Summary of Key Points
The central argument of this article is that the rise of short videos is overwhelming the already fragile film industry, which may even affect theme parks such as Disney and Universal Studios. The film industry inherently has flaws, including difficulties in generating profits, long recovery periods, and high risks. Short videos further impact the industry from three aspects: user attention, traffic costs, and public opinion. Theme parks, due to their heavy investments and long recovery periods, also struggle to compete with the intense competition from short videos and games.
Detailed Analysis
1. The Inherent Weaknesses of the Film Business Model
The film industry's profit-making logic is quite problematic:
- High Barriers to Profit Recovery: A movie that requires an investment of 300 million yuan needs to earn a box office of 1 billion yuan just to break even, and there's always the risk of losing all the money.
- Long Recovery Period: From preparation to release, it takes several years to produce a film. Any unexpected issue during this time (such as an actor's drug issues or tax violations, sudden policy restrictions, or a blockbuster competing with a movie like "The Wandering Earth") can ruin the investment.
2. Short Videos Make It Difficult for Users to Stay Engaged
Short videos have completely changed users' entertainment habits:
- Fragmented Attention: Short videos offer constant excitement (such as unexpected plot twists and funny segments), and users are accustomed to quick, engaging content. It's hard to ask them to sit still in a cinema for two hours without using their phones. Films must speed up the pace and include more intense moments to retain viewers, but this can lead to a "fast-food" quality of entertainment.
- Diverse Entertainment Options: Users have many other options, such as watching short dramas, playing games, watching live broadcasts, or listening to novels. They can even watch a movie summary in just 5 minutes on short video platforms (e.g., "Watching 'Avatar' in 3 minutes"). With limited time, the slow-paced film industry is no longer as appealing.
3. Surging Traffic Costs and the Low-Repeat Purchase Model of Films
In the era of short videos, traffic costs are high because it must be purchased. The film industry's "one-time consumption" model is particularly problematic:
- Fierce Traffic Competition: On short video platforms, live streaming, online courses, and local services all compete for traffic. As algorithms improve, traffic becomes more expensive, and there are no free benefits.
- Low Repeat Purchases: Films are a one-off experience; once a user is attracted to a movie, they may not return. In the past, film companies relied on IP franchises (like Marvel or James Bond) to generate repeat business, but audiences are tired of being exploited. Now, they see movies by famous directors and stars as just another way to make money and are less willing to pay.
4. Reversal of Public Opinion
Short videos have broken the monopoly of traditional media, allowing public sentiment to directly affect celebrities:
- Previously: Elite Media and Celebrities Supported Each Other: Traditional media controlled the narrative, and they worked together with famous directors and stars for mutual benefit.
- Now: Public Sentiment Matters: The key to short video popularity is emotional expression. For example, a brief statement by Han Hong at a promotional event can lead to her being criticized on social media—this isn't necessarily because she did something wrong, but because the public needs an outlet for their emotions, and she just happened to be targeted.
5. The Future of Theme Parks
Theme parks, like the film industry, face similar challenges:
- Heavy Investments and Long Recovery Periods: Building a theme park costs billions and takes years to recover costs. If user interests change (e.g., Generation Z doesn't care about Transformers) or more exciting entertainment options emerge (such as VR games or short videos), investments can be lost.
- Lack of Intense Entertainment: Theme parks rely on IP content and attractions, but these are becoming less appealing compared to the excitement provided by short videos and games. For example, Generation Z might find gaming more thrilling than riding a roller coaster.
Conclusion
The decline of the film industry is due to both its inherent flaws and external pressures. Short videos not only steal users but also increase costs and change public opinion. Theme parks, with their similar issues of heavy investments and long recovery periods, may follow the same path. In the future, only entertainment formats that can adapt to fast-paced, high-repeat purchase, and interactive experiences will survive in the era of short videos.