Summary of Key Points
Recently, egg prices have risen significantly, with the average price in major production areas across the country exceeding 5 yuan per jin (about 250 grams), a year-on-year increase of 40%. Wholesale prices are approaching those of pork. The main reason for the price surge is an imbalance between supply and demand: widespread losses in the egg chicken farming industry last year led to a reduction in production capacity, and the long replenishment cycle cannot keep up with the increased demand. Short-term factors such as the preparation for the Dragon Boat Festival and the rainy season have also contributed to the price increase. The price hike has triggered a series of issues, including scams and cases of eggs being stolen within companies. Although farmers' profits have improved significantly, prices may experience a slight decline in the short term due to the end of the festival. It will take about five months for the newly stocked chicks to start laying eggs, after which prices are expected to return to a more reasonable range.
I. How High Have Egg Prices Really Gone? — From an “Affordable Food Item” to a “Consumption Pressure”
This year, egg prices have risen particularly sharply:
- Wholesale: The average price in major production areas at the end of May was 4.88 yuan per jin (a 40% increase year-on-year), and on June 8th, the national wholesale market price was 10.61 yuan per kilogram, which is close to the price of pork.
- Retail: Supermarkets like Hema and Pupu sell regular eggs for 7-10 yuan per jin, with organic eggs being even more expensive.
- Breaking Tradition: Usually, the period after May Day is a low-season for eggs (due to ample supply and low demand), but this year prices have increased contrary to this trend.
II. Why Have Eggs Suddenly Become So Expensive? — Imbalance Between Supply and Demand as the Root Cause, with Short-Term Factors Exacerbating the Situation
The price increase is not accidental; it is mainly due to a decrease in supply and a sudden surge in demand:
1. Last Year’s Losses: The egg chicken industry suffered heavy losses in 2025, leading farmers to be reluctant to invest in new stock. By February, farmers were experiencing losses of up to 30 yuan per chicken. Many eliminated their old chickens and hesitated to restock, resulting in a reduction in the number of laying hens by 65 million compared to the end of last year, which accounts for nearly a ten percent decrease in egg production.
2. Slow Replenishment of Stock: It takes five months for chicks to start laying eggs. Although farmers have begun to restock (with orders placed until September), it will still be some time before the new chickens start producing eggs. Additionally, the current proportion of older hens is high (with an average age of 531 days, 10 days older than last year), leading to lower egg production and a tighter supply.
3. Short-Term Factors: The Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, and there is a sudden increase in demand for eggs for making zongzi and as gifts. During the rainy season in the south, merchants are cautious about holding onto eggs, preferring to buy and sell them quickly, which contributes to fast turnover but low inventory levels, driving up prices.
III. The “Strange” Behind the Price Increase — Eggs Have Become a Target of Scams and Theft
With rising egg prices, even scammers and thieves have taken notice:
- **“Egg Distribution Scams”: Scammers package eggs as an investment that only goes up in value, luring elderly people to collect them before tricking them into buying health products or financial services.
- Internal Theft by Companies: Four employees of Xiangjia Co., Ltd. colluded with outsiders to steal 240 tons of eggs (worth 4 million yuan) over three years, indicating that the market value of eggs has indeed increased.
IV. The Current Situation for Farmers and Companies
1. Farmers: Profits have significantly improved, with each jin of eggs generating a profit of 1.36 yuan and each chicken yielding a profit of 38.59 yuan, the highest level in recent years. Farmers are now actively restocking, but they need to wait five months for the new chickens to start laying eggs to increase supply.
2. Deep-Processing Companies: Last year, companies like Oufu Danye (which produce egg liquid and powder) saw a 90% increase in net profit due to low egg prices and cheap raw materials. This year, with higher egg prices, their profit margins are being squeezed, making things more difficult.
V. Will Egg Prices Drop in the Future? — A Short-Term Decline, with Long-Term Improvement Expected
- Short Term (1-2 months): After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand for eggs will decrease, and prices may fall slightly. However, merchants will still be cautious during the rainy season, so the drop will not be significant.
- Long Term (Second Half of the Year): The newly stocked chicks will start laying eggs in September, and as the hot summer weather subsides, egg production will increase, helping to bring prices back to a more reasonable range (around 3-4 yuan per jin).
- Advice for Farmers: The current profit window is limited, so it’s important to restock quickly. Otherwise, if too many farmers do so at once, overcapacity could lead to further losses.
In summary, the recent rise in egg prices is a result of past losses that reduced supply and a sudden surge in demand. There’s no need for panic; prices will gradually decrease as new chickens start laying eggs in a few months. However, for now, buying eggs may cost more. It might be worth considering alternative protein sources such as tofu or chicken breast meat.