Summary of Key Points
The latest report from the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the likelihood of an El Niño phenomenon in the next two years is extremely high: 80% between June and August 2026, and 90% by November. It could even develop into a “super El Niño.” This would exacerbate the problems caused by a already warming planet, leading to more extreme heatwaves, diseases, food crises, and water shortages, making it particularly difficult for vulnerable communities to cope. Currently, there are abnormally warm currents hundreds of meters deep in the Pacific Ocean (with local water temperatures exceeding the average by 6°C), indicating that sea surface temperatures are about to rise. Meanwhile, the United States is already experiencing extreme weather events (wildfires in California, flash floods in the Midwest, and heatwaves in the Northeast), although the exact intensity and peak of the El Niño remain uncertain.
Detailed Analysis
#### 1. How likely is an El Niño? The timeline is clear
The WMO’s timeline is very precise: the probability of an El Niño occurring this summer (June to August 2026) is 80%, and it will rise to 90% by November—almost certain. Multiple meteorological agencies predict that this could be a “super El Niño,” with greater intensity and a wider impact than usual. The El Niño in 2023 made 2024 the hottest year on record, suggesting the potential severity of this event.
#### 2. Why might this El Niño be different?
The key evidence for this warning lies beneath the sea surface: Satellite and buoy data show a massive warm current moving slowly eastward in the Pacific Ocean, several hundred meters deep, with some areas having water temperatures more than 6°C above average. This temperature is comparable to that of the strongest El Niño events in history. It’s as if there’s an enormous “underwater heater” releasing heat into the ocean, which will gradually rise to the surface, disrupting global climate patterns—making certain regions hotter and others prone to heavier rainfall.
#### 3. What problems will El Niño bring?
The most immediate effects of El Niño are related to increased heat: Extreme heatwaves will become more frequent, leading to an increase in heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke and cardiovascular diseases. More seriously, it will disrupt global rainfall patterns, causing severe droughts in some areas (e.g., Southeast Asia) and floods in others (e.g., South America), which will impact food production (e.g., reduced yields of rice and corn) and water supply. Vulnerable communities, such as those in the Sahel region of Africa and small island nations in Southeast Asia, will be pushed to their limits.
#### 4. Has the U.S. already suffered from the effects? Extreme weather is a warning
Although El Niño has not fully formed, the United States is already experiencing extreme weather:
- Wildfires in California: The “Sandy Fire” in the Simi Valley burned for over a day and was only 5% contained as of June 2nd; residents are still being evacuated.
- Flash floods in the Midwest: Missouri and Illinois have experienced thunderstorms and flash floods, with 7 million people (including those in Kansas City and St. Louis) under flood warnings, and more severe weather is expected in the coming days.
- Heatwaves in the Northeast: Some areas are already experiencing extreme heat, affecting people’s lives.
These events are precursors to the El Niño and indicate that the global climate system is already very fragile.
#### 5. Are there any uncertainties?
Although the warnings are severe, the WMO emphasizes that it is still uncertain whether this El Niño will be of moderate or strong intensity. Different climate models predict varying outcomes; some predict a strong event, while others are less optimistic. The final determination can only be made once sea surface temperatures continue to rise and the warm currents fully affect the climate system. Therefore, it’s important to stay vigilant but not panic. The key is to prepare in advance (e.g., stocking up on water, reinforcing homes, and paying attention to weather forecasts).
In Conclusion
El Niño is not a distant threat; it will directly impact our lives (e.g., making summers hotter and potentially increasing food prices). It’s time to take this seriously—preparation is always better than reacting in a crisis.