Don’t Blame “Fate”: How Can Ordinary People Avoid Life’s “Traps”?
Hello everyone, I’m your financial journalist and friend, an economist.
Today’s topic might be more relevant to your wallet and life than the fluctuations in the stock market. This article from the WeChat public account “Qin Yin” discusses everyday matters like choosing a college major, finding a job, and getting married, but it actually reveals the underlying logic of how ordinary people manage “life risks.”
In economics, we often say that “risk and reward are proportional.” However, many people live their entire lives taking on huge risks without even understanding what risk really looks like. This article attributes this lack of clarity to three factors: incompetence, arrogance, and emotions.
Below, I’ll break down this article into five parts and explain in simple terms why we always feel like we’re being led by fate, and how we can take control of our own lives.
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I. Core Summary: Why Do We Always Feel Lost in Life?
The article’s main point is quite sharp: The randomness in major decisions by ordinary people is not due to laziness, but rather a lack of ability and cognitive biases.
The author argues that we often blame our life’s mistakes on “bad luck” or “fate,” but the truth is that we make poor decisions because we lack information, are arrogant (overestimating our abilities), or act on impulse (to relieve anxiety).
Even worse, once we make a wrong choice, three major barriers—sunk costs, path dependence, and cognitive inertia—make it impossible for us to change our course. For ordinary people, making the right choice is ten thousand times more important than correcting mistakes.
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II. In-Depth Analysis: Why Do We Rush into Important Decisions?
1. **Incompetence**: Lack of Information Is the Knife That Harves Ordinary People
Many people think decisions are based on intuition, but they’re actually based on information.
- Current Situation: We’re protected from a young age; no one teaches us how to buy a house, choose a career, or manage our finances. Suddenly asked to make a decision, we’re at a loss.
- Consequences: What do we do? We listen to relatives, look online, or make a hasty choice. At this point, those with information (real estate agents, salespeople, or even unscrupulous merchants) can easily take advantage of us.
- Simple Explanation: It’s like a novice driver on the road without traffic rules; they just follow the car in front. If that car crashes, so does ours. You think you’re driving, but in reality, you’re being led by the information.
2. **Arrogance**: Confusing “Wants” with “Capacities”
This is a hidden psychological trap: inferiority and arrogance coexist.
- Misconception: Young people think, “I’m still young; I can afford to make mistakes,” or “I’m ambitious, so I’ll definitely succeed.”
- Reality: Youth is just a time advantage, not an ability advantage. Confusing desires with capabilities leads to hasty decisions.
- Simple Explanation: It’s like a person who just learned to swim thinking they can cross the Yangtze River. They have the ambition, but not the strength or skills. When they end up drowning, it’s not the river’s fault; it’s their overestimation of themselves.
3. **Emotions**: You Don’t Want to Wait; You Want to “End It Quickly”
This might seem counterintuitive, but many decisions are made out of fear of uncertainty.
- Psychological Mechanism: Anxiety weighs heavily on us. When friends buy houses or get married, and you don’t, it becomes unbearable.
- Result: To relieve that anxiety, we hastily sign contracts or get married. The motivation isn’t whether the job or person is right for us, but the need to stop waiting.
- Simple Explanation: It’s like the last 5 minutes of an exam with three unanswered questions. You panic and guess. You might get it right, but you might not. But the anxiety is relieved. Important life decisions can’t be made on a guess.
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III. Cost Analysis: Why Are Mistakes More Harmful Than No Decisions?
Many people say, “If it goes wrong, just fix it; life’s full of detours.” Wrong. The cost of major mistakes is irreversible. The article identifies three factors that prevent us from correcting them:
1. **Sunk Costs**: Time, money, and energy invested that cannot be recovered.
- Concept: These are resources already spent and cannot be regained.
- Reality: Rationally, sunk costs shouldn’t affect decisions. But emotionally, it’s hard to leave a company after 7 years of investment.
- Simple Explanation: You spend $100 on a movie ticket and realize it’s bad after 10 minutes. Rationally, you should leave, but you feel you’ve wasted your money, so you stay to the end. Similarly, time invested in a bad decision is a huge loss.
2. **Path Dependence**: Your skills and network are tied to a particular path.
- Concept: Over time, your skills and social circle become specialized.
- Reality: If you’re a programmer, switching to sales requires relearning skills and changing your way of thinking.
- Simple Explanation: It’s like trying to walk on muddy ground after being used to a paved path. Your skills and habits are adapted to that path; changing them is difficult.
3. **Cognitive Inertia**: Your brain forms fixed patterns.
- Concept: Long-term environments shape our thinking.
- Reality: Technologists seek certainty, while salespeople need flexibility. Changing roles is hard because of different perspectives.
- Simple Explanation: Your brain is like clay; once shaped, it’s hard to change. Most people choose to stick with their mistakes.
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IV. Practical Tips: How Can Ordinary People Avoid “One-Way Doors”?
Since correcting mistakes is so costly, here are four practical tips to improve the chances of making the right choices:
1. **Qualitative Analysis**: Is It a “One-Way Door” or a “Two-Way Door”?
- Method: Use Amazon’s Jeff Bezos’ theory.
- Two-Way Door: You can return if you make a mistake (e.g., changing jobs, cities, or hobbies). -> Don’t hesitate; make a quick decision and correct it if needed.
- One-Way Door: You can’t return (e.g., getting married, buying a house, starting a business, having children). -> Take extra time to consider, ask more people, and gather more information.
- Simple Explanation: You can return a bad purchase (two-way door), but not a major life decision. Many people make hasty choices and get stuck.
2. **Facing Fear**: Write Down Your Worries and Question Them
- Method: Write down your fears (e.g., losing your job and having no money) and ask yourself if it’ll really happen and if you can handle it.
- Principle: Fear often stems from exaggerated worst-case scenarios.
- Simple Explanation: You fear losing your job, but you might have savings or support. Writing it down helps you see the reality more clearly.
3. **Long-Term Perspective**: Use the “10-10-10” Rule
- Method: Ask yourself three questions:
- How will you feel about the decision in 10 minutes?
- How will you feel about it in 10 months?
- How will you feel about it in 10 years?
- Principle: Thinking about the long term reduces immediate anxiety and highlights the bigger picture.
- Simple Explanation: You might hesitate over a expensive bag, but in 10 minutes, it’ll be insignificant. In 10 years, the money could be invested in something better. Thinking long-term helps you make better choices.
4. **Set a Deadline**: The Longer You Wait, the Worse Your Decision
- Method: Waiting delays and reduces clarity. Set a deadline to force yourself to make a decision.
- Principle: Overthinking can be exhausting. Set a deadline to avoid procrastination.
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V. Conclusion: The “Leeway” Given by Fate
The article ends with a comforting message: “The greatest mercy of fate is that it doesn’t lock you down forever for one wrong decision.”
As an economist, I’d like to add:
Life isn’t a multiple-choice question; it’s a dynamic optimization problem.
- Short-term: We make random choices due to uncertainty.
- Long-term: Those who recognize “one-way doors,” control their emotions, and keep learning will gradually move in the right direction.
Tips for Ordinary People:
1. Don’t fear making mistakes; fear making random, impulsive choices.
2. Before major decisions, ask yourself: Is this a one-way door?
3. Don’t let anxiety drive you; let logic guide you.
4. Remember: Your life’s direction is shaped by each careful decision you make.
I hope this analysis helps you make more informed choices at the next critical crossroads in your life.