Summary of Key Points
Japan is experiencing the largest decline in population in a century, with a reduction of 3.097 million people over five years, and the annual average rate of decrease has accelerated from 0.15% to 0.5%. This trend is observed across all regions except Tokyo and Okinawa; even the areas surrounding the capital region (Saitama and Chiba) have seen their populations decline for the first time. The family structure is changing, with an increasing number of elderly people living alone, leading to historically low average household sizes. While local governments claim they are addressing the population issue, they have significantly increased the costs of foreign visas, which runs counter to the need to attract labor.
#### 1. Rapid Population Decline
The latest census data is truly alarming: the total population will be 123 million in 2025, a decrease of 3.097 million from 2020, representing a 2.5% drop—the largest decline on record. The speed of this decline is even more concerning, having risen from an annual average of 0.15% to 0.5%, which means nearly 600,000 people are losing their lives each year. Compared to the peak population of 128 million in 2010, Japan has lost 5 million people in just 15 years, a loss equivalent to the population of a medium-sized city. The main reasons for this rapid decline are a higher elderly population and fewer births: young people are reluctant to have children, and the mortality rate among the elderly is higher than the birth rate, leading to what is referred to as an aging and declining birth trend.
#### 2. Even the Capital Region Cannot Retain Its Population
The perception that areas around Tokyo are attractive to young people has been challenged by these data: populations in all regions except Tokyo and Okinawa have decreased. For example, Akita Prefecture has seen a 8.1% decline (from 960,000 to 880,000 people), and experts predict that its population could fall below 600,000 by 2050. More surprisingly, Saitama and Chiba Prefectures in the capital region have also experienced population declines for the first time since statistics began in 1920. Even manufacturing hubs such as Yokohama (home to Nissan and Mitsubishi) are seeing population reductions, indicating that young people no longer find these areas appealing.
#### 3. An Increasing Number of Elderly People Living Alone
Despite the overall population decline, the number of households has increased by 2.3% to 57.12 million. This is due to an increase in "small families," with a particular trend of elderly people living alone. There are now 8.553 million households with elderly individuals aged 65 and above, accounting for 15% of all households—almost one in seven households consists of an elderly person living alone. This trend is expected to worsen by 2050, with the number of such households possibly reaching 10.84 million, nearly half of all households. The average household size has dropped to 2.15 people, which means most households consist of just two people (e.g., a couple) and do not even have enough children to support them. This is a reflection of the aging population: currently, 29.4% of Japan's population is over 65 years old, and this figure is expected to rise to 37.1% by 2050, meaning that one in every three people will be elderly, placing increasing pressure on pension systems.
#### 4. Government Actions That Contradict Population Goals
Prime Minister Kōichi Toshihiko has labeled the population decline as the "number one problem," but his actions are confusing. The minister responsible for population issues also handles multiple responsibilities, including territorial disputes and food safety, leaving little time to focus on this issue. Even more absurdly, during a period of labor shortage, the government increased the cost of renewing foreign visas significantly—the fee for permanent residency permits has risen from 10,000 yen (about $428) to 200,000 yen (about $8,550), a 19-fold increase! Japan currently has 4 million foreigners, most working in industries such as manufacturing, hospitality, and IT, which are in need of labor. Raising these fees is essentially driving away potential workers. While other countries are competing to attract talent, Japan is doing the opposite, which could undermine its future economic competitiveness.
Conclusion
Japan's population problem has shifted from a gradual decline to a rapid one, affecting various aspects of society, including regions, families, and industries. If the government does not take effective measures (such as attracting young people and retaining foreign residents), the consequences will be even more severe: local areas may face a shortage of population, industries will struggle with labor shortages, and pension systems will be overwhelmed. These data serve as a wake-up call for Japan, but whether the government can address these issues effectively depends on whether its policies can keep up with the changing realities.