Summary of Key Points
Following the signing of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been nominally “completely opened,” yet the actual traffic volume is far below pre-conflict levels, with a large number of ships remaining stranded. The reasons include the incomplete removal of mines, the need for ships to undergo their own cleaning, disagreements between the US and Iran regarding strait management and toll collection, as well as the ongoing uncertainty in their relations. Although the agreement has led to short-term benefits such as a decline in crude oil prices, it will take time for the strait to return to normal traffic, and the situation 60 days from now will depend on further negotiations between the two countries.
I. The Agreement Was Signed, but the Strait Isn’t “Busy” Again – Traffic Volume Is Far From Pre-Conflict Levels
Before the conflict, at least 100 bulk cargo ships passed through the strait daily; now, only 36 do so. Although some ships from Qatar and Iran have begun to navigate (for example, 4 Qatari natural gas vessels and 5 Iranian oil tankers), 250 oil tankers and 440 cargo ships are still stranded within the strait, with 80% of the oil tankers remaining stationary. Additionally, there are 441 large oil tankers waiting near ports in Oman and the United Arab Emirates outside the strait. No one dares to proceed rashly, as the risks have not completely been eliminated.
II. Reasons Why Ships Are Hesitant to Travel: Mines Remain, and Ships Also Have Technical Issues
1. Mine Risk: There are mines in the central part of the strait, and the Joint Maritime Center warns ships to avoid them. The only options are to use the temporary route south of Oman (which has been confirmed to be mine-free) or the northern route through Iran (requiring an application 48 hours in advance). Oman is working with the International Maritime Organization to establish a temporary passage, but coordination is still needed.
2. Technical Issues with Ships: Ships that have been stranded for months have developed fouling on their bottoms due to the growth of barnacles and algae, similar to skin ulcers. Divers must clean these areas for several hours before the ships can proceed.
3. Crew Stranded: Approximately 11,000 crew members have been trapped for nearly four months. The International Maritime Organization has just launched an evacuation plan, and the ships cannot sail until the crew is safely removed.
III. Disagreements Between the US and Iran: Who Really Controls the Strait? And Will There Be Tolls?
- Iran’s Position: The strait will be open for free for 60 days after the agreement takes effect, after which the situation will depend on future negotiations. Iran claims it will manage the strait and that a specialized insurance company has been established; insurance is currently free, but there may be charges in the future.
- US Position: Secretary of State Rubio stated, “We will never accept tolls.” The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and no one should have the right to charge a fee, a view shared by regional countries.
The two parties have significant disagreements over control of the strait and the issue of toll collection, with ongoing tensions and conflicts.
IV. Implications for Oil Prices and Global Trade: Short-Term Benefits, but Recovery Takes Time
- Oil Price Decline: Middle Eastern oil reserves need to be transported through the strait to enter the market, increasing supply and causing international crude oil prices to fall recently.
- Gradual Recovery of Supply Chains: Logistics company DHL notes that while the opening of the strait is good news, it will take time for transportation to return to normal (e.g., due to the need to clean ships and address safety risks). However, at least market confidence has improved.
V. The Future Is Uncertain: What Happens in 60 Days?
The agreement states that Iran will ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for 60 days, but what after that? Iran suggests that it will depend on negotiations, while the US opposes tolls and Iranian management of the strait. Given the unstable relationship between the two countries, whether the strait can truly see a resurgence in traffic remains to be seen. For now, everyone is waiting and hesitant to take risks.
In summary, the US-Iran agreement is a positive sign, but there are many practical issues to address. Normalizing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be achieved with just a signature; it requires gradual progress. Although ordinary people may not feel the immediate effects, fluctuations in oil prices and the smoothness of global trade are closely related to the status of this strategic waterway.