Summary of Key Points
In 2026, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination was 12.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 compared to the previous year. Although this number corresponds to an increase in the birth rate from 18 years ago (in 2008), the overall number of applicants has still declined. The main reasons include changes in the high school enrollment structure, a reduction in the number of students repeating their studies, and a diminishing belief in the value of academic qualifications. This is a short-term fluctuation; however, the number of applicants is expected to continue to rise over the next eight years, reaching a peak in 2034. Colleges and universities need to reform their curricula and training programs in advance to meet societal demands.
Detailed Analysis
#### 1. An Increase in the Age-Appropriate Population, Yet a Decline in Applicants: The Problem Lies in the “Enrollment Structure”
The candidates taking the 2026 college entrance examination were born in 2008 (a total of 10.68 million, more than in the previous two years), indicating an increase in the age-eligible population. Nevertheless, the number of applicants has decreased. The key factor lies in the high school enrollment structure from three years ago: In 2023, the number of students enrolled in general high schools increased by 200,000, while the number enrolled in vocational schools decreased by 300,000, resulting in a net decrease of 100,000 in total enrollments.
(Note: The National Bureau of Statistics included technical schools within the statistics for vocational education in 2023, which may have led to an apparent increase in numbers. However, the actual number of vocational school students eligible for the college entrance examination has decreased, thereby lowering the base of eligible candidates.)
#### 2. A Reduction in the Number of Repeaters: Changes in Examination Questions and Rising Tuition Fees Deter People from Repeating
The number of repeaters has decreased in several provinces and cities (for example, by 40,000 in a southern province, accounting for one-third of the previous years' total). There are two main reasons for this:
- Reforms in Examination Questions: Since 2022, the college entrance examination questions have become more open and flexible, reducing the reliance on rote memorization and mechanical practice. Students who rely on exam preparation techniques face greater risks if they repeat their studies and are hesitant to try again.
- Rising Costs of Repeating: Public schools no longer allow repeaters, forcing them to attend private schools with higher tuition fees, which many families cannot afford, leading them to give up on repeating.
#### 3. Vocational School Students No Longer See a Need to Go to College: The Belief in Academic Qualifications is Declining
The college entrance examination applicants are divided into two categories: those from general high schools (taking the exam in June) and those from vocational schools (taking a separate exam for vocational education). More vocational school students are now choosing to enter the workforce directly:
- Practicality of Vocational Education: Vocational training programs are more closely aligned with industry needs, providing better employment prospects.
- Excessive Number of College Graduates: The gross enrollment rate in higher education reached 60.8% in 2024 (60% of 18-year-olds are in college), meaning there is an oversupply of graduates. Many vocational school students realize that a college degree may not guarantee a good job, so they prefer to start working and pursue further education through continuing courses later on—this reflects societal progress.
#### 4. Short-Term Decline is a Temporary Fluctuation; Long-Term Trends Point to an Increase: Colleges Need to Prepare in Advance
This decline is a normal fluctuation, and the number of applicants is expected to rise over the next eight years, reaching a peak in 2034. However, colleges must be cautious:
The number of college graduates continues to increase annually (12.7 million in 2026, with over 13 million international students). If colleges do not reform their programs to better meet societal needs, they will face the dual challenges of a lack of applicants and job opportunities when the pool of potential students truly shrinks in the future.
Conclusion
The decline in the number of college entrance examination applicants is temporary, but the underlying trends—such as a more rational approach to academic qualifications and the rise of vocational education—are worth paying attention to. Colleges should seize this opportunity to adjust their direction to avoid being marginalized by the market in the future. For individuals, academic qualifications are no longer the only path forward; it is more important to choose a development path that suits their own interests and abilities.