Summary of Key Points
The flying car industry is transitioning from a conceptual phase to a stage of practical verification, with the capital market shifting its focus from technical specifications to more tangible indicators such as delivery, profitability, and airworthiness certification. Su Qingpeng, CEO of GaoYu Technology (a company incubated by Guangqi Automobile), believes that flying cars are currently in a similar position to new energy vehicles 10 years ago, but they are developing at a faster pace. He predicts that 2027 will mark the beginning of the commercialization of manned eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft), and by 2030, a sustainable business model will be established. However, the ramp-up in deliveries is slower than that of traditional automobiles due to challenges in modular production. Solid-state batteries are considered a necessary technology, with safety and range being prioritized over cost. Stricter regulations are seen as a positive development for the industry, as the new Civil Aviation Law will support the growth of the low-altitude economy.
1. The “New Energy Vehicle Moment” for Flying Cars: Now is Like 2014, but Faster
Su Qingpeng compares the development of flying cars to that of new energy vehicles, noting that the market for new energy vehicles only exploded after their share exceeded 7%. He suggests that flying cars are at a similar early stage, albeit with a more rapid trajectory. He predicts that by 2030, flying cars will have achieved a sustainable business model where they can be produced, sold, and generate profits.
2. Slow Delivery Progress Compared to Cars: Safety First – Getting the “Flying License”
Flying cars cannot be sold immediately after production; they must first pass airworthiness certification. Su Qingpeng explains that the slow progress in deliveries is due to several factors:
- Repeated Testing: Products need to be continuously refined to ensure they do not malfunction in flight.
- Process Verification: The strength of composite materials and the precision of assembly must be rigorously tested.
- Gradual Adoption of Automation: GaoYu Technology’s factories are currently focusing on modular and standardized production, with automated lines planned for later stages.
For example, GaoYu’s GOVY AirCab is expected to be launched in 2026 but will not start mass production until it obtains all necessary certifications in the first half of 2027, unlike traditional automobile manufacturing processes.
3. Solid-State Batteries as a “Must-Have”: Safety Over Cost
Flying cars have different battery requirements compared to new energy vehicles. While cost reduction is important for new energy vehicles, safety is paramount for flying cars, given the potential consequences of a battery fire in flight. Su Qingpeng believes that solid-state batteries offer the best solution for both long-range and high-safety performance.
4. 2027 as the Year of Commercialization: Capital Is Looking at Real Results
Both Su Qingpeng and UBS research reports predict that manned eVTOLs will be commercially available in 2027. The capital market has become more rational, focusing on practical aspects such as delivery plans, certification timelines, and profitability.
GaoYu Technology is also preparing for an IPO to secure funding and use secondary market capital to drive the commercialization of its products. Their proposed B-end prices are among the lowest in the industry, aiming to quickly enter the market.
5. Stricter Regulations: A Good Thing for the Industry
The tightening of regulations is seen as a positive development that will eliminate less competitive companies without the necessary technology. The new Civil Aviation Law, implemented in July, will establish a regulatory framework for low-altitude flights, providing greater clarity and stability for the industry.
In summary, flying cars are no longer just concepts; they are becoming a reality. Although there are still many challenges to overcome, the goal of achieving a sustainable business model by 2030 seems increasingly achievable.