虎嗅

Peter Thiel has fled to Argentina to avoid a future that he himself helped to accelerate.

原文:彼得·蒂尔逃往阿根廷,躲避一个他亲手加速的未来

Summary of Key Points

Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley mogul (co-founder of PayPal and early investor in Facebook), recently moved to Argentina. The superficial reason is to avoid California's wealth tax, but the real purpose is to secure a "backout" for himself. He already holds New Zealand citizenship and owns overseas property; now he has purchased a luxury home in Argentina and established connections with the government of Jair Messa. Ironically, the United States he is fleeing is one of the countries he helped shape—especially through companies like Palantir, which developed surveillance tools. Meanwhile, Messa's government in Argentina is using low taxes and relaxed regulations to attract capital while implementing a "social digital twin" initiative that uses AI to simulate society. This situation reveals a stark contradiction of our times: a few individuals have the freedom to control their own destinies (through multiple citizenships and diversified assets), while most people are constrained by systems (surveillance and algorithmic decision-making). The giants fear losing control, yet they create the tools that lead to that very outcome; ordinary people, on the other hand, have no escape.

Breakdown and Interpretation

#### 1. The Magnate's "Backout": Not Like That of Ordinary People

Thiel's fears are of a catastrophic nature—he fears California's wealth tax, global conflicts, and the potential for AI to get out of control. His approach to coping with these threats has been to take extraordinary steps: he obtained New Zealand citizenship in just 12 days in 2011 (with special approval from a minister) and purchased 400 acres of land, possibly with the intention of building an underground bunker. In 2022, he applied for a Maltese passport; now he has moved to Argentina to buy a luxury home and send his children to school. These actions are beyond the imagination of most people. Ordinary people might fear unemployment and try to cut costs, war and seek shelter in air-raid shelters, or job loss and learn new skills. However, while Thiel's fears can be alleviated by additional citizenship and property in another country, ordinary people's fears often remain unresolved, such as anxiety from sleepless nights.

#### 2. Fleeing the United States He Helped Build

Thiel initially wanted to stay away from politics: PayPal was more than just a payment platform; it was seen as a potential "world currency," and Facebook more than just a social media site—it represented an entire "internet nation." But when he realized politics were inescapable, he decided to invest in them. In 2016, he supported Donald Trump and promoted his employee Doug Wehnsen to the position of vice president. Now he is fleeing the United States because he fears a "Antichrist" figure (one that uses fear to strip people of their freedom)—a role he himself has contributed to creating. Low regulations have turned into a situation where capital operates unregulated, anti-bureaucratic measures have led to authoritarian governance, and technological efficiency has been used for surveillance (e.g., with Palantir). Thiel fears the world being controlled by a single entity, yet he played a key role in creating that entity.

#### 3. Palantir: The "Crystal Ball" He Created

Palantir is a company co-founded by Thiel, named after the crystal ball in "The Lord of the Rings" that Sauron used to gain insight into the future. Today, organizations like the Pentagon and immigration authorities use Palantir's software (ImmigrationOS) to efficiently track and deport immigrants. For law enforcement, this is efficiency; for those being tracked, it often means no chance for explanation. Thiel can hide in Argentina, but the tools he created provide detailed records on ordinary people—where they live, how much money they spend, who they contact. This shows his double standards: while he ensures his own safety, he denies others any escape routes.

#### 4. Argentina: From a "Money-Capturing Fortress" to a "Capital Safe House"—What is Messa Betting On?

Argentina was once known for its fiscal policies that trapped citizens' money (the "corralito" measure in 2001). Now, under Messa's leadership, the government is cutting government spending and promoting low taxes and relaxed regulations, presenting itself as a "capital safe house." However, capital is not driven by charity; it follows its own rules (e.g., "he who makes money is right"). Could Argentina's new policies lead to another scenario where a few benefit at the expense of the majority?

#### 5. Social Digital Twin: Turning People into Data Points

Argentina is experimenting with a "social digital twin" initiative, using AI to create a virtual model of society for policy testing. But the model only recognizes data, not individual exceptions. For example, a child dropping out of school might be due to parental illness or a disappearing industry, not laziness. These human factors are ignored by the algorithm. As a result, people become mere data points: if the algorithm determines they need help, they receive it; if it believes they pose a threat, they are targeted. This is similar to the scenario described by Wang Xiaobo about a pig that is predetermined to eat, sleep, and be slaughtered—can ordinary people escape such a fate?

Final Thought

Thiel's moves in Argentina affect systems and the fates of ordinary people. Jair Messa uses technology to make decisions on their behalf. The little girl who plays chess with Thiel might one day find that her rent, health issues, and misjudgments by the system are all part of a larger game orchestrated by others. The future is not inevitable, but we must ask: Is it designed for those with backups or for those without any?