Summary of Key Points
Ten years have passed since the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) due to a combination of factors such as internal political gambles, immigration anxiety, a long-standing anti-EU sentiment, and imbalances in globalization. The consequences have been severe: GDP per capita has decreased by 6-8%, trade has shrunk by 15%, and the immigration issue has worsened. More than half of the population regrets the decision. However, rejoining the EU faces three major obstacles: internal divisions within the UK, strict EU requirements, and a lack of trust. Brexit has exposed Britain's own problems, such as stagnant growth, political decline, and regional tensions. This experience serves as a reminder that quitting regional cooperation comes at a high cost, and sovereignty must be balanced with interdependence.
1. How Did Brexit Happen?
The 2016 referendum was not a sudden outbreak of populism but the culmination of conflicts that had been building for two to three decades:
- A failed political gamble: Cameron hoped to use the referendum to appease anti-EU elements within the Conservative Party and gain back votes from the UK Independence Party, but he underestimated public opinion.
- Three sources of anger:
1. Immigration anxiety: The expansion of the EU in 2004 led to a influx of Eastern European workers, which caused resentment among lower-income workers who felt their wages were being depressed and that resources were being depleted.
2. A long-standing anti-EU sentiment: Britain has always had a complex relationship with the EU, wanting special treatment while criticizing Brussels' bureaucracy.
3. Imbalances in globalization: London's financial elites benefited greatly, while the northern industrial regions were neglected, leading to resentment towards the EU.
- The propaganda campaign lost due to arrogance: The Brexit supporters used slogans like "350 million pounds per week to the EU could be spent on the NHS" and promised a "global Britain" with fewer immigrants. The pro-EU side only talked about economic disasters but failed to understand the workers' concerns, turning the referendum into a protest against the elites.
2. Ten Years of Losses Due to Brexit: Economic Decline and Increased Immigration
The costs of Brexit are evident:
- Economic losses: GDP per capita is 6-8% lower than if Britain had stayed in the EU; business investment has decreased by 12-18%, and employment and efficiency have both dropped by 3-4%, resulting in total losses of approximately £180-240 billion (more severe than initially predicted).
- Trade collapse: Imports and exports have both shrunk by 15%, and 16,000 small businesses have given up exporting to the EU. Alternative markets (such as the US and India) have only contributed 0.47% to GDP, making the concept of a "global Britain" a joke.
- Financial sector's impact: £1.3 trillion in assets and 7,000 jobs have moved to Dublin and Frankfurt.
- Counterproductive immigration policy: Although EU immigration has decreased, non-EU immigration has increased significantly (944,000 net immigrants in 2023, three times the number in 2015). This has created issues such as overburdened farms and hospitals relying on workers from India and Nigeria.
The EU, on the other hand, has suffered relatively minor losses (GDP decreased by only 0.2-0.5%) and has been able to advance in defense integration without Britain's influence.
3. Regret but No Return: Three Barriers to Rejoining the EU
Over 56% of the population regrets Brexit, but rejoining is ten times more difficult:
- Internal barriers: The social divisions caused by the referendum have not healed, and no party dares to propose another referendum. Anti-EU elements within the Conservative Party and the emerging Reform Party will strongly oppose it. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, has clearly stated that Britain will not return to the single market or customs union.
- EU barriers: Brussels' conditions are harsh: Britain would have to change its budgeting practices, potentially join the eurozone or Schengen area, pay higher fees, and obtain unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
- Trust issues: The EU is wary of creating a precedent for easy membership changes and is concerned about Britain's political instability (five prime ministers in five years).
The only option now is a "soft reset," such as signing agreements with the EU to lower trade barriers, but this comes with accepting European court jurisdiction and extended fishing rights. However, Britain will not receive special treatment.
4. Brexit Is Just a Symptom of Britain's Fundamental Problems
Brexit is not the root cause of Britain's issues; it has merely exacerbated them:
- Stagnant growth: Since the 2008 financial crisis, Britain's productivity has not increased significantly, and Brexit has made investment and innovation even worse, with GDP growth averaging around 1% annually.
- Demographic and healthcare crises: The aging population and a failing NHS have worsened due to the loss of EU-funded skilled workers and seasonal labor.
- Political decline: Five prime ministers in five years (Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, etc.) have weakened the government. Truss' tax cuts lasted only 49 days, and internal party conflicts have drained resources.
- Regional divisions: The Labour Party's loss of dominance in Welsh elections and ongoing calls for Scottish independence highlight internal instability.
The real problems lie in the post-war welfare system, ineffective governance, and the loss of a former imperial status. "Regaining control" has only given Britain nominal sovereignty without solving these underlying issues.
5. A Lesson for the World: Regional Cooperation Is Not a Child's Play; Sovereignty Cannot Be Isolated
This experience teaches all countries:
- High costs of quitting regional cooperation: The single market and customs union are "public goods," and leaving comes with both direct (tariffs, barriers) and indirect (loss of trust) costs, making rejoining more difficult.
- Sovereignty is not independent: Sovereignty cannot be separated from economic interdependence; Britain has gained some nominal powers but lost more in terms of economy and influence.
- Integration must include all stakeholders: The EU needs to address the concerns of marginalized groups, or anti-EU sentiment could resurge in countries like France and the Netherlands.
- Flexibility is key: The EU may need a flexible approach that allows non-members to join based on their needs (e.g., like Switzerland's model), and Britain must accept its geographical constraints and seek closer ties with Europe.
Ten years ago, 49% of the population favored staying in the EU. Time is proving that Britain and Europe are inseparable.
This analysis explains the complexities and lessons of Brexit in simple language, making it accessible to a general audience.