Summary of Key Points
Last year, Guangdong outperformed all other provinces in terms of urban population growth: Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Guangzhou accounted for the top three increases in national urban populations, with six of the top eight cities being from Guangdong. In contrast, Jiangsu experienced negative population growth, and Hangzhou, which has seen the strongest talent attraction in the Yangtze River Delta region, only ranked seventh in terms of population increase in Guangdong. The reasons for this can be divided into two main factors: first, a large influx of migrant populations (artificial growth); second, high birth rates among local residents (natural growth), which are related to the regional industrial structure, urban inclusiveness, age distribution of the population, and differences in parenting attitudes.
#### 1. The Industrial Structure Does Not Discriminate: It’s Easier for Ordinary People to Find Jobs in Guangdong
The leading cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai (such as Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou) have been focusing on high-end industries and have moved many factories that employ ordinary workers to Anhui or other inland areas, leaving low-skilled laborers without jobs. However, Guangdong maintains a mix of mid- to low-end industries, even in cities with GDPs in the trillions (such as Dongguan and Foshan).
For example, in the Yangtze River Delta, it may be difficult to find a stable job without education or skills; in Dongguan, entering an electronics factory can earn a monthly salary of around 4,000 to 5,000 yuan with relatively low barriers. This balanced industrial structure ensures that people of various skill levels have employment opportunities, naturally attracting more migrants.
#### 2. Urban Villages Are the Key to Affordable Housing: Low-Income Residents Can Also Afford to Live There
Cities in the Yangtze River Delta (like Hangzhou and Nanjing) have largely demolished their urban villages, leaving residents with either expensive apartment complexes or costly single rooms. In Guangdong, however, urban villages are still common, and although they may appear chaotic, rent is relatively low—single rooms in Shenzhen can cost as little as 1,000 yuan, and in Dongguan, even less. For workers, having a place to live is essential for staying; the high cost of living in the Yangtze River Delta makes it difficult for many to stay when they don’t earn much. Guangdong’s inclusiveness means that people with monthly salaries of 3,000 yuan can still find a decent place to live.
#### 3. The Younger Population in Guangdong: More People of Childbearing Age, Higher Natural Growth
The natural growth of the population (children born to local residents) is key to Guangdong’s advantage over Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Last year, these two provinces experienced negative natural population growth, while Guangdong had a net increase of 290,000 people. The reason is not that Guangdongers simply prefer having more children, but rather that the population in Guangdong is younger.
For instance, the median age in Shenzhen is only 32 years old (the lowest in the country), and similar figures apply to Dongguan and Guangzhou. In contrast, the median age in cities like Shanghai and Suzhou is over 38 years old, with a decline in fertility rates for women over 35. With more people of childbearing age, Guangdong naturally has higher birth rates.
#### 4. Lower Pressure on Raising Children: Families in Guangdong Are More Open to Having a Second Child
Raising children in Jiangsu and Zhejiang follows an “elite” model, where every family strives for the best education for their children and spends nearly 1 million yuan per year on tutoring. This high cost discourages many working-class families from having a second child. In Guangdong, the approach is more relaxed: if a child does well in school, parents support them fully; if not, they can choose other options like working in factories or doing business with relatives.
A friend from Guangdong mentioned that their family spends much less on tutoring than families in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and does not pressure children to attend prestigious schools. This more relaxed attitude reduces financial and psychological burdens, making it easier for families to have more children.
#### In Conclusion
Guangdong’s rapid population growth is due to its inclusive industrial structure, affordable living costs, and a younger population suitable for childbearing. These factors are worth considering for cities like Jiangsu and Zhejiang as they develop high-end industries. While focusing on advanced industries is important, it’s also crucial to ensure that ordinary people have opportunities to thrive.