Apple iPhone 18 Pro Series Launch: Higher Prices Meet Cool Reception; Scalpers Are Less Active, and Online Prices Have Dropped Below the Official Price
As a financial journalist who has long observed the consumer electronics market, I just returned from the Apple flagship store in Shenzhen. If you thought the iPhone 18 Pro series would trigger a frenzy of purchases this year, with scalpers adding thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan to the prices, you might be disappointed.
The situation this time is quite intriguing: although there are still people lining up outside stores, scalpers' enthusiasm has clearly cooled down, and online prices have even dropped below the official launch price. This reflects not only a change in Apple's pricing strategy but also a profound shift in consumer behavior and the competitive landscape of the smartphone market.
Below, I will break down five key signals behind this news in plain language.
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1. Scalpers Are Less Profitable: Less Price Markup, Some Refuse to Buy
In the past, scalpers were the main players on iPhone launch days. They had cash, and consumers had the products; a simple deal meant a profit for the scalpers. This time, however, things are different:
- Reduced Markup: Last year, scalpers could add $600-$800 or more to the price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max. This year, for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, they are only adding $400-$500, and for the 512GB version, only $400.
- Selective Buying: Many scalpers are clearly only interested in the Pro Max and not the Pro version. Why? Because the Pro Max is the top-of-the-line model with relatively strong demand, while the Pro version lacks appeal due to its lower cost-performance ratio.
- Price Drops Predicted: Some scalpers even predicted that the iPhone 18 Pro would sell below the official price. By 10 a.m., some scalpers were buying Pro versions for just $50, indicating poor market liquidity.
In simple terms: Scalers are often the best barometers of market sentiment. When their profit margins shrink, it means people are no longer willing to pay high premiums for the “newness” of a product. Previously, the focus was on scarcity; now, consumers are more concerned with getting a good deal.
2. Is Apple “Pushing Customers Away”? Higher Storage Prices Deter Potential Buyers
The reason scalpers are less aggressive and consumers are hesitant is simple: Apple’s price increases were too significant, especially for storage options.
- Increased Starting Price: The starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro is $9,999, $1,000 more than the previous generation with the same specs.
- Painful Storage Price Hikes: The price difference for upgrading storage has increased dramatically:
- Last year, 1TB was $2,000 more expensive than 512GB.
- This year, 1TB is $3,000 or more more expensive than 512GB.
- This means consumers are paying a substantial extra for more storage.
In simple terms: Consumers used to think it was worth paying extra for more storage, but now Apple is charging significantly more. Many are questioning whether they really need 1TB, and whether buying 512GB or 256GB is more economical.
3. Online Price Drops Are Normal: Pinduoduo’s Subsidies Set the New Standard
With fewer scalpers buying at high prices, online retailers are taking the lead by lowering prices:
- Pre-sale Hype: On September 12, the iPhone 18 Pro Max reached a price of $13,999 on the Dianwu platform (3,000 more than the official price), but this excitement only lasted for three days.
- Quick Price Drops: By September 15, prices had dropped to around $11,500-$11,800.
- E-commerce Price Drops: E-commerce platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo saw prices below the official price. For example, with Pinduoduo’s subsidies, the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro was available for $9,099.
- This means you can buy it directly from the store for $900 less than the official price, without waiting in line or relying on scalpers.
In simple terms: Consumers realize that buying on launch days is no longer the best deal. Platforms like Pinduoduo’s subsidies have become the new reference point for prices. As long as Apple doesn’t lower its prices, retailers will use discounts to drive sales. This trend has continued for three years, indicating that Apple’s pricing power in China is being challenged by retailers and competitors.
4. Shortages Are Real, but “Hunger Marketing” Isn’t Working
Apple store staff reported out-of-stock situations, with reservations requiring waiting until the end of October. This might seem like demand exceeds supply, but considering scalper activity and online prices, we need to look at it differently:
- Selective Shortages: Shortages may be more pronounced for certain colors (like red, blue) or storage options.
- Non-Purchase-Driven Shortages: If there were a real rush for products, scalpers would be adding large markups. However, the low markup suggests that demand hasn’t surged.
- Supply Chain Strategy: Apple might be deliberately controlling initial shipments to create a sense of scarcity, but the lukewarm market response indicates this tactic’s effectiveness is diminishing.
In simple terms: It’s like a restaurant with long queues, but many tables are empty—consumers are just waiting to see what’s available, not necessarily to buy immediately. The scarcity is more about supply chain management and distribution.
5. Future Uncertainties: The Standard iPhone and the Foldable iPhone Duo
The performance of the iPhone 18 Pro series is just the beginning. The real story will depend on two upcoming products:
- Standard iPhone 18: Not yet released, it usually has lower prices and a broader audience. If the Pro series doesn’t sell well, can the standard version attract buyers with its better value?
- iPhone Duo (foldable screen): Released on October 23 for $15,999-$26,499, the most expensive iPhone in Apple’s history.
- Scalper Activity: Prices for the previous generation on Xianyu have dropped from over $5,000 to below $1,000.
- Significance: This suggests that while the foldable screen model is interesting, its initial excitement is fading.
In simple terms: Apple is betting on the foldable screen, hoping to maintain its premium image with its high price. However, if the Pro series struggles due to high prices, the success of the Duo will depend on whether its features and price appeal to the market.
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Summary: Apple Faces a “Trust Crisis” and a Return to Rationality
The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro series reveals several key trends:
1. More Rational Consumers: People are no longer blindly chasing new products; they are focusing on value and price.
2. Challenged Pricing Strategy: Sharp price increases, especially for storage, have dampened demand.
3. Rising Power of Retailers: Platforms like Pinduoduo are weakening Apple’s ability to set launch prices through discounts and transparency.
4. Divided Market: The Pro Max still has a market, but the Pro version is less popular; the foldable screen model is interesting but may not sustain its initial hype.
Tips for Consumers:
- Wait: If you don’t need the Pro Max, you can wait for prices to drop further.
- Compare Prices: Check discounts on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com; they often offer better deals than physical stores.
- Buy What You Need: Don’t pay extra for more storage unless you really need it.
Apple remains a giant in the smartphone industry, but it’s no longer the one that can set prices at will. The market is becoming more rational, which is actually good news for consumers.