Summary of Key Points
In May, the sales performance of new entrants in the automotive industry fell short of expectations, leading to a significant reshuffle in market rankings: ZeroRun continued to lead, but faces substantial pressure to meet its annual sales target of one million units; HarmonyOS Auto climbed back to second place, while NIO solidified its luxury positioning; most brands struggled with monthly sales below 40,000 units (a situation described as being "locked in by the '智子' barrier"); Li Auto and Xpeng encountered difficulties in sales; Xiaomi Automobile balanced sales and profits through pricing strategies; the pace of industry consolidation is accelerating, and all brands must be vigilant against potential crises.
I. ZeroRun: Leading in Sales but Facing Challenges to Meet the 1 Million Unit Target
ZeroRun sold 81,500 units in May, more than twice that of other new entrants, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. Its scale gives it a stable foundation. However, the challenges are evident: it has only achieved 250,000 units (one-quarter of its target) in the first five months of the year, putting significant pressure on the company. As a result, ZeroRun quickly announced updates to its C10, C11, and C16 models in hopes of boosting sales. The biggest question on everyone's mind is when it will be able to reach monthly sales of 100,000 units.
II. HarmonyOS Auto + NIO: Consolidating a Strong Position in the Mid-to-High-End Market
- HarmonyOS Auto: Finally back in second place with monthly sales exceeding 40,000 units, a 40% increase from the previous month, indicating that its marketing efforts have paid off. Models like the Qijie and Xiangjie are also seeing growth.
- NIO: Li Bin can now proudly claim his brand's luxury positioning—with an average transaction price of 390,000 yuan in the first quarter (the highest among new entrants), and NIO ranked third in sales for the month. The ES8 sold 110,000 units within 245 days of its launch, helping to boost both sales and establish the brand's reputation. However, there are issues: the LeDao series' sales performance is below expectations, and there are significant differences between models, which tests Li Bin's decision-making. The underlying trend suggests that with rising oil prices, consumers are increasingly turning to new energy vehicles, indicating that these cars not only save fuel but also hold a strong position in the high-end market.
III. Most New Entrants Struggling Below 40,000 Units (Locked in by the "智子 Barrier")
Similar to how the "智子" in "The Three-Body Problem" locks advanced technology, most new entrants are stuck with monthly sales below 40,000 units. This figure has become a critical threshold:
- Geely Karma: New models (the 9th and 8th series) contributed to a year-on-year increase of 97%, but only an 8% increase month-on-month, failing to significantly boost overall sales. Releasing new models is essential, but the longevity of their popularity is uncertain.
- Li Auto: The only brand with declining sales both month-on-month and year-on-year. Its all-electric i6 model has sold over 20,000 units for three consecutive months, marking a transition from range-extended to all-electric vehicles, but this came at the cost of losing its lead in sales and dominance in the range-extended SUV segment. The L9 model, with improvements such as self-developed chips and an active chassis, is being launched to boost sales; the L8 model will also receive updates in June.
- Xpeng: Sales stopped declining month-on-month but still decreased year-on-year. The success of the MONA model was not followed by other successful models, leading to a sales crisis. The new GX model was released at a price 50,000 yuan lower than expected (starting at 269,800 yuan), indicating some urgency. Xpeng is hoping the new SUV will help, but it needs to be launched as soon as possible.
- Shenlan and Aion: Backed by state-owned enterprises, their sales have kept pace with the market (with minimal month-on-month growth and a 20% year-on-year increase), which is considered a passing grade, but they have not made significant breakthroughs.
IV. Xiaomi Automobile: Balancing Sales and Profit through Pricing Strategies
Xiaomi's sales figures for May were fluctuating (the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported 36,000 units sold, though the accuracy of this figure is uncertain). The company has expanded its YU7 product line, releasing the GT version that set a speed record on the Nurburgring and the standard version at a reduced price of 233,500 yuan to boost sales. By raising the average selling price per vehicle, Xiaomi is competing effectively in the market. Lei Jun emphasized during a press conference that building a car business takes ten years and that short-term gains are not enough, whether comparing with Tesla or focusing on monthly sales figures.
V. Accelerating Industry Consolidation: No Brand Can Rest Easy
Li Bin stated at the Greater Bay Area Auto Show that the pace of industry consolidation is accelerating, and no brand, regardless of its performance, can afford to be complacent. ZeroRun faces pressure to meet its targets, Li Auto has lost its edge, Xpeng lacks new models, and Xiaomi is still exploring its path in the automotive sector. Building a car business indeed takes time, but even maintaining stable monthly sales for just one month is a challenge, let alone sustaining long-term success.
In summary: May's sales data highlight the strengths of leading brands, the struggles of mid-tier players, and the harsh realities of the industry. Brands must either rise to the top or face elimination; there is no middle ground. For consumers looking to buy cars, options like ZeroRun (value for money), HarmonyOS Auto (balance between quality and price), and NIO (luxury) are worth considering, but it's also important to assess the long-term stability of these brands. For the industry as a whole, competing on product quality, pricing, and long-term strategy is crucial for survival.