Summary of Key Points
This year, the number of applicants for the national college entrance examination (Gaokao) was 12.9 million, which is 3.18 million fewer than in previous years. This article discusses three main issues: Where have these 3.18 million people gone? Has the decrease in the number of applicants made the Gaokao competition easier? Why has the anxiety among candidates and parents increased instead? Essentially, it explores the chain reactions involving population, education, and employment through changes in the number of Gaokao applicants.
I. Where Have the 3.18 Million People Gone? – Four Main Destinations
The most straightforward reasons are not that children have suddenly disappeared, but rather a combination of decreased birth rates and diversified educational choices:
1. Fewer births: The current Gaokao candidates were mainly born between 2005 and 2007. During those years, China's birth rate declined from over 16 million to around 15 million, resulting in a smaller base number of applicants for the Gaokao.
2. Shift to vocational education: The government encourages a balance between general and vocational education (about half of junior high school graduates attend general high schools, while the other half attend vocational schools), so many students skip the Gaokao altogether.
3. Studying abroad to avoid the Gaokao: Families with financial resources send their children abroad for schooling, directly applying to universities overseas and avoiding the domestic competition.
4. Decreased number of repeat applicants: Public schools no longer admit repeat students, and private tutoring classes are expensive. Many students who did not perform well in the exams choose to attend junior colleges or enter the workforce, further reducing the Gaokao applicant pool.
II. Has the Decrease in Applicants Made the Competition Easier? – The Competition for Top Schools Remains Intense
Many people think that fewer applicants means an easier exam, but this is a misconception:
1. The number of spots in top schools remains unchanged: Universities like 985/211 institutions have fixed annual enrollment numbers (e.g., Tsinghua and Peking University enroll over 3,000 students each year). Even with fewer total applicants, the competition for these prestigious schools remains fierce. For example, if 100,000 people applied last year and 80,000 this year, the ratio is still 80:1, making it as difficult as ever.
2. The remaining candidates are more focused: Those who continue to take the Gaokao are more determined to attend university, leading to a higher concentration of talented students and intensified score competition.
3. Admission rates do not equate to success at top schools: Although the overall admission rate may have increased, people are concerned about getting into top universities, not just any university. For instance, while the general undergraduate admission rate has risen, the admission rate for 985 schools remains around 1%, so anxiety remains focused on the elite institutions.
III. Why Has Anxiety Increased Instead of Decreased? – The Pressure Has Shifted from the Gaokao to the Future
The decrease in applicants has not reduced anxiety; instead, it has become more pronounced due to several factors:
1. Employment pressure affecting the Gaokao: With difficulty in finding jobs after graduation, parents and candidates are concerned about whether their children can secure good positions after attending university.
2. The ongoing competitive atmosphere: The pressure to excel through excessive practice, tutoring, and score comparisons persists. Students compete to get into better high schools and then universities.
3. Information overload: The widespread availability of exam scores and admission data on social media amplifies anxiety when parents compare their children's performance with others.
4. High expectations: Many families view the Gaokao as the sole path to a better future, believing that only top-tier universities can provide opportunities, so high expectations do not decrease with fewer applicants.
IV. What Long-Term Changes Underlie This? – The Chain Reaction of Population, Education, and Employment
The decline in Gaokao applicants is not an isolated event; it reflects several underlying trends:
1. Long-term demographic shifts: A decreasing birth rate means that the number of Gaokao candidates will likely continue to fall in the future. This poses challenges for universities, which may face difficulties if enrollment plans remain unchanged or if they reduce their enrollments.
2. Doubts about the value of vocational education: The government encourages vocational training, but if vocational programs do not offer good job prospects (low salaries, limited career paths), parents will still push their children to take the Gaokao, exacerbating competition.
3. Employment market trends: Employers increasingly value degrees from top universities, making ordinary qualifications less competitive and increasing anxiety among candidates.
4. Slow change in societal attitudes: Despite other options like studying abroad or starting businesses, the perception that a Gaokao degree from a prestigious university is the best path remains prevalent, leading to ongoing anxiety.
Conclusion
The decrease in Gaokao applicants is a reflection of broader issues related to population, education, and employment. Whether competition has eased depends on the goals of individual candidates. Whether anxiety has reduced depends on whether the future job market and education system can provide students with more stability and opportunities. For families, it is more important to focus on their children's interests and abilities, as the Gaokao is just one step in a longer journey.