Foldable Phones: An Expensive “Premature” Experiment
As an economist who has long observed the tech industry, after reading this in-depth analysis of the iPhone Duo (referring to Apple’s upcoming or already released foldable product, based on hypothetical or recent leaks) and the entire foldable phone industry, my main takeaway is that we are in an awkward period of technological “immaturity.”
This article is not just criticizing a particular phone; it reveals the deep-seated contradictions in the foldable industry regarding physical limitations, materials science, and business logic. For the average consumer, this is not just a review but also a “warning guide” and a “market health check.”
Below, I will break down this news into five key aspects to help you fully understand the weaknesses of foldable phones and why they are not yet suitable for the majority of people.
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1. Physical Limitations: Exposing Engineering Shortcomings
The article mentions that Tim, the founder of FilmHurricane, accidentally damaged the iPhone Duo’s display by bending it in the opposite direction, and Apple’s customer service refused to cover the damage, claiming it was “man-made.” This incident seems like a public relations crisis but actually exposes the core issue with foldable phones: their hinges have extremely low tolerance for misuse.
- Simple Explanation:
Imagine folding an ordinary A4 paper and then unfolding it—nothing happens. But if you try to bend it in the opposite direction, the paper will wrinkle or break. The hinge of a foldable phone is similar to the crease in that paper. Li Nan (former CMO of Meizu) questioned the purpose of such a test, from a “normal use” perspective. However, Tim’s extreme action revealed the physical limits of the product. The real engineering problem is why a flagship phone, priced at tens of thousands of yuan, lacks sufficient “buffering” or protection mechanisms against minor reverse forces. A traditional phone can be dropped or pressed without damage because it’s made of a single piece of glass and metal. But with a foldable phone, the complex mechanical hinge structure makes its stress distribution much more complex.
Conclusion: This is not a user’s fault but a lack of engineering design for abnormal forces. If the phone can’t withstand even a slight reverse bend, the risk of damage increases in everyday use.
2. Mohs Hardness: The Power of a Grain of Sand
One of the most damning data points in the article is the low Mohs hardness of the Samsung Z Fold8’s display, which is only 2, compared to 7 for quartz sand.
- Simple Explanation:
Mohs hardness is a measure of material toughness:
- Nails: about 2.5
- Foldable Display: about 2-3
- Regular Glass/Keys: about 5.5
- Quartz Sand (main component of dust): about 7
This means:
- Nails can scratch the screen: Your nails are harder than the display, and a slight scratch can occur.
- Sand can damage it: An almost invisible grain of sand with a hardness of 7 can be pressed into the display’s softer surface when the phone is closed, causing damage.
The article mentions users’ habits of wiping their hands before closing the phone to check for dust, highlighting this risk. This is not a problem specific to Apple or Huawei but a common limitation of flexible materials. To make phones foldable, manufacturers have sacrificed durability.
Conclusion: Foldable displays are like soft candy, and the dust in our environment is like sharp glass. Even a single grain of sand can cause serious damage. This is not a quality control issue but a limitation of the material itself.
3. Thermal Issues: The Hinge’s Impact on Heat Dissipation
Tim found the phone too hot to hold during the launch event, and Apple’s customer service blamed it on an “adaptation period.” The real reason for the heat is the geometry of the foldable design.
- Simple Explanation:
Mobile phones dissipate heat through a heat sink inside. In traditional phones, the heat sink covers the entire phone, allowing for efficient cooling. In foldable phones, the hinge divides the heat sink, forcing the heat to be concentrated on one side (usually where the camera is located), leaving the other side with no help in cooling.
- Test Data: Tests by vivo, Samsung, and Huawei show that foldable phones heat up significantly under heavy use, leading to performance drops and even thermal shutdowns.
Conclusion: Foldable phones are inherently less efficient at cooling than traditional phones. Apple’s “adaptation period” is a cover for this fundamental structural limitation. For heavy users (gaming, video recording), foldable phones can be uncomfortable to use.
4. Post-Sales Challenges: “Man-Made Damage” as a Default Excuse
The article cites many cases where users of Huawei, Xiaomi, and other brands had their repairs denied due to issues like screen leaks, black spots, and scratches, which were all attributed to “man-made damage.”
- Simple Explanation:
Foldable screens are fragile and susceptible to damage. It’s difficult to completely avoid dust and minor knocks during use. Once a problem occurs, it’s hard to determine whether it’s due to manufacturing defects or user error. To control costs, manufacturers often attribute all non-obvious damage to user misuse.
- Consequences for Consumers: This results in high repair costs and a lack of confidence in the product’s durability. You spend tens of thousands on a phone, only to have to pay thousands more for repairs due to invisible damage.
Conclusion: The fragility of foldable phones creates a systemic risk for consumers. Manufacturers use a vague definition of “man-made damage” to avoid responsibility for material weaknesses.
5. Economic Considerations: Triple Price, Half Life
Foldable phones cost three times as much as traditional phones, but their repair costs are also much higher, and they only account for 2% of the market.
- Purchase Cost: Flagship foldable phones range from 10,000 to 20,000 yuan.
- Repair Cost: Replacing the display can cost anywhere from 3,000 to 8,000 yuan, nearly half the phone’s original price.
- Durability: Foldable phones are more prone to damage, reducing their overall lifespan.
This creates an awkward situation where consumers pay a premium for a device that requires extra care.
Counterpoint predicts a 37% growth in the foldable market by 2027, but this is more about market expectations and manufacturer strategies. For most users, unless they have specific business needs (e.g., large screens for documents or multitasking), foldable phones are not cost-effective or user-friendly.
Conclusion: Foldable phones are currently a product with high investment, high risk, and low reliability. They need significant improvements in materials (e.g., increasing hardness) and cooling systems before they become more practical tools.
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Summary and Recommendations
The main message of this article is that the foldable phone industry is facing a clash between technological limitations and commercial expansion.
- For Consumers: If you’re not a heavy business user or don’t have a strong need for a large screen, it’s best to wait. Traditional phones still outperform foldable phones in terms of reliability, cooling, and repair costs.
- For Tech Enthusiasts: If you decide to buy a foldable phone, be prepared:
1. Use a screen protector: It can’t prevent damage, but it can reduce scratches from nails.
2. Wipe your hands before closing the phone: This simple habit can help avoid damage.
3. Avoid extreme temperatures and heavy usage: Reduce activities that generate heat and strain on the phone.
4. Consider purchasing insurance: It’s the best way to mitigate high repair costs.
The future of foldable phones lies in breakthroughs in materials. Until there are significant improvements in hardness, cooling, and reliability, they remain a beautiful but fragile “premature” technology.