Summary of Key Points
OpenAI had originally planned to go public in the near future, but CEO Sam Altman insisted on a valuation of $1 trillion, which led to the decision to postpone the IPO until 2027. The reasons behind this include: learning from the sharp drop in SpaceX's stock price after its initial public offering (IPO); concerns that the public market would not accept the “faith-based pricing” of AI companies; the need to demonstrate the irreplaceability of their technology (such as GPT-5) and sustained revenue growth; and the impact of the postponement on the industry chain (significant declines in the stock prices of SoftBank and铠hea). Altman’s target valuation of $1 trillion is not out of vanity but rather a strategic move to gain the power to attract and manage capital over the long term. The cost of this wait is that the entire market must continue to navigate the uncertain pricing logic of AI in the dark.
Detailed Analysis
1. Altman’s Insistence on $1 Trillion: Learning from SpaceX’s Mistake
Why does Altman insist on such a high valuation? It’s not out of greed but due to the lessons learned from SpaceX’s experience. SpaceX’s IPO, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, resulted in a stock price that fell below its opening price, becoming a cautionary tale for investors. The public market no longer embraces the concept of “super unicorns” (companies valued over $10 billion) based on faith alone; instead, it focuses on practical considerations such as rising interest rates, competitive pressures, rapid technological advancements, and the inability of these projects to generate profits.
OpenAI and SpaceX are different: SpaceX sells a scarce resource in the physical world (reusable rockets), whose value has already been proven by the market. OpenAI, on the other hand, offers a digital solution that threatens human intelligence, but its value has not yet been fully established. Although ChatGPT has 900 million active users and generates $2 billion in monthly revenue, its valuation of $85.2 billion in the private market may be lower in the public market. Altman is waiting for GPT-5 to further solidify OpenAI’s technological leadership and for its revenue to continue to set new records, proving that OpenAI is irreplaceable before considering a lower valuation for its IPO.
2. The Impact of the Postponed IPO on the Industry Chain
The postponement of OpenAI’s IPO caused panic in the industry chain. SoftBank’s stock price dropped by 12% within two days, as it had invested $65 billion in OpenAI, expecting this IPO to provide a reference point for its investments. Japan’s storage chip company,铠hea, also saw a 12% decline, as it benefits significantly from AI’s demand for storage chips. The postponement means that the pace of investment in AI-related technologies will need to be recalibrated, with investors becoming more cautious about their spending.
Even market forecasts have changed: Traders now estimate only a 59% chance of OpenAI going public by March 2027, with most expecting it to happen later in the year.
3. Continuous Spending Despite the Postponement
The postponement does not mean that OpenAI is stopping its spending. With monthly revenue of $2 billion, OpenAI’s expenses on data centers, talent recruitment, and sales efforts are increasing. It relies on private funding of $12.2 billion, but this comes with challenges: while it allows the company to focus on technology development (such as GPT-5) without the pressure of immediate financial results, it also means that it must avoid releasing official financial reports for now. The market can only estimate OpenAI’s value based on indicators like SoftBank’s stock price, SpaceX’s performance, and铠hea’s orders, creating an unstable foundation for its valuation.
4. Anthropic’s Potential to Set a New Standard
The most concerning factor for OpenAI is Anthropic, another AI giant that has already submitted its IPO documents with a valuation of $96.5 billion (higher than OpenAI’s previous round) and plans to go public in October. If Anthropic goes public first, whether its stock price rises or falls on the first day, it will set a benchmark for the entire AI industry. OpenAI will then have to follow suit, potentially at a higher valuation, which Altman would prefer to avoid.
5. The True Meaning of the $1 Trillion Valuation
In Silicon Valley, valuation is more about power than just a number:
- A high valuation attracts top talent from around the world;
- It allows for better negotiation with cloud service providers regarding computing resources (higher valuations mean companies can demand better terms);
- It provides financial resilience in global competition.
Altman’s goal of $1 trillion is essentially about asserting OpenAI’s position as a leader in the AI revolution. This valuation represents a claim about whether AI can truly replace human intelligence—a question that cannot be answered by financial documents alone but requires decades to prove. By waiting, Altman aims to let time validate this assertion, although the market must navigate this uncertainty together.
In Conclusion
OpenAI’s decision to postpone its IPO is a gamble on the value of AI: Altman believes that time will prove the legitimacy of its $1 trillion valuation, while the market is testing whether he can wait until then. If Anthropic goes public first, it could potentially reveal the outcome of this debate sooner than expected.