第一财经

These 11 cognitive biases prove that we are not more rational than our ancestors?

原文:这11种认知偏误,证明我们并不比古人更理性?

Summary of the Core Content

*The Age of Imagination* is a popular science book that uses everyday examples to explain cognitive biases. It argues that cognitive shortcuts developed in our ancient evolutionary history—such as quickly associating causes and effects and making judgments based on limited information—have been amplified by the internet and algorithms in modern society, leading to collective irrationality (as seen in the popularity of MBTI tests and astrology). However, the book has its limitations: it attributes these issues to individual cognitive biases and algorithmic influences, while ignoring the possibility that irrationality may not be a new phenomenon but has simply become more visible. It also avoids discussing the underlying structural forces (such as large companies deliberately designing algorithms to manipulate users).

I. Cognitive Shortcuts: From “Survival Tools” to “Modern Troubles”

Our brains are “lazy”; in ancient times, we needed to make quick decisions to survive—e.g., immediately assuming there was a predator when we heard a noise in the bushes, or judging whether someone was good or bad based on their appearance or a few behaviors. These shortcuts were essential for survival in resource-scarce environments. But in modern times, with economic instability, AI competing for jobs, and a flood of true and false information online, these instincts are reactivated. Popular practices like MBTI tests and astrology serve as a way for our brains to impose some order on chaos: “I’m an INFP, so I’m suited for creative work,” or “Mercury is in retrograde today, no wonder I’m having bad luck.” These claims have no scientific basis, but they give us a sense of control, like providing a psychological comfort blanket. The internet and algorithms amplify these tendencies, pushing us towards more extreme forms of “magical thinking.”

II. Cognitive Biases That Will Make You Smile

The author breaks down 11 common cognitive biases using everyday examples:

  • Halo Effect: Why are Taylor Swift’s fans seen as her “spiritual mother”? Because celebrities on social media are carefully crafted images, and our brains automatically fill in the gaps to create a perfect image of them. When she does something that doesn’t match this image, we’re disappointed—even though we don’t really know who she is.
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy: We’re reluctant to end a bad relationship or continue investing in a losing stock because we’ve invested so much time/money; in ancient times, giving up those investments was risky. But with so many choices available today, this obsession only leads to further harm.
  • IKEA Effect: We feel that furniture assembled by ourselves is better than bought ready-made products because we’ve invested effort into it, which our brains inflate in value.
  • Confirmation Bias: Events as significant as Kennedy’s assassination seem like they must be the result of a conspiracy—because our brains assume that major events have complex causes, making conspiracy theories persistent.

III. The Book’s Weaknesses: Is Irrationality Really Caused by the Internet?

The author assumes that the internet has increased irrationality, but this is not necessarily true:

  • Historical Examples of Irrationality: The witch hunts in 15th-century Europe, the Dutch tulip bubble in 1637 (both driven by sunk cost and herd behavior), and the genocide in Rwanda in 1994 all demonstrate that irrationality has always existed; it’s just that we now have digital records of them.
  • The Meta Experiment: In 2023, Meta changed its algorithm to display content in a timeline rather than based on relevance, with almost no impact on political polarization and misinformation. This suggests that algorithms are not the primary cause of these issues.

IV. Cassirer’s Question: Who Is Really Manipulating Our Irrationality?

While the author blames individual cognition and algorithms, philosopher Karl Cassirer offers a more profound perspective:

  • The Permanent Nature of Mythological Thinking: According to Cassirer, “magical thinking” is not a rational deviation but an inherent way humans construct meaning. Throughout history, people have used stories (even irrational ones) to understand the world.
  • Overlooking Structural Forces: The book fails to consider who designs these algorithms—companies like Meta and TikTok aim to increase user engagement for more advertising revenue. Their behavioral scientists optimize interfaces based on our neural responses, making individual “self-awareness” powerless in the face of massive corporate interests.

V. Is the Book Worth Reading?

As an introduction to cognitive psychology, it’s valuable. For example, it can help you recognize and avoid common biases (like the sunk cost fallacy) in personal relationships or investments. However, if you want to understand why our era is so irrational, the book doesn’t provide a definitive answer; it avoids discussing the underlying structural forces and blames individuals and algorithms instead.

In summary, *The Age of Imagination* can help you identify your own cognitive biases, but it doesn’t shed light on the broader workings of society.