Summary of Key Points
The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System," released on June 25, outlines the general policy of "active, safe, and orderly development" of nuclear power, with the goal of having 110 million kilowatts of operational nuclear power capacity by 2030. China currently leads the world in nuclear power capacity, with a complete industrial chain and a high degree of localization. In the future, the focus will be on developing coastal bases, while inland nuclear power projects will be postponed for now. At the same time, efforts will accelerate to advance advanced technologies such as small reactors and fourth-generation reactors, which will work in conjunction with clean energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower to support the country's new energy supply structure.
1. Nuclear Power Capacity Goal for 2030: An Increase of Nearly 50 Million Kilowatts Over Four Years
By the end of 2025, China's operational nuclear power capacity was 62.52 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it is expected to reach 110 million kilowatts. This means an additional 47.48 million kilowatts need to be added over the next four years. Assuming each unit requires approximately 20 billion yuan in investment, this would equate to the construction of 23-24 new units, with a total investment of over 460 billion yuan. This goal is not overly ambitious, as nuclear power serves as a stable "baseload power source" that can generate electricity 24 hours a day, unlike wind and solar energy, which are affected by the weather. It can complement the intermittency of these renewable sources and help China achieve its dual carbon goals (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) while ensuring energy security for major eastern provinces with high electricity demand.
2. "Stable Construction Pace": Why Is This Important for the Industrial Chain?
The plan emphasizes maintaining a stable construction pace, which is beneficial for both upstream and downstream companies. In recent years, China has approved the construction of 10-11 units per year, avoiding large fluctuations in orders. If too many units are built suddenly, companies may over-expand their capacity only to face idle plants later on; if construction stops abruptly, it could lead to layoffs and reduced production. With a steady pace, companies involved in nuclear fuel production, heavy equipment manufacturing (such as those producing reactor pressure vessels), and maintenance services will have a consistent stream of orders, ensuring long-term development. For example, the total investment for 41 units exceeds 800 billion yuan, which will gradually flow into various parts of the industrial chain, promoting employment and technological advancement.
3. Focusing on Coastal Areas: Why Not Inland Nuclear Power Yet?
The plan does not mention inland nuclear power projects and continues to prioritize coastal bases. There are practical reasons for this:
- Cooling Requirements: Nuclear power requires a large amount of water for cooling, which is readily available in coastal areas using seawater. Inland regions rely on rivers and lakes, and any accidents (such as leaks) could have a greater impact on freshwater supplies.
- Electricity Demand: Coastal areas are economically developed, with high electricity demand. Building nuclear power plants there allows for direct power supply without the need for long-distance transmission, reducing energy losses.
- Safety Concerns: Inland regions have higher population densities, and public concerns about nuclear safety are more pronounced. Therefore, it is better to gain experience in coastal areas before considering inland projects.
4. Technological Innovation: Small Reactors and Fourth-Generation Reactors
The plan highlights the development of small reactors and fourth-generation reactors as new directions for nuclear power:
- Small Reactors: These units are smaller and more flexible, suitable for islands (e.g., in the South China Sea without existing power grids), industrial parks (for self-generated electricity and heating), and remote areas. Small reactors have already entered the demonstration operation phase in China and could fill gaps left by larger nuclear power plants.
- Fourth-Generation Reactors: Technologies like high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and fast reactors are safer (they won't melt down even in a power outage) and more efficient than the current third-generation reactors. Demonstration projects are underway, and once mature, they will make nuclear power more reliable and environmentally friendly. These technological advancements can also drive the development of high-end equipment industries, with China already producing over 90% of the necessary materials and key components domestically, reducing reliance on foreign imports.
5. The Role of Nuclear Power in the Energy Mix
Nuclear power is not developed in isolation but works in conjunction with other clean energy sources:
- Coastal Areas: A combination of nuclear power, offshore wind, and distributed photovoltaic systems supplies electricity to major eastern provinces (e.g., Shanghai and Jiangsu).
- Central and Western Regions: Wind and solar power bases in the north and southwest regions will transport green energy to the east. This approach compensates for the intermittency of renewable sources, creating a complementary energy supply system that reduces the use of fossil fuels and moves towards becoming an energy powerhouse while achieving dual carbon goals.
In summary, this plan provides a clear roadmap for nuclear power development: maintaining a steady pace, focusing on coastal areas, advancing technology, and coordinating with other clean energy sources. It ensures safety and practicality, positioning nuclear power as a key pillar in China's energy transition over the next five years.