Summary of Key Points
This year, many regions in the Northern Hemisphere have experienced unprecedentedly high temperatures at an earlier time, due to the combined effects of global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation. The imbalance in Earth's energy distribution is accelerating faster than expected, suggesting that future climates may become even hotter (there is an 86% chance that a year between 2026 and 2030 will be warmer than 2024). Artificial intelligence (AI) can assist in climate prediction and mitigation through data compression, and China has already demonstrated leadership in the application of AI for climate analysis.
Detailed Explanation
#### 1. Why are the high temperatures coming so early this year?
The early onset of hot weather in the Northern Hemisphere is mainly due to two factors:
- Global warming is the underlying cause: Almost every part of the Earth is getting warmer, which intensifies the water cycle—water evaporates from the surface, turns into rain, and then falls back down. The higher the temperature, the more active this cycle becomes, leading to more extreme weather patterns.
- Disrupted atmospheric circulation: For example, monsoons may arrive earlier or later, or they might even disappear (Japan discussed the possibility of monsoons disappearing last year). The climate differences between cities are largely related to these changes. For instance, a slight shift in the wet areas of the Sahel region in Africa could suddenly make the arid areas more humid, resulting in extreme climate fluctuations.
#### 2. What is the imbalance in Earth's heat budget, and why is it concerning?
You can think of the Earth as a “heat savings account”: The energy from the sun is the income, and the heat radiated into space is the expenditure. Normally, these two should be balanced. However, due to excessive greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) and decreased aerosol emissions, the Earth’s “income” far exceeds its “expenditure,” leading to an accumulation of heat. What’s more alarming is that the rate of this imbalance is twice what scientists expected. This may be related to the Earth becoming “darker”—cloud patterns have changed, reflecting less sunlight and absorbing more heat. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has for the first time identified this imbalance as a key indicator because it directly reflects the accelerating pace of global warming.
#### 3. Will future climates get worse?
The answer is likely yes:
- 2024 was already the hottest year on record, 1.55°C warmer than before industrialization.
- The WMO predicts that there is an 86% chance that a year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024.
- The El Niño phenomenon could occur by the end of 2026, becoming more pronounced in 2027-2028, which would further raise global temperatures.
#### 4. Can AI help us address climate issues?
AI is not a panacea, but it can complement traditional research methods:
- Advantage in data compression: AI can process large amounts of climate data quickly to identify patterns (such as past climate trends), although it can only work with data that has been trained for it and cannot generate new knowledge on its own.
- Involving the public: AI can be used to create visual tools that help people understand future climate changes (e.g., how much sea levels will rise or how much hotter their hometowns might become), encouraging them to take small actions, such as saving electricity.
#### 5. What has China done in using AI for climate management?
China is at the forefront in this area:
- Making AI tools accessible: Chinese companies are leading in making AI tools available to a wider range of users for climate research.
- Promoting public participation: China is collaborating with international partners to develop information systems that allow the public to see future climate changes, thereby motivating them to contribute to climate mitigation efforts.
- Future challenges: To fully leverage AI, we need access to massive computing resources, standardized training data, a combination of scientific research and practical applications, and improved Earth monitoring capabilities.
In summary, climate issues are becoming increasingly urgent, but AI offers new tools to help us address them. With global collaboration, we can find solutions.