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Ten Years Since Brexit: How Much Has the UK Really Lost? GDP Has Declined by Approximately 6%, Resulting in an Annual Loss of £2,500 per Household

原文:脱欧十年,英国究竟亏了多少?GDP累计损失约6%,每个家庭每年亏2500英镑

Summary of Key Points

Ten years after Brexit, the economic and social costs have far exceeded expectations: The UK's GDP has decreased by approximately 6%, investment and exports have plummeted, the depreciation of the pound has raised living costs, public services have struggled due to reduced funding, and immigration policies have created new conflicts. More than half of the population regrets Brexit and supports rejoining the EU, leading to increased social divisions. The decision made ten years ago is still having a significant impact on the UK.

1. Economic Impact: A 6% GDP Loss in Ten Years

Brexit was not a cost-saving move but a major financial setback. The Bank of England and Stanford University have calculated that the total GDP is 6% lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU—equivalent to each British citizen receiving several thousand pounds less per year. American studies estimate an even greater decline in GDP by 6%-8%, with business investment dropping by 12%-18%, and employment and production efficiency decreasing by 3%-4%.

The situation for exports is particularly dire: After leaving the EU's tariff union (which eliminates tariffs on trade) and single market (free movement of goods, people, and capital) in 2021, export costs soared. Exports to the EU fell by 12%, with agricultural products suffering the most—poultry exports dropped by 37.7%, and beef and dairy products were also hit hard. subsequent free trade agreements have not been able to make up for this loss.

Companies have also responded negatively: In 2024, 88 companies delisted from the London Stock Exchange or moved their operations elsewhere, such as gambling giant Flutter and tech company Dark Trace; in 2025, financial technology firm Wise moved its main listing to NASDAQ in the United States. The value of the pound has also weakened, dropping by 10% compared to 2016 (from an average of 1.27 pounds per euro before Brexit to 1.16 pounds now), and it has been below 1.20 for 98% of the time.

2. Rising Living Costs: Families Spending an Additional £2,500 per Year

The depreciation of the pound has directly reduced people's purchasing power. Many UK goods and services rely on imports, and with the pound losing value, import prices have increased. For example, food prices rose by 38.6% between 2020 and 2025—what used to cost £10 now costs £14.

Studies show that an average family faces an additional annual loss of £2,500 due to Brexit: wages have not increased (almost stagnant after adjusting for inflation), while prices have risen sharply. Additionally, the UK's per capita GDP has fallen behind that of the United States (£53,000 vs £84,000), and even Poland's standard of living is approaching that of the UK. If this trend continues, in ten years, Poles may be wealthier than Britons.

3. Public Services: Reduced Funding by £90 Billion

Brexit has left the government with less money to fund public services. Institutions like the London School of Economics estimate that Brexit has resulted in a annual reduction of £90 billion in public funding—15 times more than the UK's net contribution to the EU before leaving! Without sufficient funds, public services have declined: delayed transportation, long waiting times in hospitals, and lower efficiency in the judiciary have become the norm, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.

The population issue has become even more problematic: With a large number of EU workers leaving after Brexit, the UK had to rely on non-EU immigrants. However, the expected net immigration figure has dropped from 340,000 to 230,000, and natural population growth is negative (more deaths than births). In the next decade, the number of pension recipients is expected to increase by 15% (to 14.2 million), while the working population is declining. This means fewer taxes to support growing pension and healthcare costs, putting significant pressure on the government.

4. The Backlash of Immigration Policies

The promise to control immigration has backfired: While Brexit aimed to end free movement of people from the EU, the departure of EU workers led to a labor shortage, forcing the UK to recruit non-EU immigrants. The number of net non-EU immigrants has surged, exacerbating racial tensions, with violence against immigrants increasing in areas like Northern Ireland and London, and minority groups from South Asia and North Africa facing discrimination.

Surveys show that over 90% of Britons feel a sense of social division—Brexit has not resolved the immigration issue but has only further divided society.

5. Public Opinion: More than Half Want to Rejoin the EU

The latest polls indicate that 55% of people support rejoining the EU. Many who voted for Brexit ten years ago now regret their decision, as they have not seen any benefits; instead, they face stagnant wages, rising prices, and poor services. The UK is paying a heavy price for this "one-day vote," with the consequences of Brexit continuing to unfold.

In summary: Brexit was not a celebration of independence and freedom but a decade-long period of economic and social suffering. Britons are finally realizing that the cost of their decision was too high.