第一财经

English headline: Electricity Demand Soars in Guangdong: New Air Conditioning Load Exceeds the Total Power Output of Two Three Gorges Dams

原文:热到用电“狂飙”,广东新增空调用电负荷超两座三峡电站满发

Summary of Key Points

This year, summer arrived in South China more than 20 days earlier than usual. The persistent high temperatures have led to a surge in air conditioning electricity consumption, causing the power demand of the Southern Power Grid to exceed last year's peak 45 days ahead of schedule (reaching a maximum of 275 million kilowatts). The additional air conditioning load in Guangdong alone is equivalent to the combined output of two Three Gorges hydroelectric power stations. The region and the five provinces have set new electricity consumption records 24 times so far. High temperatures are expected to continue, and the Southern Power Grid has taken multiple measures, including adding new renewable energy capacity, deploying energy storage systems, and expanding offshore wind power, to ensure a stable supply of electricity.

Detailed Analysis

#### 1. Air Conditioning Consumption as the Main Driver of Peak Demand

This year's high temperatures in South China have been particularly intense, with air conditioning becoming the major consumer of electricity. Data shows that air conditioning accounts for over 30% of the total power demand in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan—meaning more than three out of every ten kilowatt-hours of electricity consumed are used by air conditioners. A more tangible example is that for every 1°C increase in temperature, the overall electricity demand in the region increases by 3%-5%. This round of high temperatures has added approximately 60 million kilowatts of additional load due to air conditioning, with Guangdong accounting for 47 million of this increase. For reference, the total installed capacity of the world's largest Three Gorges hydroelectric power station is only 22.5 million kilowatts, meaning the additional load in Guangdong alone exceeds the combined output of two Three Gorges stations (22.5 million × 2 = 45 million kilowatts), which is equivalent to the power output of nearly 50 large nuclear power plants.

#### 2. Repeated Record-Breaking Power Demands

Under the high temperatures, the power demand of the Southern Power Grid has skyrocketed, with several record-breaking peaks in late May, reaching a maximum of 275 million kilowatts—45 days earlier than last year's peak. Since the beginning of the year, the southern region (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan) and the five provinces have set new electricity consumption records 24 times. Guangdong has led the way, exceeding the 170 million kilowatt mark and becoming the province with the highest electricity demand in the country. Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan have also reached new levels, with demands exceeding 40 million, 30 million, and 9 million kilowatts respectively—indicating a significant increase in power consumption for each province.

#### 3. High Temperatures Persist, and the Challenge of Maintaining Supply Remains

The high temperatures are not expected to subside soon. On June 1st, the Southern Power Grid stated that the heatwave in Guangdong will continue, posing a significant supply challenge. Meteorological forecasts suggest that although the subtropical high pressure system (the main cause of the high temperatures) will weaken over the next three days, Guangdong will still be under its influence, meaning air conditioning demand will not decrease, and the power grid will need to maintain its capacity.

#### 4. The Power Grid Is Well-Prepared with Multiple Measures

To cope with this summer's peak electricity demand, the Southern Power Grid has taken several proactive steps:

  • New Capacity Addition: Approximately 67 million kilowatts of new generating capacity were added this summer, with 70% coming from renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power.
  • Energy Storage: The addition of nearly 9 million kilowatts of new energy storage systems (e.g., battery storage) allows for the storage of excess electricity to be released during peak times.
  • Offshore Wind Power: The upgraded Yangjiang Sanshan Island offshore wind power project in Guangdong will provide an additional 2 million kilowatts of power.
  • Backup Measures: Other measures, such as gas-fired power generation and optimized power market management, ensure a sufficient and flexible electricity supply.

In summary, this peak in electricity demand is due to the earlier arrival of summer and the surge in air conditioning usage. However, the power grid has made adequate preparations, so consumers should not worry too much about power outages. Despite the increased consumption during the summer, it's important to remember to conserve electricity.