Summary of Key Points
During this year's 618 shopping festival, the volume of delivery orders showed a staged increase (rather than a sudden surge), with some product categories experiencing more than a five-fold increase in orders. Consumption trends have shifted towards rationality and personalization, with less hoarding and a greater emphasis on quality and self-pleasure. Popular categories include fashion for young people, pet products, and maternal and infant goods, while traditional fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and books have seen declines. The return rate is expected to be lower than in previous years, although there will still be significant peaks. Delivery companies are preparing in advance with technology to handle these fluctuations in order volume.
1. Delivery Order Volume: Staged Increase, with Peaks in Mid-to-Late June
This year's 618 orders did not surge all at once but occurred in several smaller peaks:
- Timing: Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse saw a 25% increase on May 15 and a 120% year-on-year increase on the evening of May 26, marking the first two peaks; Jituo Cloud Warehouse's order volume increased from 2.2 million to 3 million orders (a 36% rise) between May 25-31. Experts predict that the highest peak will occur from June 19-21.
- Regions: Cities such as Suzhou, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Chengdu had the highest order volumes, with some warehouses processing over 2 million orders on average, with some even seeing a five-fold increase compared to normal times.
- Preparations: Delivery companies were well-prepared, using AI to predict order volumes and proactively hiring additional staff and vehicles (for example, Hangzhou added 10 extra personnel and signed emergency transportation agreements). Warehouses have upgraded their equipment with automated systems for weighing and sorting, ensuring they can handle increased demand without congestion.
2. Changing Consumption Patterns: Less Hoarding, More Personalized Needs
Consumers are no longer buying impulsively but are more focused on what is useful and enjoyable:
- Rationality: There has been less hoarding of daily necessities and traditional FMCG products, which sold poorly. This reduces the number of returns, as expected to be lower this year.
- Personalization: There is a greater demand for quality products and items that bring joy or fulfill personal interests, especially among younger consumers. This shift is partly due to more mature consumption habits and the convenience of instant retail services (such as Meituan and JD.com's home delivery options) that allow for on-demand purchases without the need for bulk stocking in advance.
3. Category Performance: Some Rise, Some Fall
While there are slight differences in data from different delivery companies, the overall trends are consistent:
- Categories That Increased: Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse: Fashion, outdoor apparel, maternal and infant skincare, pet food, and snacks; Jituo Cloud Warehouse: Personal care products, household items, and pet supplies.
- Categories That Declined: Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse: Daily necessities, traditional FMCG, basic clothing, mid-to-low-end cosmetics, books, and home textiles; Jituo Cloud Warehouse: 3C electronics and seasonal clothing.
- Reasons for the Changes: Consumers are no longer hoarding goods, preferring higher-quality products and more personalized items. Merchants have also adjusted their inventory strategies, shifting from bulk sales during promotions to steady sales throughout the year, which explains the decline in certain categories.
4. Return Situation: Peaks Expected, but with Improved Efficiency
Returns are a common occurrence during major shopping events, but there are some changes this year:
- Peak Times: Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse already experienced a small return peak on May 25, with the main peak expected to occur between June 4-5, potentially seeing 2-3 times the usual return volume (for example, the return volume at Guangzhou's clothing warehouse exceeded 100,000 orders).
- Return Rates: Jituo predicts a lower return rate due to more rational purchasing behavior. Expert Zhao Xiaomin also notes that fewer impulsive purchases mean fewer ineffective returns.
- Technological Help: Zhongtong uses automated sorting machines to process returns, increasing efficiency by three times; Jituo has set up dedicated return areas for quick processing and re-stocking, helping merchants minimize losses.
5. Expert Views: The Delivery Industry Performs Well, with Lower Risk of Surges
Logistics expert Zhao Xiaomin believes that:
- The delivery industry will perform well this year due to significant platform discounts and direct shipping from stock.
- There will be no sudden order surges because of optimized warehouse management (pre-stocking in closer-to-consumer locations) and staggered deliveries by merchants, distributing the workload.
- Lower return rates indicate more rational purchasing behavior, which is beneficial for both merchants and delivery companies.
In summary, this year's 618 shopping festival reflects a shift from simply buying more to buying smarter. Consumers are more discerning, and both merchants and delivery services are becoming more efficient. The industry is moving away from focusing on quantity towards emphasizing quality.