Observations on the Launch of the Apple iPhone 18 Pro: While Scalpers Refuse to Buy, the Foldable Screen Takes the Spotlight
Hello everyone, I'm your financial journalist and economist. Today, we're talking about the just-released Apple iPhone 18 Pro series.
If you just look at the headlines, you might think, "Apple has sold out again!" But if you dig deeper into the details of this launch, you'll notice a very unusual and even somewhat “cold” phenomenon: As the flagship of flagships, the iPhone 18 Pro Max is being eagerly sought after by scalpers at increased prices on the second-hand market, yet the standard iPhone 18 Pro has seen its price drop below its original cost and is even being rejected by scalpers.
What's going on behind this? Is it that Apple has lost its edge, or has the market changed? Let's break it down into five key points in plain language.
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1. The Scene is Booming, but Scalpers are Picky: Pro Max is Hot, Pro is Cold
Let's start with the most obvious indicator: scalpers. In the past, on iPhone launch days, scalpers would buy everything they could because they could make a profit. This time, however, things are different.
Reporters observed outside Apple's direct stores in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen that although there were still long queues, scalpers' attitudes showed a clear polarization:
1. The Pro Max is the “hard currency”: Especially the red version, scalpers were willing to buy it back at prices 300 to 1000 yuan higher. Why? Because the Pro Max is the top-of-the-line model with a more targeted audience, and even with the price increase, the purchasing power of high-end users remains strong.
2. The Pro version is being “dismissed”: Many scalpers simply refused to buy it or only agreed to buy it at the official website price. Some even said, “The Pro is easy to come by; there's no need to rush.”
What does this mean?
It indicates that consumers don't find the iPhone 18 Pro (non-Pro Max version) attractive enough to pay a premium for. They think it’s “good enough” but not “rare enough.” This uneven demand directly reflects the real market preferences for different price segments.
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2. Why aren’t People Hurrying to Buy? Three Main Reasons
Since no one is rushing to buy the Pro version, what are they waiting for? Tarun Pathak, the research director at Counterpoint Research, identified three practical reasons:
1. Waiting for the “Foldable Screen iPhone Duo”:
This is the biggest factor. Apple is releasing a foldable phone this year (the iPhone Duo), expected to be available in late October. Many people who were planning to buy the Pro are waiting to see if the foldable screen will be more impressive and whether the price will be more attractive. With the foldable phone coming soon, buying a traditional flagship phone now seems less worthwhile or less trendy.
2. The Previous Generation (iPhone 17 Pro) Was Still Great:
The improvements in the 18 Pro are seen as minimal by many. For example, the chip performance boost is limited, and the design changes are not significant. Compared to the 17 Pro, which offered great value for money and may still be available at a discount, many users think, “The 17 Pro is sufficient; why spend an extra 1000 yuan on the 18 Pro?” This has extended the cycle between phone replacements.
3. Siri AI is Not Available in China:
A major selling point of the 18 Pro is its AI capabilities (the upgraded Siri). However, this feature has not yet been launched in the Chinese market. For Chinese consumers, “If I can’t use the AI features you’re promoting, why should I pay a premium for it?” This directly weakens the product’s appeal in China.
In summary: Consumers don’t lack money; they’re waiting for something better or cheaper.
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3. Prices Have Gone Up, but Consumers Are More Savvy: Trade-ins Become a Lifeline
A significant change with the iPhone 18 Pro series is the price increase. Due to rising costs of materials like memory, the starting prices of both the Pro and Pro Max have increased by 1000 yuan, with the top-of-the-line version rising by 3500 yuan.
Price increases usually lead to decreased sales, but Apple has a trick up its sleeve: trade-in incentives.
Reporters noticed that store staff were actively promoting trade-in programs. In addition to cash discounts for old phones, Apple offered additional subsidies ranging from 0 to 500 yuan for new purchases.
This strategy is clever:
- For existing users: You were planning to upgrade anyway, and now you can get a few hundred yuan in cash for your old phone, effectively offsetting the price increase.
- For Apple: By offering subsidies, Apple retains its existing user base (those with iPhones 14, 15, or 16) and prevents them from switching to Android.
So, despite the higher prices, the combination of high trade-in values and purchase subsidies helps Apple maintain its customer base. This is also why there are still long queues at stores—many people are there to trade in their old phones, not to buy new ones at the higher prices.
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4. The “Underground War” in the Supply Chain: Who’s Making the Money?
For financial analysts, whether a phone sells well is one thing, but who benefits from the supply chain is another. The supply chain behind the iPhone 18 Pro reveals some interesting insights:
1. Heat Dissipation Has Become a New Bottleneck: Due to the higher power consumption of the new chip, Apple increased the heat dissipation area (using VC thermal vents). ASUS Technologies is a major beneficiary as a supplier.
2. Camera Technology Upgrade: The Pro series introduced variable aperture technology for the first time, involving precision motors and optical components. Sunwoda Optoelectronics and Lixun Precision have entered this high-value segment.
3. The Notch Has Become Smaller: To integrate Face ID under the screen, the notch area has been reduced. Crystal Optoelectronics provided the 3D sensing components for this.
4. Assembly remains Stable: Hon Hai and Foxconn remain the leading manufacturers, with Lixun Precision in second place.
Key Point: Analyst Pu Deyu lowered the production forecast for the Pro series (about 72 million units in 2026) due to limited supply of variable aperture cameras. This suggests that although demand is lukewarm, the technical challenges for manufacturers have increased, and profits may be concentrated among these core component suppliers.
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5. Future Outlook: Sales Will Be More Steady, with the Foldable Screen Taking the Lead
Let’s predict the future trends:
1. Pro Series Sales Won’t Be Explosive: Unlike in the past, the iPhone 18 Pro won’t sell out immediately. Sales will be more gradual. Many users will wait to see the price and availability of the foldable iPhone Duo, or until Siri AI is available in China, or perhaps until the standard iPhone 18 (next year) is released before making a decision.
2. The Foldable iPhone Duo Is the Real Game Changer: Despite the Pro series’ modest performance, the foldable iPhone Duo (expected to launch on October 23) is the biggest highlight of the year. Counterpoint predicts its annual shipments to reach around 6 million units, accounting for 25% of the global foldable market. This indicates that Apple is aiming to expand into a new market with the foldable phone, rather than relying solely on traditional flagships.
3. Advice for Consumers:
- If you need to upgrade and have a budget, the Pro Max is still a good choice, especially the red version, which retains its value well.
- If you’re not in a hurry, wait and see the price and experience of the foldable iPhone Duo before making a decision.
- If you have an old iPhone, now is a good time to trade it in for a significant discount.
In summary: The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro marks a shift from “hunger marketing” to more rational consumer behavior. Consumers are now more focused on value for money and the practical implementation of new technologies like foldable screens and AI. For Apple, the challenge will be to balance price increases with customer retention and to ensure the success of the foldable iPhone Duo in the coming quarters.