虎嗅

35 billion gone down the drain: Even the Middle East's wealthy investors have suffered losses

原文:350亿打水漂,中东土豪也栽了

Hello! I'm your financial analysis assistant. This news story about Saudi Arabia's "rich" LIV Golf filing for bankruptcy tells a very typical and harsh business tale: When sheer financial power meets basic business sense, money can buy top-tier talent, but it can't win over viewers, let alone create a sustainable business model.

Below, I'll break down the core logic of this news in simple language, showing you how those 35 billion yuan were essentially wasted and what lessons we can learn from it.

Summary of Key Points

The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) spent about four years and approximately 5 billion US dollars (35 billion yuan) attempting to create LIV Golf, a new golf league that would compete with the traditional PGA Tour. They tried to attract top players with high salaries, reformed the competition format, and added an entertainment element, which indeed stirred up the industry and forced their rivals to make changes.

However, LIV Golf never developed a self-sustaining business model. It was heavily dependent on Saudi funding, and once the financial support stopped, it immediately fell into debt. In the end, LIV Golf filed for bankruptcy protection, planning to significantly reduce its scale and cut costs in order to shift from a model that relied on spending money to gain influence to one that could generate its own profits.

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Detailed Analysis

1. Money Can Buy Stars, but Not Viewer Loyalty: The Fatal Weakness of the Business Model

Many people think that sports leagues make money from ticket sales and advertising, but LIV Golf made a critical mistake: They assumed that bringing in the most expensive players would automatically attract viewers.

  • The Reality: Numbers don't lie. In 2025, on the same day, the traditional PGA Tour had an average of 3.1 million viewers on television, while LIV Golf had only 175,000. That's a 18-fold difference!
  • Why Didn't Viewers Buy In? Golf is about more than just who plays well; it's also about the sense of history and suspense. The PGA Tour has decades of Grand Slam history, complex scoring systems, and intense elimination rounds, which create an emotional connection and excitement for viewers.
  • LIV's Problem: LIV Golf turned the games into parties with 54 holes, no eliminations, and huge signing bonuses. Although the players were there, the games lost their unpredictability and competitive intensity. Viewers didn't see the value in winning; without that suspense, there was no reason to watch, and without viewers, TV networks and sponsors were unwilling to pay high prices for the rights.

Simple Example: It's like a restaurant that hires a Michelin-starred chef (a top player) but serves pre-made meals (lacking competitive excitement) in a noisy environment (excessive entertainment). If customers don't enjoy the food, they won't return. No matter how expensive the chef is, it can't save the restaurant.

2. "Sovereign Capital as a Narrative Asset, Not a Profit-Making Tool"

LIV Golf was never a normal business company; it was part of Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030."

  • The Real Purpose: Saudi Arabia wanted to move away from its image of being solely a oil exporter and use sports and entertainment to show the world its modernization. LIV Golf was a political and cultural project, not a profit-making one.
  • Financial Truth: Its revenue structure was flawed. In 2025, its total income was about 208 million US dollars, of which only 5% came from media rights sales (the core profit source for sports leagues). Most of its income came from sponsorship and hosting fees, which were one-time or low-revenue sources.
  • Huge Losses: Over four years, it accumulated a net operating loss of about 5 billion US dollars. This means it was constantly burning money. Its business model was essentially: Using Saudi oil money to buy global attention. Once Saudi Arabia decided it had enough attention or needed the money for other projects (such as AI, renewable energy, the World Cup), this "narrative asset" was discarded.

Simple Example: It's like someone trying to build a "successful person" image on social media by posting photos of expensive cars, but the cars are rented and the money comes from their family. Once the family stops funding, the image collapses because there's no real asset behind it.

3. The Bubble of Team Valuation Burst: From "F1 Dreams" to "Self-Sufficiency"

LIV Golf tried to mimic the Formula 1 (F1) model, treating its teams as high-value assets with the hope of selling shares for profit.

  • Why Are F1 Teams Valuable? F1 teams are scarce, with stable global rights revenue and a strong fan culture.
  • Why Are LIV Teams Not? LIV's teams were created by the league; the brands and players were managed by the league, and the income came from the league. Investors bought into the belief that Saudi Arabia would continue to support them.
  • The Outcome: On the eve of bankruptcy, LIV Golf had to cancel the equity of the players and sponsors in the teams and take back all 13 teams. This shows that the so-called "team assetization" was a complete failure. No external investors were willing to invest in teams that relied on parental funding.

Simple Example: It's like a chain of tea shops claiming each store can go public independently, but in reality, all the ingredients, brand, and customer traffic depend on the headquarters. Once the headquarters runs out of money, the stores can't even pay rent, and their supposed value becomes worthless.

4. The Logic Behind the Financial Cutback: Opportunity Cost and Strategic Shift

Does Saudi Arabia run out of money? Not really. The PIF manages over 900 billion US dollars in assets. So why let LIV Golf go bankrupt?

  • Opportunity Cost: Money is limited, and Saudi Arabia has many more urgent and profitable investment opportunities in areas like AI, renewable energy, aviation, the 2034 World Cup, and infrastructure.
  • Shift in Investment Philosophy: The PIF's current strategy focuses on "sustainable value creation" and financial returns. Projects like LIV Golf, which only burn money and don't generate profits, no longer fit their investment criteria.
  • Stop Loss: Continuing to fund LIV Golf would mean ongoing losses with no end in sight. It's better to cut off the funding and let market mechanisms (such as bankruptcy reorganization) determine the new value.

Simple Example: It's like a family that once kept an expensive pet dog (LIV Golf) for prestige, spending a lot on food. Now they need to save money for a house (other projects) and realize the dog doesn't generate profits and consumes a lot of money. So they decide to stop funding it or sell it.

5. The Future of LIV Golf After Bankruptcy: From "Powerhouse" to "Smaller Business"

LIV Golf's bankruptcy doesn't mean it's gone; it's undergoing a restructuring to survive.

  • New Plan: Led by BC Partners, they will invest about 300 million US dollars.
  • Key Changes:
  • Reduced Scale: Only 10 tournaments in 2027 (compared to many before).
  • Lower Bonuses: No more unlimited high salaries.
  • Self-Sufficiency: The league must rely on its own income (sponsors, tickets, rights) to cover costs.
  • Player Equity: Players will get more control, but also take on more risks.
  • Survival Chance: It might find a foothold in markets not covered by the PGA Tour, such as Australia and South Africa, where LIV Golf's viewership is growing.

Simple Example: It's like a luxury five-star hotel that wanted to expand globally but couldn't afford it. So it rebranded itself as a boutique guesthouse. Although smaller and less luxurious, it can control costs and survive by serving local customers well.

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Lessons for Everyone

1. Don't Overestimate Financial Power: Money can solve many problems, but not the value of the product or customer needs. LIV Golf had the world's most expensive players, but without viewer interest, the value of the content itself is what matters.

2. Be Cautious of Fake Business Models: Projects that rely on external funding and have unhealthy revenue structures (like excessive reliance on one-time sponsorships) can collapse at any time. A real business must be self-sustaining.

3. Industry Change Takes Time: LIV Golf did drive changes in the PGA Tour (such as higher bonuses and player equity), but these changes aren't enough to overthrow traditional strengths.

4. Even Sovereign Funds Have a Rational Moment: Even state-funded organizations need to consider investment efficiency and opportunity cost. When a "face-saving" project no longer meets practical needs, stopping losses is a necessary choice.

In Summary: LIV Golf learned a valuable lesson with its 35 billion yuan: In the world of sports business, the hearts of viewers and sustainable cash flow are more valuable than top-tier players.