Summary of Key Points
This article uses the experience of an old pirate who created illegal products and had his account banned by Google as a metaphor for the difficulties faced by the resurgence of American manufacturing. It highlights a fundamental principle: When you follow the underlying structures (costs, rules, resources, etc.), scale grows exponentially; when you go against these structures, scale becomes a source of rapid failure. This principle applies whether at the individual level or on a national scale, whether in cross-border business or manufacturing.
From Individual Account Bans to National Manufacturing Resurgence: The Same Script of Failure
The old pirate knew about copyright issues but decided to push ahead with his content products, hoping to expand before purchasing the necessary rights. When he had 600,000 daily active users (the highest in his category), his entire account was banned by Google—not just the products were removed, but his access to the platform was completely cut off. He later realized that this mirrored the American effort to bring manufacturing back home: both were fighting against objective structural constraints.
The United States wants to revive its manufacturing industry, but the container revolution has already changed the geographical landscape of manufacturing. Shipping costs are extremely low (thanks to buoyancy and larger ships), and containers have reduced loading and unloading times by 37 times. As a result, factories naturally relocate to areas with lower labor and land costs, rather than staying close to consumer markets like the United States. The old pirate faced platform rules; the United States struggled against global cost structures, and both efforts ended in failure.
Three Major Barriers to Manufacturing Resurgence: Physical, Monetary, and Human Factors
The inability of American manufacturing to return home is not due to a lack of effort but rather three significant barriers:
1. Physical Barriers: The low costs of shipping are a result of physical laws (buoyancy, larger ships). Tariffs can be increased, but they cannot overcome the logic that it is more economical to locate factories in cost-effective areas.
2. Monetary Barriers: As the US dollar is the global currency, the country must run trade deficits to send dollars abroad (to buy goods from other countries). This creates the "Triffin Dilemma": to maintain dollar dominance, a trade deficit is necessary, which means choosing between a manufacturing surplus and dollar hegemony. Trump’s attempts to reduce the deficit through tariffs only led to a record-high deficit in 2025.
3. Human Factor Barriers: There are severe challenges related to skilled labor (the F-22 fighter jet production was halted for ten years, dispersing experienced workers, and restarting production would cost billions), the inability to move entire supply chains (a single factory relies on hundreds of suppliers, and administrative orders are ineffective), and the risk aversion of investors (it takes 30 years for a factory to break even, while policies change every four years).
Exceptional Cases Where Resurgence Is Possible
Not all manufacturing sectors are doomed. There are two scenarios where it might be possible:
1. Exemptions from the Rules: Industries like chip manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, where labor costs account for a small portion (with most of the cost coming from equipment and materials), can withstand higher labor costs in the US. However, the investment required (e.g., TSMC’s US factory increased from $12 billion to $165 billion) is enormous, and even the best companies face significant challenges.
2. Government Support: In some cases, the government may provide funding or incentives (for example, the Virginia-class nuclear submarines were built by two different shipyards despite high costs to retain skilled workers). Without such support, the cost of restarting production would be prohibitive.
Capital Makes the Decision: Supply Chain Relocations Are Not a Return to Manufacturing, but a Shift in Location
While the US’s share of imports from China has decreased, Mexico and Vietnam’s shares have increased. This does not mean manufacturing is returning to the US; it means supply chains are being reconfigured with these countries as new hubs. For example:
- The proportion of Chinese goods imported via Vietnam and Mexico has risen (from 28% to 33%, respectively).
- Companies like BYD are building factories in Thailand, and supply chains are moving to India and Vietnam.
Capital always follows cost-effective routes, not political slogans.
Guidance for Individuals: Choose the Right Path to Avoid Pitfalls
For cross-border sellers and entrepreneurs, avoiding the old pirate’s mistakes requires choosing the right approach:
1. Compliance: Follow platform rules, invest in research and development, and build a strong brand (e.g., Anker, which remained unscathed during Amazon’s ban wave in 2021 and achieved revenue of $30.5 billion in 2025).
2. Sensitive Industries: For industries with sensitive content (like adult entertainment), use alternative payment methods and build your own websites to avoid App Store fees (although they are more expensive, they provide legal legitimacy).
3. Avoid Pitfalls: Do not try to circumvent regulations by using both sensitive content and traditional payment methods (e.g., fake sales or tax evasion); such approaches are prone to failure (as seen with companies like Patuxon and YoukeTree).
In summary: Channels, payment methods, and regulatory frameworks must all be compatible with your industry. Failing to meet even one requirement can lead to rapid failure.
Conclusion: Rules Do Not Target Those Who Shout Them, Only Those Who Act on Them
The old pirate initially thought he lost to copyright holders but later realized that the real enemy was the underlying structural constraints. The US’s calls for manufacturing resurgence were ineffective as capital continued to flow to Mexico and Vietnam. Individuals who try to break the rules first (e.g., by rushing ahead without compliance) end up with banned accounts.
By following the structures, every step you take contributes to growth; going against them lays the groundwork for failure. This is a lesson learned from the old pirate’s experience—and it reflects the fundamental logic of global business.