The Demystification of Humanoid Robots: From Spectacular Performances on Spring Festival Gala Shows to the Crucial Test of Real Profitability
Hello everyone, I'm your financial analyst. Recently, a significant event occurred in the A-share market, triggering a major upheaval.
On August 19th, Yushu Technology, often referred to as the "first humanoid robot company," went public on the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market). Initially, there were high hopes for its soaring success. However, on the first day of trading, its stock price soared, only to plummet like a roller coaster within a short month, with its market value shrinking by nearly 60%.
At the same time, the industry was also facing internal turmoil. The founder of Meikamand, which had recently gone public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, publicly accused other companies of engaging in fraudulent transactions. Several leading robotics firms were reported to have been accused by their peers, and there were rumors that regulatory authorities had provided "guidance" for robot IPOs, raising the bar for these listings.
This series of events may seem chaotic, but they all point to one core issue: the humanoid robot industry is undergoing a harsh reshuffle, shifting from a focus on hype to a emphasis on actual performance and profitability. In the past, people evaluated robots based on their ability to dance or perform acrobatic moves; now, the focus is on whether they can work in factories, generate real revenue, and sustain long-term operations.
Let me break down this situation into five key aspects to help you fully understand the changes in the industry.
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1. Yushu Technology's Rollercoaster Stock Price
Many people consider Yushu Technology to be impressive, one of the few robotics companies in the world that generate profits and possess strong technical capabilities. So why did its stock price fall?
1. Excessively High Valuation
When Yushu went public, its price-earnings ratio (P/E) was as high as 219 times. For comparison, the average P/E in the general equipment manufacturing sector was only 38 times, and its Hong Kong-based competitor, Ebot, had a P/E of 19 times. On the first day of trading, the P/E even exceeded 800 times. This means that investors were buying into the company's potential to become the "Apple of the robotics industry" over the next 10 to 20 years. Once this optimism cooled down, the stock price inevitably corrected. It's like a newly opened bubble tea shop whose stock price is inflated based on the owner's claim to become the global leader; once the bubble bursts, the price naturally drops.
2. Revenue Growth Without Profit Improvement
Looking at the financial reports, Yushu's revenue increased by 48% in the first half of 2026, but its net profit after deducting non-recurring items decreased by 19%. This is because the company was investing heavily in research and marketing. Research and development expenses increased by more than 80 million yuan, indicating that it was still in the phase of burning money to build its future prospects rather than generating substantial profits.
3. Main Revenue Sources
A significant portion of Yushu's revenue (73.6%) comes from research and education, and only about 9% from industrial applications such as manufacturing, inspection, and logistics. This is similar to a car company that sells 70% of its vehicles to driving schools and only 10% to taxi companies. Although the products are sold, the company has not yet entered the core market of being a productive tool.
4. Objective Evaluation
Yushu is an excellent technology company with a gross margin of over 60% and self-developed core components. It is also making strategic investments, such as building factories and developing advanced algorithms. However, the capital market is realistic. CITIC Securities estimates its fair market value to be between 50.6 billion and 55.9 billion yuan, while its current market value is 190 billion yuan. This suggests that, despite its strengths, its stock price is still inflated and needs time to adjust to reflect its true value.
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2. Industry Infighting: Who Is Faking It?
The latest debates in the industry are not about technical approaches but about allegations of fraud.
1. Meikamand Founder Shao Tianlan's Criticisms
Shao Tianlan has publicly accused several companies of creating artificial prosperity through fraudulent transactions. For example, he pointed out that some companies sell robots to "data collection centers" (often affiliated with them) to generate revenue. These centers then use the money to buy back robots, inflating the company's financials. This is unsustainable and relies on circular transactions to maintain revenue.
2. The Relevance of These Allegations
The issue is relevant because the real demand for humanoid robots has not yet exploded. Many orders are for government projects or research purposes. Packaging these non-market-oriented orders as commercial transactions is misleading for investors. Shao Tianlan's criticism highlights a fundamental question: what constitutes real revenue when the technology is not yet mature?
3. Peer Reports and Regulatory Guidance
In addition to Shao Tianlan's accusations, other companies have been reported to have faced similar issues. There are also rumors that regulatory authorities have provided informal guidance, requiring companies seeking IPOs to demonstrate sustained revenue, a reduction in losses, and significant technological innovation.
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3. An Industry on the Surface: Prosperous but Fragile
Although humanoid robots seem popular, the data is often misleading. For instance, global shipments in the first half of 2026 were 19,100 units, a 272% increase year-over-year, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for 97%. However, most of these robots are used for research, demonstrations, or data collection. Few are actually used in factories or homes. This is similar to how smartphones were initially seen as luxury items before they became widely used for practical purposes.
4. Cost and Practicality Issues
Humanoid robots face two major challenges: high costs and limited functionality. They are more expensive than workers and often perform simple tasks poorly. Their return on investment (ROI) is negative in many cases, making them less cost-effective than hiring employees. Therefore, few companies are willing to invest heavily in them unless they are for research or demonstration purposes.
5. Changing Evaluation Criteria
The focus has shifted from technical specifications to practical applications. Investors now look at whether robots generate recurring sales, have positive cash flows, and can achieve positive ROI. They also consider whether the technology is truly independent and self-developed.
If the regulatory guidance takes effect, companies that rely on government projects, one-time orders, or fraudulent transactions will face significant challenges in obtaining IPO approvals.
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4. The Start of a Survival Race
The humanoid robot industry will not disappear, but it will undergo a process of weeding out the weak. In the next 3 to 5 years, only two types of companies will survive and enjoy valuation premiums:
1. Companies with Real Business Potential
- Criteria: Market-oriented customers, stable recurring orders, non-related-party transactions, and ongoing profit improvement.
- Logic: The capital market will value companies that can turn robots into productive tools.
2. Companies with Strong Technological Barriers
- Criteria: Self-developed core components, advanced control algorithms, and the ability to iterate over the long term.
- Logic: Companies that control the production of key components will have pricing power.
3. Competitive Focus
The competition will focus on three areas:
- Market Penetration: Companies that can establish themselves in industrial inspection, logistics, and other demanding applications first will gain a competitive advantage.
- Cost and Mass Production: Lowering the cost of core components will be crucial for scalability.
- Data and Innovation: Access to large amounts of real-world data will enhance the intelligence of robot systems.
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5. Conclusion: Demystification and Return to Reality
The recent events—Yushu's stock price drop, industry disputes, and stricter IPO reviews—represent a collective demystification of the humanoid robot industry.
- Robots are not magical; their value cannot be determined by flashy performances or grand narratives.
- Financing amounts and valuations do not reflect true strength; real orders and customer loyalty are the key indicators.
- Technological prowess alone does not guarantee commercial success; practical applications and profitability are essential.
The humanoid robot industry is a long-term endeavor. This valuation correction will not end it, but it will eliminate companies that rely on hype and fraudulent practices. For investors and industry players, the future will be determined by a company's financial performance and its ability to generate sustainable value.
In summary, the value of a company will no longer be based on its technical capabilities but on its financial health and its ability to generate real revenue and customer loyalty. This marks a shift from a venture capital-driven to a more industry-based evaluation. Only the companies that can prove their practical value will survive and thrive in the long run.