besides policies and diplomacy, issues with personnel are also eroding Lee Jae-myeong's credibility:
- Controversy over the Minister of Gender Equality: The nominee, Yong Hui-rin, withdrew her nomination after refusing to resign from her parliamentary seat and due to allegations of improper arrangements for her spouse's appointment, which was seen as nepotism and a lack of transparency.
- Scandalous Legal Minister Nomination: The nominee, Kim Seung-won, was accused of illegal lobbying. The Legal Minister is a key position for judicial fairness, and such a scandal raises concerns about the government's judicial system.
Impact: These controversies show that Lee Jae-myeong is not being cautious in selecting his team, potentially sacrificing principles for political gain.
In simple terms: The boss tries to promote new employees, but one gets criticized for not resigning, and another is accused of improper behavior. Employees (the public) think, "This boss can't be trusted; who can we rely on in the future?"
5. Regional and Generational Divisions: Even Traditional Supporter Groups Are Shifting
Lee Jae-myeong used to have a strong base in progressive regions and among the younger population. However, the latest polls show that even his most loyal supporters are wavering:
- Decline in Traditional Supporter Areas: Support rates in progressive regions like Gwangju and Jeollanam-do have dropped to 55.9%, a 5.5% decrease from the previous week.
- Middle-Aged Opposition to Military Deployment: The 40-50 age group, the backbone of South Korean society, is strongly opposed to the troop deployment, with opposition rates ranging from 54% to 59%. This shows that Lee Jae-myeong's hesitation on foreign policy is also costing him key voters.
In simple terms: His traditional support base is starting to shake, indicating that the problem is widespread.
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Conclusion: What Does Lee Jae-myeong Need to Do Next?
Lee Jae-myeong will hold a press conference on the 18th, which will be a crucial test for his crisis management. He needs to address three main issues:
1. How to appease the young: He must propose concrete and effective housing policies, rather than just tightening loans or raising taxes. He may need to consider increasing housing supply and adjusting the tax system to give young people hope.
2. How to Respond to the Troop Deployment Controversy: He needs to clearly explain to the public why sending or not sending troops is in South Korea's best interests and how it will protect national security. He can't just say he will follow the US or the public; he needs to find a balanced approach.
3. How to Rebuild Trust: He must be more transparent and cautious in his appointments to avoid further scandals.
Final Note: South Korean politics is always volatile. The drop in support rates is both a crisis and an opportunity. If Lee Jae-myeong can quickly adjust his policies and address public concerns, his support rate might stabilize. However, if he continues to delay and avoid issues, the ruling party's foundation will weaken, and the upcoming elections will be uncertain.
For us all, following South Korean politics is important not just because it's a major economy in Asia but also because it reflects broader global issues such as the struggles of the young, geopolitical conflicts, and crises of government trust. These issues are closely related to our own lives.