Summary of Key Points
This news article highlights three significant trends: a continuous decline in the number of candidates taking the college entrance examination (Gaokao) and postgraduate entrance examination (Guankao) – this year, the Gaokao saw 450,000 fewer applicants, and the Guankao has seen a decrease of 1.31 million over three years – while the number of people taking the civil service examination has reached a record high, surpassing the number of postgraduate candidates for the first time. At the same time, the increase in the college population has led to what is known as "degree inflation," but top-tier universities (such as those designated as "Double First-Class") are expanding their enrollment in new engineering programs to adapt to these changes. Behind these trends lie multiple shifts in demographics, education, AI technology, and the job market, indicating that the old paradigm of "a good university equals a good job" is no longer valid.
1. Why is the interest in the civil service examination so high despite the decline in Gaokao and Guankao participation?
The decrease in Gaokao applicants is not due to a reduction in the eligible population (the number of potential candidates will only truly start to drop by 2034); rather, it is because fewer students are choosing to repeat their senior year of high school. Public schools no longer allow repeat students, and the new format of the Gaokao makes it less worthwhile to spend an extra year preparing for the exam (for example, graduating from a four-year university might be more profitable than repeating for another year). Additionally, more vocational school graduates are entering the workforce directly, as AI is impacting white-collar jobs, narrowing the employment advantages associated with a college degree. Therefore, starting work earlier can be more advantageous.
The same principle applies to the decline in Guankao participation: with degree inflation, a master's degree is no longer as highly sought after, and a three-year postgraduate program may not provide as many job opportunities as three years of work experience.
On the other hand, the surge in civil service interest reflects people's desire for stability. In an economic environment of uncertainty, the security and benefits associated with being a civil servant have made this profession increasingly attractive, leading to a doubling of the number of applicants and surpassing the number of postgraduate candidates for the first time.
2. With so many college students, why has the value of a degree decreased?
It has become much easier to attend college: last year, 13.35 million people took the Gaokao, and 10 million were admitted, with 80% of them going on to undergraduate programs. In contrast to the 1990s, only one in a hundred people could obtain an undergraduate degree; now, it's almost inevitable to meet at least one college graduate. Data shows that over 270 million people in China hold a university degree (an increase of 100 million in ten years), and eight cities have more than one million college graduates each (with Guangzhou having 1.78 million). Higher education has shifted from being an elite pursuit (for less than 15% of the population) to becoming a widespread phenomenon (for over 50%). A degree is now more of a confirmation of basic educational attainment rather than a guarantee of employment.
However, a degree from a top university (such as a 985/211 institution) remains valuable due to the scarcity of high-quality educational resources.
3. Why are top-tier universities expanding their enrollment in new engineering programs?
Recently, prestigious universities like Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Nanjing University have increased their enrollments, with a focus on new engineering fields such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and integrated circuits. The national plan for the next five years calls for an additional 100,000 students to be enrolled in Double First-Class undergraduate programs, averaging an increase of 700 students per institution.
The reason is that traditional majors are no longer keeping up with the times. In the past five years, nearly 5,000 majors have been discontinued, either because they can be replaced by AI or because they offer limited employment prospects. New engineering fields, such as AI, renewable energy, and semiconductors, are in high demand due to their role in future industries. This expansion signals to students that they should choose majors that align with current industry trends rather than sticking to traditional liberal arts disciplines.
4. What is the way forward?
The old approach of "getting into a good university → finding a good job → leading a good life" no longer works. To adapt to these changes, three key areas need to be focused on:
1. Choose the right major: Prioritize new engineering fields (AI, energy storage, semiconductors) and avoid those that are at risk of being replaced by AI or becoming saturated.
2. Choose the right university: Aim for top-tier institutions, especially those expanding in new engineering programs.
3. Choose the right city: Cities with a large college population (such as Guangzhou and Wuhan) offer more job opportunities, making it easier to find work after graduation.
In short, having a degree is no longer enough; it must be the right type of degree that meets the needs of the current market.
Conclusion
These educational and employment changes are ultimately due to a combination of declining populations, the impact of AI technology, and industrial upgrades. For most people, rather than worrying about the diminishing value of degrees, it is better to adjust their approaches. Instead of debating whether to repeat a year of school or pursue a postgraduate degree, focus on choosing the right major, university, and city for future career prospects.