Summary of Key Points
The Qingxiang Future City campus of Tsinghua University in Beijing (referred to as "Qingxiang Future City") was suddenly closed less than a year after its opening, with the direct reason being insufficient enrollment (only over 50 students enrolled this year, resulting in total income that did not cover costs such as rent). The deeper underlying issue is that the "real estate model" that once dominated the international education industry is on the decline. This model relied on large campuses and luxurious facilities as selling points, tied to real estate development projects for expansion. However, with a decreasing population and diminishing demand for international education, the high costs and remote locations of these large campuses have become a fatal burden. Schools are now seeking self-rescue, and it is more likely that smaller, more specialized schools with unique offerings will survive.
Detailed Analysis
1. Why Do Top-Scale Schools Close Suddenly? Lack of Funds Is the Immediate Trigger
Why couldn't Qingxiang Future City sustain itself? A look at the finances makes it clear:
- Low Income: Only over 50 students were enrolled this year, generating an income of only 10 million yuan from tuition fees (at 200,000 yuan per student per year). Adding the more than 130 existing students, the total revenue is less than 40 million yuan.
- High Costs: Rent alone amounts to 60 million yuan per year (more than the total income), not to mention teacher salaries (the high cost of personnel in international schools) and operational expenses, leading to substantial losses.
Normally, it takes three years for a new school to break even. But with less industry support now, schools have to "cut losses promptly" to avoid further losses and the resulting financial mess. It's no wonder parents are angry: they just rented or bought houses in the area, only to suddenly have to transfer their children to the main campus 45 minutes away or find another school in a hurry.
2. The International Education "Real Estate Model": Using Large Campuses as a Selling Point to Profit from Real Estate
What is the international education "real estate model"? Simply put, it relies on large campuses to create an impression and uses real estate development to generate revenue:
- The Selling Point of "Size": Admission brochures always start with statements like "covering XX acres with a building area of XX million square meters," followed by a list of luxurious facilities (swimming pools, theaters, rock climbing centers, digital laboratories). Parents think that such a large campus will provide a well-rounded education for their children and are willing to pay higher tuition fees.
- Tied to Real Estate: Large campuses require large plots of land, which are usually located on the outskirts of cities. Developers use these sites as part of their residential projects, offering both housing and international schools to attract buyers and generate additional revenue from tuition.
- Rapid Expansion: Once the model was successful, capital flowed in, and new schools were opened rapidly through direct operations and franchising. In just seven to eight years, the number of international schools in China increased from over 500 to nearly 1,000, with more than 80 opening each year at its peak.
3. Why Has the Real Estate Model Failed? No Students, and Large Campuses Have Become a Burden
This model worked before because there were many people and high demand—middle-class families competed to send their children to international schools, with 100 people competing for one spot. But now:
- Decreasing Demand: The population is declining, and changes in study abroad policies have reduced the demand for international education. At popular schools, perhaps only 20 people compete for one spot, while less competitive schools (like Nanjing Wycombe Abbey, with fewer than 400 students in 2025, compared to Qingxiang Future City's 130) struggle even more.
- A Vicious Cycle of Remote Locations: Large campuses can only be built on the outskirts; however, the farther they are from city centers, the harder it is to attract students. Parents don't want to spend an hour commuting daily, so they opt out.
- Rigid Costs: Rent and maintenance costs for large campuses are fixed, regardless of enrollment. When enrollments are low, larger campuses incur higher expenses, becoming an unmanageable burden.
4. Three Strategies for Schools to Survive:
Facing these challenges, schools are taking the following approaches:
- Cut Losses Promptly: Closing campuses with poor enrollment, such as Qingxiang Future City and Nord Anglia closing their campuses in Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Fangshan, Beijing.
- Switching to a Dual Track: No longer focusing solely on international education; adding domestic college entrance examination programs. For example, the main campus in Haidian offers multiple pathways for students to further their studies, both abroad and through the national exam.
- Stopping New Expansions: Avoiding unnecessary new schools. For instance, the Pinghe Lingang campus is being postponed, and many schools are focusing on improving their existing facilities.
5. International Education Isn't Dead—Just Changing Its Approach: Smaller, More Specialized Schools Are the Future
Many claim that international education is declining, but in reality, it's undergoing a transformation:
- Smaller, More Specialized Schools Are More Popular: Schools that never aimed for scale (such as those with small class sizes and specialized curricula) are more resilient. They have lower costs and can focus on quality, which parents are willing to pay for.
- Unchanged Demand: The demand for quality education remains, but parents are more selective, focusing on what schools can offer their children (e.g., AI courses, innovation skills).
- Returning to the Essence of Education: Future international schools need to answer the question: "What exactly do you have to offer for your child's future?" Only by addressing this issue can they survive, regardless of size.
In Conclusion
International education isn't failing; rather, the era of the "real estate model" is coming to an end. The industry is shifting from competing on scale to focusing on quality. Parents should also shift their focus from the size of a school to its educational offerings when choosing one.