Core Summary
The trend of new energy vehicles (NEVs) such as the NIO ES9 becoming increasingly heavy has become a widespread issue in the industry: empty vehicles typically weigh between 2-3 tons, which is 300-500 kilograms more than their gasoline counterparts. This has led to an increase in the average weight of passenger cars nationwide by nearly 30% over the past decade. The excessive weight brings three major problems: a exponential increase in road wear and tear (due to the "square-law effect"), a significant gap in road maintenance costs (since NEVs do not contribute to fuel taxes), and safety hazards related to braking, tires, and road capacity. However, there is a dilemma in finding a solution: raising road maintenance fees could harm the fragile NEV industry, while imposing weight restrictions would limit range and result in overcapacity. The root causes lie in technological limitations (low energy density of batteries) and overly aggressive industrial policies designed to accelerate growth (which have turned small issues into systemic problems), leaving policymakers in a difficult position.
1. NEVs are Getting Heavier: It's Not an Isolated Phenomenon
The increasing weight of NEVs is not unique to the NIO ES9; it's a trend across the entire industry:
- Data Evidence: The high-end versions of BYD Daimang EV and Tengshi D9 weigh 2.97 tons and 3 tons respectively, exceeding the standard for light trucks (which should weigh less than 2.5 tons).
- Comparison with Gasoline Vehicles: Gasoline vehicles generally weigh between 1.3-1.8 tons, while the electric versions of these models weigh 300-500 kilograms more. For example, the BMW X3 electric version is 350 kg heavier than its fuel-powered counterpart, and the BYD Tang pure-electric model weighs 560 kg more.
- Overall Impact: The average weight of passenger cars in China has increased from 1.3 tons in 2012 to 1.7 tons, an increase of 400 kilograms, with NEVs being a major contributor to this trend.
2. The Hidden Costs of Excessive Weight
The extra weight comes with significant hidden costs:
- Accelerated Road Degradation: According to the "square-law effect" in road engineering, doubling the axle weight results in 16 times more damage to the road surface.
- Unfair Road Maintenance Costs: In China, road maintenance fees are linked to fuel taxes, so NEVs, which do not consume fuel, do not contribute to these costs. With 43.97 million NEVs on the road (12% of total passenger vehicles), this results in a significant financial burden for gasoline vehicle owners.
- International Initiatives: Japan has implemented a weight tax since 2028 (NEVs over 2 tons pay up to 24,000 yen per year), and the United States is also considering such a tax. These countries, where NEVs account for only 5% and 2% of the market respectively, are already facing significant challenges.
3. Taxing or Restricting Weight? A Dilemma for Policy Makers
There is no simple solution to this problem:
- Raising Road Maintenance Fees: NEVs are a key pillar of the industry, but with their current slow growth and declining profitability, raising fees would not be effective. Higher fees could further harm the industry (e.g., affecting capital markets or government investments).
- Weight Restrictions: Restricting weight would limit the amount of battery capacity that can be installed, thereby reducing range and potentially leading to overcapacity in production.
- Conclusion: Policymakers are hesitant to act, fearing that any change could have broader negative consequences.
4. The Root Causes of Excessive Weight
The increase in NEV weight is a combination of technical limitations and policy-induced issues:
- Technical Barriers: Battery energy density is much lower than that of gasoline (about 1/40 to 1/80 of gasoline). Even with efficient motors, more batteries are needed to achieve the same range, leading to increased vehicle weight.
- Policy Legacy: Past industrial policies aimed at accelerating NEV adoption have resulted in an oversized market. With over 40 million NEVs in use and massive production capacity, any policy change would be complex.
5. Beyond Financial Costs: Safety Concerns
Excessive weight also poses serious safety risks:
- Road Infrastructure: If NEVs account for 50% of the vehicle fleet and their average weight exceeds 2 tons, roads may become overloaded, leading to potential collapses and damage.
- User Safety: Heavier vehicles have faster tire wear and greater strain on braking systems, increasing the risk of accidents. Some larger NEV models (7-seater/9-seater) require a higher driving license class, but many drivers with lower licenses are operating them, posing additional risks.
- Increased Maintenance Costs: Upgrading tires and braking systems is more expensive, further increasing vehicle ownership costs.
In Conclusion
The problem of excessive weight in NEVs is both technical and policy-driven. Past industrial policies have exacerbated a small issue into a complex dilemma that requires careful reflection and adjustment.