Summary of Key Findings
In 2025, the Guangzhou Metro experienced an “abnormal” phenomenon: the daily average passenger volume across the entire network increased by 4.87% year-on-year (reaching 9.312 million passengers), yet passenger volumes on popular lines in the central urban area (such as Lines 3, 2, and 5) and at major stations (like Tiyuexi, Zhujiang New Town, and Kecun) declined significantly. The reasons behind this include the diversion of traffic to new lines, the city’s development towards a multi-center structure, and the replacement of short-distance commuting by electric bicycles. At the same time, passenger volumes on suburban lines (such as Lines 18 and 13) surged, reflecting Guangzhou’s transition from a single-centered city to a multi-centered one.
The Major Contradiction: Overall Passenger Volume Increase, but Central Lines Seeing a Decline
The performance of the Guangzhou Metro in 2025 was quite mixed:
- Overall Network Growth: The daily average passenger volume increased to 9.312 million, an increase of 430,000 compared to 2024, narrowing the gap with cities like Beijing and Shanghai, indicating that the metro’s operational capacity is strong or even improving.
- Central Lines in Decline: The most crowded lines, including their branches, saw significant reductions in passenger volume: Line 3 decreased by 4.7%, Line 5 (a vital artery through Zhujiang New Town) by 6.9%, Line 2 by 1.17%, and Line 1 by 5.47%. These lines, which used to be extremely crowded, are now experiencing a relief.
- Major Stations Also Seeing a Decline: Zhujiang New Town Station saw a decrease of 62,000 passengers per day, Tiyuexi Station by 56,000, and Kecun Station by 58,000. Even the bustling Tiyuexi Station is less crowded than before.
The key point is that Guangzhou’s population continues to grow (an increase of 123,000 in 2025), so it’s not that there are fewer people using the metro; rather, passenger traffic has shifted to other areas.
Three Main Drivers of the Decline in Central Area Passenger Volume
There are three main reasons for the decline in central area passenger volume:
1. New Lines Competing for Traffic
In the past five years, the Guangzhou Metro has added 240 kilometers of new lines, the most in the country. These new lines have directly diverted traffic from older routes:
- Line 18 (Nansha Express Line): Many people going to work in Nansha no longer need to take Line 3 and transfer to Zhujiang New Town; they can take Line 18 for a faster commute.
- Line 11 (Ring Line): This circular line connects multiple suburbs, reducing the traffic on central routes by providing direct connections between areas like Baiyun and Haizhu.
2. Urban Multi-Center Development
Previously, people mainly concentrated in Zhujiang New Town and Tianhe; now, there are also good job opportunities in the suburbs:
- Sub-centers such as Wanbo (Panyu), Science City (Huangpu), and Yuzhu (Huangpu) have created numerous new jobs. For example, with more companies in Nansha, residents no longer need to commute to the city center; they can take Line 18 directly.
- As population moves with employment, suburban areas are becoming more popular, reducing commuting to the central area.
3. Electric Bicycles Taking Over Short-Distance Commuting
Electric bicycles are very popular in Guangzhou:
- In 2025, the daily average number of bicycle rides reached 9.68 million, exceeding the metro’s 9.31 million. For short distances (within 3 kilometers), people prefer bicycles because they don’t have to wait for the metro or endure crowds, and they can arrive at their destination directly.
- The proportion of bicycle trips increased from 9.1% in 2021 to 17.9%, meaning one in every five people uses a bicycle, significantly affecting subway traffic.
Line Differentiation: Old Lines Bearing Less Load, New Lines Taking on More Responsibility
In 2025, the Guangzhou Metro’s lines showed a clear divide:
- Old Lines: Only Lines 3 and 2 (there were four such lines in 2019) still had daily average passenger volumes over one million; Line 5 even fell below one million.
- Lines 1, 8, Guangfo Line, and 4 all saw declines, while Line 6 had the smallest decrease (0.63%).
New Lines Showing Strong Growth:
- Line 18 (Nansha Direction): Passenger volume increased by 23.95%, indicating the growing popularity of the Nansha Free Trade Zone.
- Line 13 (Zengcheng Direction): Passenger volume increased by 17.54% due to increasing residential and employment demand in Zengcheng.
- Line 11 (Ring Line): Although it was recently opened, its passenger volume has already surpassed that of the Guangfo Line; it is expected to grow further with the opening of the new Guangzhou Railway Station.
- Lines 14 (Knowledge City), 21 (Zengcheng), and 22 (Panyu to Nansha) also saw significant increases, indicating that suburban lines are becoming the main drivers of growth.
In summary, old lines are reducing congestion, while new lines are attracting new passengers.
Popular Stations: Eighty Percent Seeing a Decline, New Ones Making It into the Top Ten
Among the top ten subway stations, eight experienced a decrease in passenger volume:
- Kecun (-24.41%) and Zhujiang New Town (-19.06%) saw the largest declines, suggesting that their appeal is waning.
- Tiyuexi (-12.19%) and Jiahe Wanggang also saw reductions.
- New stations like Guangzhou South Station (a transportation hub) and Chenjiasi (for both tourism and transfers) have made it into the top ten, while Shayuan and Wanshengwei have dropped out. This indicates that passenger traffic is no longer concentrated in the traditional city center but is spreading to transportation hubs and suburban areas.
The Urban Signal Behind These Changes: A Multi-Center Structure Is Really Taking Shape
The changes in Guangzhou Metro passenger volume reflect the city’s development:
1. End of the Single-Center Era: People no longer mainly gather in Tianhe and Yuexiu; instead, sub-centers like Nansha, Panyu, and Huangpu are attracting residents.
2. More Comfortable Commuting: Central lines are less crowded, improving passenger experience.
3. Suburban Areas’ Potential Unleashed: The growth of population and employment in areas like Nansha and Zengcheng shows that Guangzhou’s development is expanding beyond the old city center.
Overall, this “abnormal” phenomenon is not a bad thing; it indicates that the city is developing more evenly and healthily.