Summary of Key Points
This article focuses on the strategic significance of the three Caucasus countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) in the context of Russia-Europe tensions, as well as the EU's efforts to align with them. The Caucasus region has become a focal point for both parties due to its potential to create a "second front" against Russia and provide alternative energy corridors. The EU adopts a differentiated strategy towards these countries: actively pushing Armenia to join the EU, considering Azerbaijan as an essential energy partner, and maintaining a complex relationship with Georgia despite its shift in alignment. If Turkey were to join the EU, it would become a crucial stepping stone for the EU's expansion into the Caucasus. The southern border of the Caucasus may become another point of contention between Russia and Europe in the future.
Why Have the Three Caucasus Countries Suddenly Become so Desirable? – The “New Battlefield” of Russia-Europe Tensions
The three Caucasus countries are strategically located, sandwiched between Russia to the north, Iran to the south, Turkey to the west, and Central Asia to the east. For the EU, they possess two key values:
1. Military Deterrence: They offer the possibility of establishing a "second front" in southern Russia, thereby diverting its attention from the Ukraine conflict.
2. Energy Routes: The EU aims to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. The Caucasus serves as the shortest route for Central Asian energy resources (such as those from Uzbekistan) to Europe, passing through Azerbaijan, Armenia/Georgia, and Turkey.
Additionally, Baku, which was once one of the five largest cities in the Soviet Union, indicates that the region has a certain economic foundation and is not entirely uninhabited.
The EU's Differential Approach to the Three Countries
The EU treats each country differently, much like it would treat three different friends:
- Armenia: The EU is actively seeking to incorporate Armenia into its ranks. In 2026, the two rotating EU presidencies held a summit in Armenia, stating that the country could become a new trade hub. Armenia is seen as a potential alternative route for Central Asian goods to Europe, allowing it to completely break free from Russian dependence. The European Parliament supported Armenia's EU membership in 2024, and Armenia itself passed the necessary legislation in 2025, making its integration the fastest-moving process.
- Azerbaijan: Although a significant energy supplier (with natural gas exports increasing by 56% in the past three years, accounting for 5% of Europe's total imports and serving 16 countries), Azerbaijan is not allowed to join the EU. This is partly due to its Muslim majority; the EU views it more as an important partner rather than a full member.
- Georgia: Once pro-European, Georgia has shifted towards Russia after the 2024 elections. The EU has temporarily suspended its candidacy process but does not want to alienate it completely, as Azerbaijan's energy pipelines pass through Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Turkey's Role as a “Stepping Stone”
As a NATO member, Turkey has long desired EU membership. If admitted, it would provide significant benefits:
1. Strategic Bridge: Turkey's proximity to the Caucasus countries would enable the EU to extend its influence in this region.
2. Energy Hub: Turkey aims to become a natural gas transit hub, replacing the damaged Nord Stream pipeline. This aligns with the EU's energy needs, allowing both parties to benefit economically.
Future Uncertainties: Could the Caucasus Become the Next Conflict Zone?
The current EU-Russia border consists of three sections: the northern part is fixed by NATO, and the central section (where the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolds) is nearing a ceasefire agreement. The most uncertain part is the southern section involving the Caucasus countries.
Several factors could lead to tensions:
- Whether Armenia's EU membership will provoke Russia,
- Whether Georgia will re-align with Europe,
- Whether Turkey will join the EU,
- Whether Russian interference will disrupt energy cooperation with Azerbaijan.
These variables could turn the Caucasus into another potential flashpoint for conflict between Russia and Europe, akin to an unsecured gasoline barrel that can explode with a small spark.
In summary, the three Caucasus countries have become a new focus of the Russia-Europe rivalry. The EU is actively making moves, and Russia will certainly not relinquish its interests in this region. The future development of the situation could impact Europe's energy security and potentially alter the geopolitical landscape of the entire Eurasian continent. Although these changes may not be immediately apparent to ordinary people, they could affect energy prices, trade routes, and even international stability.