Hello! I'm your economic analyst and financial journalist. The core of the news we're going to discuss today can be summed up in one sentence: "Americans can't afford to fuel their cars, and Trump's election prospects are in jeopardy."
Although this article contains a lot of data, the logic is quite clear. It explains that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, along with Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, have led to a global shortage of oil, causing gasoline prices in the U.S. to reach record highs. As a result, Americans are feeling the financial strain, which is causing dissatisfaction with the government. With midterms approaching on November, this is a huge setback for the ruling Republican Party.
I'll break down this lengthy article into five key points to explain the situation in simpler terms:
1. Exorbitant Fuel Costs: Gasoline and Diesel Prices at Record Levels
First, let's take a look at just how extreme the current oil prices are:
- Gasoline at an All-Time High: On September 7, 2026 (Labor Day), the average gasoline price across the U.S. reached $4.15 per gallon, a 30% increase from a year ago and breaking the previous record set during Labor Day in 2012. People used to think $3.83 was the ceiling, but now that has been surpassed.
- Diesel Prices Even More Dramatic: Diesel prices are even more alarming, having crossed the $6 per gallon mark for the first time on September 10. Previously, the highest diesel price was just over $5 per gallon; this time it's risen by more than 60%.
- Who's Most Affected? Drivers in California, Hawaii, and Washington state are bearing the brunt, as these areas have the highest fuel prices. Although Western states like Utah and Colorado usually have lower prices, they have seen the largest increases this time.
In Simple Terms: It's like going to the supermarket and finding that a box of milk, which used to cost $10, now costs $15—and they're telling you it might get even more expensive in the future. For Americans, cars are essential for transportation, and fuel is like the "blood" that keeps them running. With such high prices, people are reluctant to travel long distances, and airfare has also increased by 20%. This is not just about the cost of fuel; it's about the overall rise in transportation expenses.
2. Why Such High Prices? It's Not About Lack of Production in the U.S.; It's a Global Supply Crisis
Many might wonder: Isn't the U.S. the world's largest oil producer? So why is there a shortage?
The reasons, as outlined in the article, are twofold: limited access to oil and problems with refining:
- The Middle East Conflict: The war between the U.S. and Iran has entered a new phase, with the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil route, being blocked or disrupted. Houthi rebels have also attacked Saudi oil pipelines. This is like the "highways" for oil transportation being blocked, preventing oil from flowing out.
- Attacks on Russian Refineries: Ukrainian drones have heavily bombed Russian refineries, paralyzing 40% of Russia's refining capacity. Russia used to be a major exporter of diesel, but now it's struggling to meet its own needs and even has to import diesel. This has significantly reduced the global supply of diesel.
- Low U.S. Oil Reserves: Despite U.S. refineries operating at full capacity (with an 98% utilization rate), oil reserves are below normal levels. Gasoline reserves are at 205.7 million barrels, far below the five-year average.
- Seasonal Demand: September is usually a off-season for oil consumption, but this year, due to the war, demand has increased. Additionally, the need for fuel for agricultural harvesting in autumn and heating in winter has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.
In Simple Terms: It's like a family (the global market) that relies on several major suppliers (the Middle East, Russia) for its needs. Now those suppliers are in trouble (due to the war and attacks), and the family's reserves are running out. Even though the family has a chef (U.S. refineries) working hard to produce more fuel, there's not enough raw material, and the resulting products (refined oil) are scarce and expensive. Diesel, which is essential for industries like trucks, ships, and airplanes, is in particularly short supply, causing disruptions throughout the logistics chain.
3. Experts Predict Further Price Increases in the Next Two Months
What's most concerning is that this might not be the end of the problem:
- Jeff Currie's Prediction: The "godfather of commodities" Jeff Currie predicts that by the midterms on November 3, gasoline prices in the U.S. could reach $5 per gallon, and diesel prices could soar to $7-9 per gallon.
- Reasons for the Prediction: Refineries can adjust their production (e.g., by producing less gasoline and more diesel), but there are limits to this flexibility. The market is already at its limits. Moreover, the price of Brent crude oil (the global benchmark) has exceeded $100 and even briefly reached $110.
- Diesel's Annual Record on the Horizon: If diesel prices remain above $5.20 per gallon for the next 16 weeks, the annual average for 2026 will exceed the record set in 2022. This seems almost inevitable.
In Simple Terms: It's like a doctor telling you that your condition will not improve in the next two weeks. Currie believes this is not just a temporary fluctuation; it's a sign that traditional goods and energy (hard currencies) are becoming more valuable while currencies are depreciating. For ordinary families, this means that living costs will continue to rise before the elections.
4. The Political Impact of High Oil Prices
This is the most critical part of the article:
- Public Perception Outpaces Reality: Surveys show that three-quarters of Americans feel the increase in oil prices, and many think the prices have risen more than they actually have. This perception significantly affects voting decisions.
- Blame for the Economy Falls on Trump: 43% of Americans believe Trump is more responsible for the economic situation than Joe Biden, especially those who are particularly upset about the high prices.
- Divisions Within the Republican Party: Even among Trump's staunch supporters, 49% say oil prices will affect their voting decisions. This indicates that even his core base is wavering.
- The Democratic Party's Advantage: Democratic strategists believe that voters are vulnerable to economic hardships and will be more likely to support candidates who blame the war for the high prices. Republican candidates have a difficult time反驳 this, as the facts are clear: prices are indeed rising.
- Critical Swing States: In 13 closely contested states, nine are controlled by the Republicans, and the oil price increases in these areas are higher than the national average. This means the Republicans face a high risk of losing these seats.
In Simple Terms: It's like a parent (Trump) leading children (Americans) into a situation where their food supplies are depleted. A neighbor (the Democratic Party) then says, "It's all because your dad insisted on going to war." Although the children may still love their dad, they're more likely to believe the neighbor when they're hungry. Worse still, Trump is promising to distribute $5,000 to each person if the Republicans win, but this is like using future money to pay for current debts. If he loses, he could also face impeachment. This risky strategy is only adding to the tension.
5. The Possible Outcome on November 3
Let's look at the possible outcomes:
- Increasing Polling Gap: A Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that Democratic candidates have a 44% support rate, compared to 37% for Republicans, a 7-point gap—the largest since January 2025.
- Time Pressure: There are less than two months until the election on November 3. If oil prices continue to rise, this gap could widen.
- Trump's Dilemma: He needs to maintain a "tough" image while continuing to attack Iran, but high oil prices are eroding his support. He claims that the election won't affect his ability to fight the war, but voters make their decisions based on their wallets.
- Possible Scenarios:
- Scenario A (Republican Loss): If oil prices remain high, public anger could lead to Democrats gaining control of the House or even the Senate. Trump could face impeachment, and his policies would be hindered.
- Scenario B (Oil Prices Fall): If the war eases or the International Energy Agency intervenes successfully, oil prices could drop, allowing Trump to stabilize his position. However, the current situation doesn't bode well for a resolution.
- Scenario C (Stalemate): If oil prices remain high and the two parties argue fiercely, the election results could be close, but the Republicans still face a high risk of losing key swing states.
In Simple Terms: It's like a marathon where Trump is at a critical point, struggling to breathe. If oil prices continue to rise in the next two months, he could face a major setback on November 3. Losing control of Congress would make the second half of his presidency very difficult, and he could even face impeachment.
In Summary:
The war has cost Americans approximately $107.4 billion, and this money will ultimately be used as votes for the opposition party. Trump is betting his political life on the country's energy security.