第一财经

AI Short Drama Investigation: Surplus Production Capacity with No Place to Go

原文:AI短剧调查:无处安放的产能

Summary of Key Points

AI-driven short-form dramas are becoming a hit in both domestic and international content industries: from the domestic drama "From Rascal Snake to Evolution," which generated 10 million yuan in revenue with a 15-fold return on investment, to the overseas drama "After Divorce," which earned over 1 million US dollars at the box office. AI short-form dramas have revolutionized the production process with their advantages of low cost, high efficiency, and low risk. They have not only attracted grassroots entrepreneurs (such as "JiuYao") but also traditional film and television industry giants (like Tang Jili), making it possible to bring to life themes that were previously unfeasible due to budget constraints and risks, thus becoming the hottest new battleground in the content industry.

Why Have AI Short-Form Dramas Suddenly Become Popular? Both Grassroots Entrepreneurs and Big Players Are Jumping In

The popularity of AI short-form dramas is not accidental; it is the result of a combination of "technological innovation, market demand, and low entry barriers."

  • From Servant to Annual Revenue of 1 Billion: Entrepreneur "JiuYao," originally a web novelist, realized that traditional animated dramas were expensive (5,000 yuan per minute). After the iteration of AI video models, he produced "Stewarding the Intermediary Sect" for just over 100,000 yuan, achieving 30 million views and a net profit of 300,000 yuan. His team now ranks in the top ten of TikTok's AI short-form drama hits, with expected revenue of 1 billion yuan in 2026—a scale that was difficult for grassroots creators to achieve in the era of traditional live-action dramas.
  • Traditional Giants Turning to AI: Director Tang Jili, who has worked on "Red Fan District," is also entering the AI drama market with his production "Feng Shui Master," which garnered 600 million views. The involvement of traditional film and television professionals indicates that AI short-form dramas represent a significant industry trend.
  • Popular Overseas as Well: Jing Ying Technology's "After Divorce" quickly made it to overseas bestseller lists, earning over 1 million US dollars at the box office, followed by "The Billionaire's Return," which generated several million dollars in revenue. Themes such as exciting stories and tales of personal transformation have a global audience for AI short-form dramas.

Cost Efficiency Outperforms Live-Action Dramas: Production Cycles Are Reduced from Months to Weeks, and Labor Requirements are Halved

The most significant advantage of AI short-form dramas is their speed and cost-effectiveness, which completely disrupts the traditional production logic.

  • Time: While traditional live-action dramas take a month to produce, AI short-form dramas can be launched within two days. The 42 Studio used Seedance2.0 to streamline the process, eliminating the need for image editing.
  • Labor: What used to require 40 people (writers, directors, actors, etc.) for a traditional live-action drama now can be done by just 3-10 people with AI: writers create scripts, directors produce storyboards, "card-drawing engineers" generate visuals, and editors complete the final product. ManSen Culture's AI team of 50 people has the same production capacity as a traditional team of 300 people (10-15 dramas per month).
  • Cost: The cost for an AI short-form drama is one-fourth to even lower than that of a live-action drama. For example, while a ManSen A-level drama costs 400,000-800,000 yuan, an AI drama costs only 100,000-200,000 yuan—using the money that would otherwise be spent on a bicycle to produce something equivalent to a car.

New Roles Emerge in the Production Chain: "Card-Drawing Engineers" Become Highly Valued, and Computing Power Becomes an Invisible Cost

New roles have emerged in the production of AI short-form dramas, along with hidden costs.

  • **The Importance of "Card-Drawing Engineers": These engineers provide instructions to the AI (e.g., "Ancient fantasy setting, female protagonist standing under a peach tree in white") to generate visuals. On average, 5 attempts are needed to get a satisfactory shot (with a success rate of 20%). This is the most challenging part of the process, as it relies entirely on their guidance.
  • Computing Power Costs: Using AI to generate videos incurs fees for computing power. For example, ByteDance's Seedance2.0 charges 46 yuan per million tokens, or about 1 US dollar per second. If a 1-minute video requires 2-5 rounds of editing, the total cost can exceed 2,000 yuan. ManSen Culture's computing power costs account for over 50% of the total cost, and AIpai.ai's costs even reach 70%, highlighting the significant financial investment behind these dramas.

Innovative Business Models: Trial and Error at a Small Scale, Enabling More Stories to Be Told

The business models of AI short-form dramas address the risk associated with traditional film and television production.

  • Serial Release: Teams like Zhu Jiang start with a few episodes to gauge user reactions before deciding whether to continue or adjust their approach. In contrast, traditional live-action dramas require all episodes to be filmed at once, leading to potential losses if they fail. AI short-form dramas allow for gradual adjustments, minimizing sunk costs.
  • Low-Risk Trial and Error: Low costs make it possible to explore niche themes (such as fantasy or imaginative stories) that were previously unfeasible due to high budget constraints. One industry insider noted, "The real advantage is not just saving money but giving stories a chance to be told."
  • Profitability: AI dramas have higher net profit margins, while live-action dramas have a higher potential for large returns. AI dramas are like buying a lottery ticket for 20 yuan; the investment is small and the risk is low, resulting in higher net profits. Live-action dramas, on the other hand, require a larger investment, but with the potential for huge returns (e.g., 10 million views from a 2-million-dollar investment), offering significant returns—each type has its advantages and will coexist in the long term.

Future Trends: The Rise of AI-Generated Human Characters, Will AI Dramas Replace Live-Action Dramas?

The industry generally expects 2026 to be a year of "AI-generated human characters exploding in popularity":

  • From Comics to Live Action: Teams like JiuYao plan to transition from comic styles to AI-generated human characters, as live-action visuals are more appealing to the general public. The 42 Studio can already produce movie-quality visuals with Seedance2.0, improving the realism of these productions.
  • Coexistence Rather than Replacement: Live-action dramas offer a sense of authenticity and higher potential for large-scale productions, while AI dramas are fast, cost-effective, and flexible. In the future, the two will complement each other: live-action dramas will focus on high-quality, big-budget productions, while AI dramas will handle niche or exciting content.

The rapid rise of AI short-form dramas represents a technological revolution in content production, lowering entry barriers and empowering more people to participate in creative processes. This is not just a change within the short-form drama industry but also a reflection of the broader transition towards an "AI-driven" content ecosystem.