Summary of the Key Points
This article focuses on the current AI-driven global tech boom and discusses three main aspects: First, there is a significant market divergence—stocks in the AI industry chain are soaring, while traditional sectors (such as pharmaceuticals and food and beverages) are experiencing continuous declines. Second, there is a great disagreement among industry experts about whether AI represents a bubble (some believe it will burst, while others see it as a positive sign of accelerated innovation). Third, regulatory authorities are taking measures to curb speculation, but the trend of AI as a productivity revolution is irreversible; even if the bubble bursts, it will leave behind valuable infrastructure. The article concludes by emphasizing that, whether you invest or not, you should embrace the AI era.
Market Divergence: A World of Contrast between AI and Non-AI
The current stock market is like "half water and half fire":
- AI-related stocks are skyrocketing: For example, Shengyi Technology (copper-clad plate manufacturer) saw its price rise from 28 yuan to 178 yuan in one year; Zhongji Xuchuang (optical module company) once had a market value exceeding that of Moutai; Zhipu (large-scale model developer) saw its stock price increase by 15 times within five months (from HK$131 to over HK$2,000). These companies are either suppliers of materials for AI servers or key components for data transmission.
- Non-AI sectors are struggling: Nearly 700 stocks have fallen below their levels from the "9.24 market crash" last year, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and real estate performing poorly. Analysts simply refer to this divergence as "AI and everything else"—anything not related to AI is considered less attractive.
In short, AI-related companies are experiencing rapid growth, while those without AI involvement are struggling.
The Great Debate about the AI Bubble: Experts in Disagreement
There are different opinions within the industry regarding whether AI represents a bubble:
- Bubble Critics (Yang Dong): Yang Dong from Ningquan Asset Management, known for warning about market risks, believes that the current ratio of global stock market value to GDP (the Buffett Index) is 240 in the United States, higher than at the peak of the internet bubble. He suggests that popular AI stocks in the A-share market could fall by 80%-90% and advises against investing.
- Pragmatic View (Chen Long): Chen Long, former strategic officer at Ant Group, argues that the current valuation of NASDAQ is only half of what it was during the internet bubble, and NVIDIA's P/E ratio is much lower than Cisco’s. He believes AI represents a revolution in computing paradigms (from CPU to GPU-based parallel computing), with real demand and no risk of oversupply in the short term.
- Optimists (Zhu Xiaohu): Zhu Xiaohu from Jinsha River Venture Capital argues that there is no bubble in AI. With 1 billion white-collar workers globally, replacing 20% of their jobs with AI would create a market worth $8 trillion, and the current investment of only $800 billion is reasonable.
- Neutral View (Deng Xiaofeng): Deng Xiaofeng from Gaoyi Capital notes that AI has already changed the profit distribution in industries such as energy and metals. AI-related sectors account for nearly half of industrial profits, indicating that it’s more than just speculation but a real opportunity.
Regulatory Intervention: Cooling Down the Hype
Regulators are stepping in to curb excessive speculation:
- Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated at the Lujiazui Forum that "hot topic manipulation and concept-chasing" will be strictly investigated.
- That same night, 72 AI-related companies issued risk warnings.
- The Shanghai Stock Exchange advised companies not to get involved in speculative hot topics.
These actions aim to prevent reckless speculation by retail investors and protect them from losses, without denying the long-term value of AI.
The Nature of the Bubble: A "Bad Bubble" or a "Good Bubble?"
The article cites the book *Prosperity* to classify bubbles into two types:
- Bad Bubbles (Mean Reversion): Examples include the 2008 subprime mortgage bubble, which was based on false promises of high returns with no risk. Such bubbles leave nothing behind but disaster.
- Good Bubbles (Inflection Point Bubbles): Examples include the railway and internet bubbles, which, due to technological progress, left behind valuable infrastructure (such as Google and Amazon after the internet boom). These bubbles drive social advancement.
AI falls into the latter category—even if it bursts in the future, it will leave behind essential infrastructure, large-scale model technologies, and AI application ecosystems that will change the world. Max from Oaktree Capital also argues that the fervor around bubbles can accelerate the adoption of new technologies, although it may involve waste of funds, which is still better than slow progress.
What Should Ordinary People Do?
The article does not provide investment advice but summarizes the experts’ perspectives:
- Max’s Advice: Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket to prevent a complete loss; also, don’t completely avoid investing to miss out on potential gains. Select carefully.
- Taleb’s Strategy: Use a "barbell strategy"—85%-90% of your assets in conservative investments (such as deposits and government bonds), and 10%-15% in high-risk AI sectors (which, even if they lose value, won’t significantly impact your daily life).
- Author’s Reflection: Regardless of whether you invest or not, learn about AI. The future is inseparable from AI; it is an essential part of our progress.
In conclusion, the article suggests that the AI bubble could be one of the most valuable in history, with potential for sustained growth despite fluctuations. We may dislike bubbles, but we cannot ignore the impact AI is having on the world. (Again, this is just a personal reflection and not an investment guide.)