Summary of Key Points
This article focuses on the issue of rural hollowing out in China: Currently, most villages are left only with elderly residents, leading to a situation where there is a "triple emptiness" in terms of population, infrastructure, and land. Scholars predict that more than 60% of villages will disappear within the next few decades, with only four types of villages being able to survive. The article also uses the decline of Japanese villages as a case study to analyze the lessons learned and viable strategies for addressing this issue. It concludes by suggesting that it is not necessary to try to preserve every village; instead, the focus should be on preserving the symbols of nostalgia.
I. Rural Hollowing Out: Not Only Uninhabited, but Also Lacking Infrastructure and Land
When you visit rural areas nowadays, you mostly find only elderly people in their sixties or seventies. Middle-aged individuals have moved to county towns to buy houses, and young people have left to seek opportunities elsewhere, with little chance of returning. The data is even more alarming: 91% of villages across the country are hollowed out, and nearly half of them are severely depopulated; over the past 40 years, 1.5 million natural villages have disappeared, with nearly 100 villages disappearing from maps each day.
In the past, people who went to work in cities would still maintain a connection to their hometowns, but now entire families move to cities, completely severing that link. This phenomenon is characterized by a "triple emptiness":
- Population emptiness: There are no children or young adults; only the elderly remain.
- Infrastructure emptiness: Rural schools have closed, village doctors have left, and markets have become deserted after the consolidation of towns.
- Land emptiness: Farmland in remote areas lies fallow, and rural paths are overgrown with weeds.
II. Will Most Villages Disappear in the Future? Only Four Types Will Survive
Scholars in the field are highly consistent in their predictions:
- Professor Zhou Tianyong from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics predicts that by 2050, only about 490,000 natural villages will remain nationwide, with more than 60% of existing villages being merged or disappearing.
- Director Wei Houkai of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates that over 74,000 administrative villages will be integrated and abolished between 2030 and 2035, leaving many place names as mere records on paper.
Only four types of villages are likely to survive:
1. Villages integrated with urban areas: Those located near cities and able to meet the needs of urban expansion.
2. Town center villages: These are the core of towns and have complete infrastructure.
3. Villages with unique resources: Those with attractive scenery, special products, or cultural traditions.
4. Large-scale agricultural villages: Suitable for modern farming methods.
The remaining remote villages without resources will gradually disappear as their elderly residents pass away. We may be the last generation to see these traditional rural communities in their entirety and could also be among the first to experience a situation where there are no villages to return to.
III. Lessons from Japan's Rural Decline: Money and Industrial Development Were Ineffective
In the 20 years after World War II, 30 million people moved to cities like Tokyo and Osaka, leading to a rapid depopulation of rural areas. Today, half of Japan's villages are in decline; the elderly population in mountainous areas exceeds 70%, and on average, farmers are over 67 years old. Ten percent of the farmland remains unused, and ancient villages disappear each year. Japan's experience offers two key lessons:
- Money and subsidies were ineffective: Villages without industries could not retain their populations; instead, they became dependent on subsidies, leading to further emptiness.
- Industrial development was counterproductive: Random industrial projects damaged the environment, and few returned-to-rural programs were successful, accelerating village decline.
- Cash-based relocation subsidies did not work: Without employment opportunities and proper infrastructure, most young people who settled in rural areas eventually moved back to cities.
IV. There's No Need to Preserve Every Village, but We Can Preserve Nostalgia
The disappearance of villages is an inevitable consequence of urbanization. While it is unrealistic to try to preserve every village, we can take three steps to retain a sense of nostalgia:
1. Optimize distribution: Consolidate remote, hollowed-out villages and concentrate resources on strengthening central towns.
2. Develop local industries: Utilize local resources for distinctive farming and tourism to generate income in the surviving villages.
3. Preserve cultural heritage: Document ancient buildings, traditions, and village histories so that even if the physical villages disappear, nostalgia can be preserved.
In twenty or thirty years, the once picturesque rural landscapes may be deserted, but at least we can ensure that nostalgia does not become a void.
This article does not doom rural areas; rather, it objectively identifies trends. Instead of lamenting the loss of villages, we should consider how to create places for nostalgia to thrive. After all, the significance of rural areas goes beyond just being places to live; they are also a source of our culture and emotions.