虎嗅

Bubble: Inevitable

原文:泡沫,不可避免

Summary of Key Points

This news article discusses four interconnected major events:

1. Extreme climate is becoming increasingly severe, with the potential for a super El Niño in 2026 that could disrupt food production and hydroelectric power supplies.

2. SpaceX is about to go public, valued at over $1.8 trillion—this is not just a business deal but also a critical battle for control of low Earth orbit satellite positions globally.

3. Technological competition extends beyond space; both China and the United States are developing bio-AI technologies, such as methods to sterilize mosquitoes.

4. Countries around the world are competing for funds to support high-tech development, with China introducing new regulations to prevent capital outflows and keep money within the country.

#### 1. Extreme Climate: A Super El Niño in 2026 Could Disrupt Food and Power Supplies

Recent weather patterns have become more extreme, with either scorching heat or heavy rainfall. The average temperature in May nationwide was 0.6°C higher than in previous years, and precipitation levels were the highest in nearly a decade. What’s more concerning is the possibility of a “Godzilla-level” super El Niño in the second half of 2026, with the United States predicting a 37% chance of such an event.

What would this mean? Abnormal weather patterns could lead to flooding in major grain-producing areas in the north (such as the Northeast) and severe droughts in hydroelectric regions in the south (such as Sichuan). This could result in reduced food production and shortages of hydropower, potentially driving up prices for commodities like food and electricity. In simple terms, buying groceries or paying utility bills might become more expensive, or certain goods may become harder to obtain.

#### 2. SpaceX’s IPO: More Than Just a Business Deal—It’s a Battle for Space Control

SpaceX is expected to go public in June 2026, valued at at least $1.8 trillion—higher than Meta and Tesla combined. The reason for this high valuation is that the company is competing for valuable low Earth orbit satellite positions. There are only a limited number of slots in low Earth orbit (400-2000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface), and these are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. SpaceX already has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, accounting for more than 60% of the global total; China is also eager to secure its share, having applied for 200,000 satellite slots and must launch 20,000 of them within seven years to maintain its rights.

This is not just a regular business venture. Whoever controls more satellite positions gains control of critical space capabilities, such as satellite communications and navigation. SpaceX’s funding from the IPO will enable it to accelerate satellite launches, putting pressure on other aerospace companies around the world, including China. Despite its current massive losses ($4.9 billion in 2025), investors are willing to support this mission because it represents humanity’s dream of exploring beyond Earth.

#### 3. Technological Competition Extends Beyond Space: China and the US Battle Mosquitoes

Technological innovation is also being applied to practical problems, such as mosquito control. Google uses AI-powered robots to sort mosquitoes, releasing male mosquitoes infected with bacteria that prevent them from mating with wild females, thereby reducing the mosquito population. China, on the other hand, uses nuclear technology to sterilize male mosquitoes and has factories capable of producing 50 million sterile mosquitoes per week, which have been deployed in Mexico and Brazil.

Behind this is a competition in AI and biotechnology: Google’s robots can sort millions of mosquitoes per hour, making them thousands of times more efficient than manual methods; China’s technology has also been recognized by the World Health Organization. The reason for this intense competition is that warmer climates lead to larger mosquito populations, increasing the risk of infectious diseases, and it’s also a showcase of technological prowess.

#### 4. Global Competition for Funds to Support High-Tech: China Introduces New Regulations

High-tech development requires substantial funding, and countries are competing to attract investment. The U.S. stock market has reached record highs, attracting capital. In China, however, $1.04 trillion in hot money flowed out in 2025, with many people opening overseas accounts. To address this, new regulations will take effect on July 1st, regulating individual investments by residents. Failure to register investments could result in fines of 0.1%-1% of the investment amount or even confiscation of illegal gains.

The goal is to keep capital within China to support high-tech companies in areas such as aerospace and AI. Additionally, there are growing calls for the appreciation of the RMB; if the RMB appreciates against the U.S. dollar by a ratio of 5:1, people holding RMB assets could profit by 25%, which could attract foreign investment to China.

In summary, the current world is characterized by a combination of extreme climate, technological competition, and a global race for capital. Climate change forces us to seek alternative solutions in space, while technological advancements require funding that flows across borders. Countries and companies are competing to secure strategic positions in space, develop new technologies, or retain capital to support their own industries. For ordinary people, this may mean experiencing more extreme weather, more advanced technologies, and increased attention to the flow of money around the world.