Summary of Key Points
South Korea, with the lowest birth rate in the world, has recently seen a significant rebound in both the number of births and the total fertility rate: the number of births in April 2025 increased by 18% year-on-year (the highest increase for the same month since 1981), and the total fertility rate rose to 0.93. The number of marriages between 2024 and 2025 has been increasing, leading to a rise in the number of newborns. Years of government investment in fertility policies are beginning to show results, but young people's concerns about the costs associated with marriage and childrearing remain. Whether this rebound will be sustained remains to be seen.
I. Highlights of the Data: How Strong is the Fertility Rate Rebound?
South Korea's population data is indeed impressive:
- Monthly Surge: The number of births in April 2025 was 24,500, an increase of nearly 4,000 (18%) compared to the same period last year, the highest for that month since 2019. The total fertility rate also rose from 0.8 in April last year to 0.93.
- Yearly Growth: The number of births from January to April this year was nearly 100,000, an increase of 15.5% compared to last year, the highest for the same period since 2019.
- Trend Reversal: The fertility rate hit a low of 0.72 in 2023 (the lowest in the world) and then rose to 0.75 in 2024, and exceeded 0.8 in 2025, marking the first consecutive year of increase in nine years.
In short, South Korea has finally turned a corner from a downward trend of declining birth rates.
II. The Link Between Marriage and Childbirth: Do More Marriages Lead to More Children?
South Korea has a unique situation where childbearing is almost always preceded by marriage (the proportion of out-of-wedlock births is extremely low). Therefore, the key to the fertility rate rebound lies in the increase in the number of marriages:
- In 2024, 222,400 couples got married, a 14.8% increase from 2023; in 2025, the number of marriages further rose to 240,000; and in January to April 2026, 83,000 couples married, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year.
- As the number of marriages increases, so does the number of newborns: 238,300 newborns were born in 2024 (a 3.6% increase) and 252,400 in 2025 (another 6% increase).
Why is there such a strong link between marriage and childbirth? On one hand, it's due to traditional beliefs that marriage is the "correct way" to have children; on the other hand, policies favor married families, making it difficult for single mothers to receive support.
III. Policy Efforts: After Spending $300 Billion, Are Results Visible?
The South Korean government has made significant investments to boost fertility rates:
- Long-term Investment: Since 2006, a total of 380 trillion won (about $290 billion) has been spent, averaging more than $10 billion per year.
- Specific Measures: A presidential-appointed "Low Fertility Rate Committee" was established to provide subsidies to families with children (e.g., financial grants), offer parental leave, build more daycare centers, and reduce education costs.
- Effect of Policies: Government officials say these policies have alleviated issues such as difficulty in getting married and high costs of raising children—subsidies help ease financial burdens, and more daycare centers allow mothers to work with peace of mind.
However, it has taken nearly 20 years to see any improvement, indicating how challenging it is to address low fertility rates.
IV. Changes Among Young People: Why Are They More Willing to Marry and Have Children?
In addition to policies, the attitudes and circumstances of young people have also changed:
- A Generational Advantage: Women born between 1996 and 2000 grew up pampered by their parents and are in relatively better economic conditions, making them more open to marriage and childbearing compared to the previous generation, who were deterred by financial pressures.
- Marriage as a Strategic Decision: Today's eligible couples come from financially stable backgrounds, and marriage is seen as a way to combine resources for raising children. Many plan to have children before getting married, rather than having unplanned pregnancies.
However, it's important to note that most young people are still cautious. Scholars point out that despite subsidies, the psychological barriers (such as time and energy required for childrearing and concerns about educational competition) remain significant.
V. Is This a Temporary Fluctuation or a Long-Term Trend? What Are the Uncertainties?
The current rebound may be temporary and not represent a long-term trend:
- Limited Window of Marriage: The generation willing to marry may only have a few years to do so; if economic conditions worsen (e.g., high unemployment or rising housing prices), the number of marriages could decline again.
- Still Low Fertility Rate: Although South Korea's fertility rate has risen, it remains the lowest among sovereign countries, below even Singapore's level. It is far from the 2.1 required for stable population growth.
- Unresolved Cost Issues: Government subsidies address some practical costs, but young people's fears about high costs (e.g., education and housing) remain unresolved.
In summary, South Korea's fertility rate rebound is a result of increased marriages, policy efforts, and changing attitudes among young people. However, underlying issues (such as high costs and economic uncertainties) have not been completely resolved. For a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world, there is still a long way to go before it can truly escape the trap of low fertility.