Summary of Key Points
Sunpower is the company with the highest market value in the photovoltaic sector (over 300 billion yuan, more than the combined market values of its second to fourth-ranked competitors). However, its recent performance has faced the most severe challenge in four years, with both revenue and profit declining in Q4 of 2025, and annual net profits falling short of expectations. Nevertheless, the market remains optimistic about its prospects, mainly due to its advancements in two new technology areas: power supplies for AI data centers (AIDCs) and solid-state transformers (SSTs), which are considered the ultimate solutions for powering next-generation AIDCs. Additionally, Sunpower's accelerated international expansion supports its global strategy.
I. The Secret Behind Its Leading Market Value: Betting on the Future “New Track” Rather than Current Performance
Sunpower’s significant market value is not due to the strength of its current photovoltaic business but because the market believes it will be able to overtake its competitors in the field of power supply for AI data centers. AI data centers are heavy energy consumers (for example, the computing power behind ChatGPT, where electricity costs account for more than 30% of total expenses). Traditional power supply methods are inefficient and costly, while Sunpower’s SST technology addresses this issue. Institutions see this as the “next-generation ultimate solution,” and once commercialized, the market potential could be in the tens of billions of yuan. Therefore, even though its current performance is not strong, investors are willing to offer a high valuation.
II. The Power “Manager” for AI Data Centers: What Makes SST Technology So Revolutionary?
In simple terms, SST technology provides a more efficient power supply solution for AI data centers:
- Traditional Power Supply: It involves a lengthy process of converting medium-voltage alternating current (AC) to low-voltage AC and then to direct current (DC), which is inefficient and requires more space due to the additional equipment.
- SST Technology: It directly converts medium-voltage AC to 800V DC in one step, saving on electricity costs, materials (by using less copper wire), and space (resulting in smaller equipment).
More importantly, AI giants like NVIDIA are promoting 800V DC power supply architectures, and Sunpower’s solution aligns with this trend. For instance, its “SST + green energy direct supply” solution launched at a conference in June combines solar energy, storage, and AI power supply, addressing the instability of renewable energy sources, making it an ideal choice for AI data centers.
III. Accelerating International Expansion: Building Factories Close to Customers
Sunpower is building factories in Poland and Egypt for several reasons:
- Capturing Overseas Orders: For example, due to power shortages in the United States, AI data centers require energy storage, and overseas factories can deliver products more quickly without relying on domestic transportation.
- Supporting Globalization: Poland is close to the European market, while Egypt has a strategic position for accessing the Middle East and Africa, both of which are growing regions for photovoltaic and energy storage technologies. Building factories there reduces transportation costs and avoids trade barriers.
For example, the factory in Poland is planned to have an energy storage capacity of 22.5GWh (equivalent to 22.5 million kWh) and inverter capacity of 20GW, sufficient to meet large European orders.
IV. Under the Halo of High Market Value: First Double-Drop in Performance in Four Years
Although the future looks promising, Sunpower is facing difficulties:
- Q4 2025 Performance Decline: Revenue decreased by 18% year-over-year, and net profit fell by 54%, marking the first quarter since 2021 where both revenue and profit declined.
- Annual Results Below Expectations: The annual net profit was 7% lower than market forecasts, causing the stock price to plummet by 10.8% on April 1, resulting in a loss of 30 billion yuan in market value.
This indicates that while new businesses have potential, traditional businesses (such as photovoltaic inverters and energy storage) may be encountering growth bottlenecks or increased competition, and Sunpower needs to find new profit growth points to stabilize its performance.
Conclusion
Sunpower is a company with a dual profile: on one hand, it represents a promising investment in the emerging AI technology sector; on the other hand, it faces significant pressure from its traditional businesses. Investors are betting on the success of SST and AIDC power supply technologies once they are mass-produced by 2027. However, if new business developments slow down or performance continues to decline, Sunpower’s market value could fluctuate. For the general public, when following news about Sunpower, it is important to pay attention to both “technological advancements” and “performance data”—the former determines its future potential, while the latter reflects current risks.