Summary of Key Points
The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by the US-Iran conflict, resulting in the detention of approximately 600 vessels and 11,000 sailors. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently launched an evacuation plan, but the sailors are facing dual challenges of living conditions and mental health issues. Shipowners are in a dilemma due to conflicting instructions regarding the routes to take. The blockade has also led to a surge in vessel maintenance costs and significant losses from delayed cargo deliveries, with the possibility that alternative trade routes may become permanent.
1. The "Hundred Days of Torture" for Detained Sailors: Lack of Fresh Water, Mental Strain, and Vessel Damage
Yang Guangxin, one of the sailors trapped for over three months, spends his time fishing and watching dramas. On board, only 1 ton of fresh water is produced daily, so everyone must use it sparingly. Mentally, the endless wait is pushing him to the brink of collapse. Additionally, the vessel's bottom has been covered with numerous barnacles (small crustaceans), which increase sailing resistance and slow down the ship's speed. The cost of cleaning these barnacles has risen from $5,000 to $8,000 (a 60% increase), and the number of orders has surged by 30 times—this is a common problem for all detained vessels.
2. The IMO Evacuation Plan: Hopeful, but Shipowners in a Dilemma
The IMO has announced plans to evacuate 11,000 sailors, and Oman has provided two temporary routes. However, shipowners are faced with difficulties: Iran requires vessels to sail close to its coast and obtain prior permission, otherwise, they may face penalties; the US recommends using the Oman route, which offers air cover, but there are concerns about Iranian interference. If shipowners follow US advice, they could be detained by Iran; if they follow Iranian instructions, they might face US sanctions. This dilemma makes it difficult for them to make a decision.
3. The Economic Toll of the Blockade: $125 Billion in Lost Cargo and Insurance Claims
The total value of the detained cargo is estimated at approximately $125 billion, and insurance companies have already received claims. Some vessels have been damaged by drones or missiles, and frozen food and medicines have spoiled. Coupled with the increased costs of vessel maintenance, shipowners' losses continue to rise.
4. Changing Trade Routes: Alternative Routes May Become Permanent
Before the conflict, about 135 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily; now, only 69 do so per week, a far from full recovery. Many companies are beginning to use alternative routes, such as the Gulf of Oman, Red Sea ports, or land routes. These emergency routes may become permanent due to the security risks associated with the blocked strait, which could change the global trade landscape (e.g., increasing transportation costs and longer travel times).
This news report highlights that localized conflicts not only affect the lives of sailors but also drive up global trade costs and potentially alter trade routes. Ultimately, these additional expenses may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for imported goods.