Summary of Key Points
Recent reports have claimed that there is an oversupply of 16 million delivery riders following the "delivery war," with as few as five riders competing for one order. However, this assertion suffers from confusion over data definitions and logical inaccuracies. The reality is as follows: **20 million represent the total number of registered riders (including those who are merely nominal or have multiple platform registrations), while only about 8 million are actually active riders. The industry requires more than 6 million riders to meet peak demand (not the 4 million estimated by a UBS study). With 8 million active riders, there is no significant oversupply; riders can freely switch to other industries, and the current lack of large-scale turnover indicates a relatively balanced supply and demand in the delivery sector. The increase in the number of riders is mainly due to overall employment challenges, rather than subsidies from the delivery wars. Moreover, demand for delivery services is on the rise, providing riders with a relatively stable job.
Detailed Analysis
1. "20 million riders" is an inflated figure: Registration does not equate to activity
The reported 20 million are registered riders, not necessarily those actually delivering orders. Just as someone who registers for TikTok but doesn't use it frequently is not considered an active user, the mobility of delivery riders is high—many may switch from delivering to working as servers the next day. Additionally, many riders register on multiple platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, leading to double-counting in the total.
According to data from Meituan and Alibaba, Meituan had an average of 3.36 million active riders per month last year, and Alibaba's flash shopping service had 2 million daily active users (which would translate to a higher monthly figure). Previously, the ratio of registered to active riders was roughly 4:1; therefore, the current 20 million registrations correspond to about 8 million active riders.
2. The claim of "only 4 million needed" is based on an idealized model
The claim that the industry needs only 4 million riders comes from a UBS model from 2026, which assumes perfect conditions: all riders are highly skilled, orders are evenly distributed, and there are no disruptions due to weather or peak times. In reality, demand surges at noon, fewer riders are available on rainy days, and many leave for home during the Spring Festival. These factors require additional riders to ensure timely delivery. To maintain service quality, the industry ideally needs more than 6 million riders. With 8 million active riders, there is only a 200,000 increase from the ideal number, far from the exaggerated figure of 16 million.
3. Riders will "vote with their feet": No shortage of orders means they won't switch industries
The entry barrier for delivery riders is low, and they can easily switch to other jobs such as couriers or servers if needed. If there were really only five riders competing for one order and no profit to be made, riders would leave the industry. However, there has been no significant outflow of riders, suggesting that delivery offers decent income and opportunities compared to other low-wage jobs.
4. The increase in riders is due to employment pressures
The rise in the number of riders is not primarily driven by subsidies from delivery wars but by broader employment trends. Slowing urbanization and the contraction of the real estate industry have left many workers in other sectors without jobs, leading them to take up delivery roles. Thus, the increase in registrations reflects overall employment challenges, with the impact of the delivery wars being overstated.
5. Growing demand for delivery services ensures job stability
People use delivery services not only for food but also for groceries, medication, and daily necessities, indicating a continuous rise in consumer demand. The delivery industry has significant potential for growth, and the demand for riders is likely to increase over the long term. This means that the job of a delivery rider is relatively stable.
Conclusion
The notion of an oversupply of 16 million riders is misleading, as it confuses the difference between registered and active riders and ignores the actual industry needs and broader employment context. While there is competition in the delivery sector, there is no severe oversupply, and demand remains stable. For many people, becoming a delivery rider is a reasonable choice amid broader employment pressures.