Core Summary
SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion in a public offering, with an expected market value of over $1.5 trillion. However, there are significant underlying issues across its three main businesses: launch services, Starlink, and AI. The company was initially founded with the goal of enabling Mars colonization, but its primary revenue-generating business, launch services, is now largely supported by its secondary business, Starlink. Starlink is the only profitable venture, yet it faces conflicts between its intended purpose and commercial viability. The AI division is hemorrhaging funds, while the concept of using space for computing power remains purely speculative. SpaceX has suffered substantial losses, with a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026, nearly matching the annual figure.
Detailed Analysis
#### Business Disalignment: Secondary Businesses Becoming the Mainstay, While the Core Business Drags Down
SpaceX's original vision was to facilitate Mars colonization through rocket and spacecraft development. However, the current situation is as follows:
- Starlink as the Revenue Driver: In 2025, Starlink accounted for 61% of SpaceX’s total revenue, exceeding the combined income from launch services (21.9%) and AI (17.1%).
- Self-Sustaining Launch Business: Seventy percent of SpaceX’s launches involve deploying its own Starlink satellites, with only external revenues (such as those from NASA) being disclosed. This makes the revenue from launch services appear smaller than they actually are.
- Deviation from the Original Vision: Although Starlink generates cash flow, it has little to do with the goal of Mars colonization, creating a disconnect between business objectives and the company’s founding mission.
#### Profit Imbalance: Starlink Supports the Company, While AI and Launch Operations Lose Money Heavily
Starlink is the sole profitable division for SpaceX, but the other two divisions are incurring massive losses:
- Stable Profits for Starlink: In 2025, Starlink made a profit of $4.42 billion (with a margin of 38.8%), and $1.19 billion in the first quarter of 2026 (36.5%).
- Sudden Losses in Launch Operations: The launch business suffered losses of $657 million in 2025 and $662 million in the first quarter of 2026, due to significant investments in Starlink satellite development.
- Unlimited Spending in AI: The AI division lost $6.355 billion in 2025 (198.5%) and $2.47 billion in the first quarter of 2026. All of Starlink’s profits are being absorbed by these losses, leading to overall financial distress.
#### Launch Business: Burdened by Strategic Risks and Fixed-Price Contracts
NASA chose SpaceX over Boeing due to the latter’s delays and cost overruns with its SLS rocket. However, the contract terms place significant risks on SpaceX:
- Fixed-Price Contracts vs. Cost-Plus Models: While Boeing receives a fee based on the actual costs incurred by NASA, SpaceX is bound by a fixed price agreement, meaning it must cover any additional expenses.
- National Strategic Risks: The return to the moon is a national initiative with many uncertainties (e.g., changes in policy due to new administrations), which private companies like SpaceX cannot easily handle.
- Interdependent Relationships: Elon Musk relies on NASA for funding to develop Starlink, while NASA supports SpaceX’s financial stability by providing guaranteed revenue and free landing sites. However, this relationship is not entirely legitimate, creating potential policy risks that could lead to funding cuts in the future.
#### Starlink’s Ambiguous Positioning: Useful but Unprofitable in Certain Regions
The commercial value of Starlink is contradictory due to its technical limitations:
- Profitability in Remote Areas: Starlink is effective in remote and maritime locations, but these areas have low consumer demand and limited economic potential.
- Ineffective in Urban Areas: In densely populated cities like Beijing, with millions of users, the available bandwidth per person is minimal (about 1 Mbps), and it is often obstructed by buildings and weather conditions.
- Contradictory Claims from Musk: He has claimed that Starlink cannot compete with traditional cellular networks but also promised to launch tens of thousands of additional satellites to replace telecom operators.
- Short Lifespan of Satellites: Starlink satellites have a lifespan of only 5 years, requiring constant replacement and resulting in ongoing costs.
#### AI Division: A Fantasy of Space Computing Power
The concept of using space for computing power is still in the early stages:
- Lack of Practical Solutions: There are no concrete plans or designs for powering satellite-based computing clusters with solar energy.
- Recurrent Losses: Current revenue comes from renting out computing resources to companies like Anthropic (for $1.25 billion per month), but expenses far exceed this income.
- Competitive Disadvantages: Even if space-based computing becomes a reality, initial costs will likely be higher than those of terrestrial providers like Alibaba Cloud and AWS.
- Pressure from Public Offering: Regular financial reports will expose SpaceX’s ongoing losses in the AI division, which could negatively impact its stock price.
Conclusion
SpaceX has ambitious goals (Mars colonization, space internet, AI), but it faces numerous practical challenges: misaligned businesses, unbalanced profitability, strategic risks, and unrealistic technology prospects. The $750 billion in funding from the public offering may provide temporary relief, but unless these issues are resolved, the company’s future is highly uncertain. Investors should be cautious of the potential for promises that fail to materialize. (The analysis provided is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)