虎嗅

Did Douyin miscalculate by not investing in the World Cup?

原文:没买世界杯,抖音失算了?

Summary of Key Points

For the 2026 United States, Canada, and Mexico World Cup, Douyin (TikTok) did not purchase the broadcasting rights. Instead, it tried to capitalize on the event through various strategies such as creating dedicated hot lists, live text broadcasts, producing its own content, and bringing in star player Erling Haaland. The reasons for not purchasing the rights included an unfavorable cost-benefit analysis (ROI), a saturation in user growth, tight budgets (1.1 billion yuan already spent on the Spring Festival event), and a strategic shift towards AI development. In contrast, REDnote purchased the rights and reaped significant benefits, including a surge in traffic, attracting new male users, and even contributing to its IPO efforts. While Douyin saved money in the short term, it may lose its position in the sports content market and user loyalty in the long run.

Why Didn’t Douyin Buy the World Cup Rights? Four Reasons Show It Wasn’t Worth It

Douyin’s decision to forgo the rights was not due to a lack of interest, but rather an unfavorable financial assessment:

1. Poor ROI: The cost of broadcasting rights ranged from 1 to 1.7 billion yuan, but this year’s matches were mostly held in the early morning or morning hours, with fewer viewers, resulting in limited revenue from advertising and e-commerce activities.

2. User Growth Has Reached a Ceiling: Douyin currently has 1.09 billion monthly active users, while China has only around 1.1 billion internet users. There is little room for additional user growth through the World Cup (compared to 2022 when it purchased the rights and had 680 million monthly active users at that time).

3. Tight Budgets: The company spent 1.1 billion yuan on the Spring Festival event on its platform, leaving little funding available for the World Cup.

4. Strategic Focus on AI: ByteDance is prioritizing investment in AI (with 160 billion yuan allocated to AI chips and servers in 2025), making the World Cup less of a priority.

Douyin’s Alternative Approaches to Capitalize on the Event Without Rights

Despite not having the official broadcast rights, Douyin still tried various methods to engage with the audience:

  • Dedicated Hot Lists: It created hot lists related to the World Cup, but these often led to either graphic summaries or outdated videos (for example, searches for Cristiano Ronaldo’s goals showed no new footage).
  • Live Text Broadcasts: It used an AI-powered “football expert” to provide real-time updates, although the information was incomplete (for instance, it didn’t specify who scored the second goal when users asked).
  • Original Content: It produced programs like “Football Expert Conference” with debates and commentary, which were watched by millions each night.
  • User Engagement: It encouraged users to share content using the #WorldCupI’mHere hashtag, offering prizes and chances to win giveaways.
  • Haaland’s Presence: The recruitment of Haaland as a brand ambassador attracted 3.9 million new followers; his related merchandise was a huge success, but Douyin couldn’t show any of his goal footage.

The Impact of Not Having Official Footage on Douyin’s Traffic

The absence of official match footage significantly weakened Douyin’s appeal:

  • Decline in Topic Views: The number of views on World Cup-related topics dropped from 38.2 billion in the 2022 Qatar World Cup to 20.4 billion this year (with a large portion of the traffic coming from non-event-related content).
  • Scattered Content: Hot topics had to be promoted through peripheral channels, such as interviews with Cape Verdean goalkeepers, without any coherent traffic flow.
  • User Losses: Fans unable to watch goal footage turned to REDnote, which saw a 2.7 billion view on the first day of the event, with over 60% of users being male (originally, REDnote’s user base was predominantly female).

What Did REDnote Gain by Buying the Rights?

REDnote’s investment of around 1 billion yuan in broadcasting rights yielded unexpected results:

  • Traffic Surge: The #WorldCup hashtag had over 7.1 billion views, and the number of live viewers increased by 55 times.
  • Improved User Composition: More than 60% of the new users were male, filling a gap in the platform’s sports audience.
  • IPO Boost: The World Cup event helped REDnote prepare for its IPO application, as investors saw potential in user growth and a diverse ecosystem.
  • Lived Streaming Ecosystem Development: The World Cup helped REDnote’s live streaming services become more popular, potentially attracting more sports-related content in the future.

Long-Term Implications: Can REDnote Secure Its Position in Sports Content?

In the short term, Douyin saved money by not purchasing the rights. However, in the long run, it may suffer a loss of influence in the sports category. Users might increasingly turn to REDnote for sports content, affecting Douyin’s content ecosystem. On the other hand, REDnote could gain a strong presence in the sports sector, potentially attracting more star players and broadcasting rights in the future.

Conclusion

It’s too early to draw a definitive conclusion, but in this competition, REDnote took the lead by effectively leveraging the World Cup event.