第一财经

How can banks reconstruct the new logic of cultural and creative credit products, considering that hit products are hard to replicate and the popularity of blind boxes (random product boxes) is short-lived?

原文:爆款难复制、盲盒花期短,银行如何重构文创信贷新逻辑?

Summary of Key Points

To address the loan challenges faced by cultural and creative enterprises, which often have limited assets, lack collateral, and struggle to replicate successful products, the Cultural and Creative Business Branch of Hangzhou Bank has moved away from traditional banking practices that focus on tangible assets such as factories and equipment. Instead, it has transformed into a “cultural industry data detective.” By analyzing industry data such as discount rates in the second-hand market for trendy toys, the popularity of blind box products, and public sentiment expressed in comments on drama trailers, the bank has developed a new risk assessment model that can measure the value of intellectual property (IP) assets. This model has successfully supported companies like Sanyue Shou (a trendy toy brand) and extended its financial services to emerging areas like AI-driven short-form dramas, adapting to the evolving nature of consumer behavior driven by emotions.

Detailed Explanation

1. The Old Problem: Why Are Loans So Difficult for Cultural and Creative Enterprises?

Traditional banks rely on tangible collateral such as factories, machinery, and land when granting loans. However, the core assets of cultural and creative enterprises—IPs, designs, and fan relationships—are intangible. Moreover, the success of these products is highly unpredictable; what’s popular today may become obsolete tomorrow. Banks are wary about lending money that they might not be able to recover, making it extremely difficult for such businesses to obtain loans.

2. The New Approach: Banks as “Data Detectives” Transform Intangible Assets into Measurable Values

The customer managers at the Cultural and Creative Business Branch of Hangzhou Bank no longer rely solely on financial reports; they delve into the intricacies of the cultural industry:

  • They monitor the second-hand market to identify trends (for example, a decrease in the price of a hidden item from 500 yuan to 200 yuan may indicate declining IP popularity).
  • They track social media trends, such as the number of views on TikTok videos and public sentiment in drama trailers.
  • They calculate key indicators to evaluate an IP’s value (number of fans, repurchase rate), a company’s cash flow (ability to generate sustained revenue), and its operational capabilities (whether it has multiple revenue streams).

By transforming these intangible factors into quantifiable data (such as fan engagement and discount rates for second-hand items), the bank can use this new model to assess a company’s loanworthiness, rather than relying on the possibility of a single hit product.

3. Case Studies: How Sanyue Shou and Guzi Achieved Loans

Sanyue Shou, a store that sells IP-related merchandise, was able to secure a loan to cover rent and expand its business. Guzi, a company that produces anime-themed merchandise, has high profits because it can sell official badges for 15–20 yuan at a cost of only 2–5 yuan, and limited-edition items for 60–200 yuan with a maximum cost of 10 yuan. Despite expenses for IP licensing and design, the company’s profit margins are substantial due to fan demand for its popular characters.

4. Expanding Services to New Industries

The bank’s services are expanding beyond trendy toys to include AI-driven short-form dramas. These projects can be launched quickly and require significant funding for writers, actors, and marketing (with costs ranging from 500,000 to 2 million yuan per episode), yet the return period is short. The bank has developed specialized loan programs and collaborated with venture capital firms to provide combined financing and investment support for more cultural and creative enterprises.

5. Future Challenges: Will Emotional Consumption Disappear? How Should Finance Adapt?

Some worry that the Z generation, once older, may stop buying trendy products. However, the bank’s research team believes that emotional consumption will continue to exist but in different forms, shifting from physical items to digital collectibles, virtual idols, and AI companions. Banks need to evolve their services accordingly, such as developing new collateral methods for digital assets or offering customized loans for AI-related projects.

In One Sentence

Banks are no longer using traditional approaches based on tangible assets to evaluate cultural and creative enterprises. Instead, they employ industry-specific methods to assess risk and direct funding towards truly valuable creative initiatives, adapting to the changing nature of consumer behavior driven by emotions.