Summary of Key Points
This article begins with the internet meme “Nothing Ever Happens” to reveal an interesting phenomenon: this seemingly trivial joke has not only become an investment strategy (with a 73% success rate when betting that nothing will happen) but also reflects a deeper issue in modern society—people’s increasing reliance on immediate feedback and a tendency to think in binary terms of things either happening or not happening, ignoring the lengthy and complex intermediate processes in the real world. The article uses two examples—the bursting of the AI bubble and the narrative shift regarding AI replacing jobs—to illustrate how this way of thinking makes us ignore real problems, emphasizing that the process itself is what constitutes the present reality.
1. The “Nothing Ever Happens” Strategy: Simple, Yet Effective?
The meme’s transformation into an investment strategy is supported by hard data: on Polymarket, a platform for event forecasting, 73% of contracts result in an outcome of “No.” For instance, betting against events like “Israel attacking Iran,” “oil prices soaring,” or “the U.S. stock market crashing” consistently yields a 70% success rate with the choice of “No.” This is as straightforward and low-effort as buying stocks on dips. However, as a researcher, the author disagrees with this approach; if nothing ever happened, what would be the point of research? After all, history tells us that things will happen, though not necessarily tomorrow.
2. The Addiction to Immediate Feedback: Why Can’t We Wait for the “Intermediate Process”?
The article suggests that people’s current way of determining whether something will happen is similar to waiting for a delivery—if there’s no result within 24 hours, they assume it didn’t happen. For example, a startling news story may seem urgent today, but by tomorrow, it’s forgotten. Literary theorist Anna Kornbluh calls this a symptom of “directness”—we’ve lost the intermediate stages and prefer binary outcomes (either success or failure), ignoring the repetitive and lengthy processes in reality. The same applies to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence); people either assume it will arrive next year or never at all, without considering that it may take 5 or 10 years to develop.
3. The Disappearance of the AI Bubble: Is It Really Over, or Do We Lack Patience?
Half a year ago, everyone was talking about the AI bubble, but now fewer people mention it. Why? Because Nvidia’s financial reports were strong and Anthropic’s revenue was good, the market quickly dismissed the concern as unfounded. However, underlying issues (such as whether AI companies’ valuations are reasonable or whether their funding will sustain them) remain unexplored. It’s similar to worrying about failing an exam, only to feel confident after doing well on a small test, without realizing that the final exam is much more challenging.
4. The Reversal of the Narrative Around AI Replacing Jobs: From Panic to “Reality Slapping Us in the Face”—What’s Behind It?
Last year, reports suggested that AI could replace up to 90% of jobs, causing widespread fear. But now, tech company leaders are saying that AI won’t replace entry-level positions in the short term. Why? Because companies have realized problems: Starbucks’ AI inventory tools generated false data, and many spent heavily on AI tokens with little return, forcing them to hire back employees. This is an example of the “doorman fallacy” — while AI can automate simple tasks like opening doors, it still requires human skills for more complex responsibilities. The initial panic turned into a sense of nothing happening when no immediate job losses occurred.
5. Don’t Be Deceived by “Nothing Ever Happens”: The Process Is What Really Matters
The article concludes by reminding us that it’s not that nothing is happening, but rather our narratives create the illusion of nothing happening. Our perception of events becoming or not happening has become blunted, making us overlook potential risks (like the “gray rhino”) and obvious issues (like the elephant in the room). A mentor noted that some years may see no significant changes, while others can be eventful. The author adds that every day is part of a continuous process of things either happening or not happening—these intermediate, complex processes constitute our true reality.
This article serves as a warning: don’t let immediate feedback and binary thinking mislead you. Pay more attention to the processes that are underway but not yet apparent, or you may miss important changes and even stumble into pitfalls.